The investment..speculation, out right gambling thread

I played golf with my son yesterday.

Did I miss anything? :slight_smile:

I see the es futures are up quite a bit.

^Go play golf another day and you wouldn’t notice anything ever happened.

Best bet–short volatility. If there is another spike, add to the position.

Looks like I was way wrong.

@Vladenshlutte , you were so close to being a market guru! No offense to you really, but I get such a kick out of reading article after article after article predicting a stock market crash. These articles have been increasing in frequency since the S&P took out its previous 2007 alltime high of 1565ish, and that was back in March 2013. Sure, I have been getting uncomfortable with the market, but I am not smart enough to get out 1 day or 1 week before the crash. I started “lightening up” at S&P 1500… so what good did that do me? But what I see (and the point of this rant) is an almost daily forecast of an imminent crash, and the guy who is lucky enough to print his article last week becomes the latest market guru because he predicted the crash. My “mark to market” portfolio value has taken a pretty big hit from the highs. Maybe I have too much equity exposure. I better have a look. My typical reaction to large stock market declines is to not look! I hate the feeling of being manipulated.

Well, looks like it did crash at the end of the day. What happened?

More people wanted to sell than wanted to buy.

My H should be happy I procrastinated and didn’t invest his Sep Ira money. I have a lot of money in our IRA’s sitting in cash, should I be buying?

Looks like hedgies etc. are not willing to hold stocks overnight fearing yet another Chinese trick.

According to fund outflows, a lot of retail investors have been out of the market for a while. Does anybody know what percentage of the trading during the day and particularly the last hour is hft?

There was a large sell order at the close. I doubt this was a hft order.

There are other institutions that exist that aren’t hft firms.

Stocks do go up and down. A friend of mine received calls from 3 family member panicking. They wanted to sell everything.

Yesterday, Wilbur Ross said that we are in the 6th inning of the selloff - that must make everybody optimistic :slight_smile:

How many runs are scoring in the ninth inning? :slight_smile:

I have a relative who seems to commonly buy high and sell low. Not a great strategy.

This is someone I trust explicitly: http://www.cnbc.com/2015/08/25/selloff-not-due-to-high-frequency-trades-hft-ceo.html

No blame and no trophies for hft firms.

I am out of the biz. Almost 3 years. I don’t know what is happening now.

I do have my biggest loss in stocks in over 20 years right now. Its a little annoying. :slight_smile:

At least I am not doing what these guys are doing.

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/stock-burned-two-hedge-fund-215531511.html

I don’t think there are many financial genuises in this world. I find it amusing. When stocks go down, genuises lose too.

I want the fed to raise rates. 1/4 of a point is meaningless and people will stop panicking when they realize nothing collapses with a 1/4 point rate rise.

This is an interesting article to read.

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/08/25/opinion/joe-nocera-the-man-who-got-china-right.html?ribbon-ad-idx=4&rref=opinion&module=Ribbon&version=context&region=Header&action=click&contentCollection=Opinion&pgtype=article

What’s happening in China’s stock market in the last 2 weeks reminds me of the Nasdaq in March 2000. Once investors realized that profits and PE ratios actually mattered(!!), it was downhill from there for quite a while…
I suspect the stock market in China is ( still) similarly overpriced and has a lot more hot air to lose…
And that volatility will affect other markets.
“Keep Calm and Carry On”

edit- no one I’ve listened to or read is predicting a recession for the US. Its just going to be bumpy for maybe quite a while as the rest of the world deals with China’s bursting bubble and other countries growing pains.

Interesting. My view is there are no financial geniuses in the world. I always try to start with the premise that I don’t know sh** about what is going to happen. I do feel that we’re not going to go into recession so I don’t think that we will get a big bear market.

I’ve been getting killed in xle - both on the long side (calls), and the put spreads that I sold to pay for the put spreads I bought. I’ll probably buy some more xle puts but sell spy put spreads out to January to pay for them. The implied volatility is high and I wouldn’t terribly mind being assigned on those spy puts since they are well below the current prices.

Anybody buying xiv etc? I’ve

There are some financial geniuses.

I am not the one that is posting links of these guys. :slight_smile:

One thing that happens is somebody comes up with a great idea. Then the idea is copied until all the profit is taken out.

I may buy some xiv. In 2011, xiv traded $7?