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<p>He’s just explaining Europe and Greece and why the situation is untenable. If you already know what’s happening there, then don’t bother reading it. I just read about it every other month or so to keep up with the long-dragging spectacle.</p>
<p>Lol…BCEagle91…you are only reading 1 out of 8 or so pieces. </p>
<p>Like I said…I do like the chart link.</p>
<p>I choose not to play in a significant way…50 % cash/bonds, knowing i am losing some, short 20%, long 30%…i was long during the recession/ financial crisis, adding at every downturn, but to recoup all of the losses in 3± years, is crazy…volumes are still terrible , so unless it turns around, how can the market move higher? It is like musical chairs…</p>
<p>I think it is interesting that my friends who work with major investment houses hold no stocks…though nit sure if that is corporate policy, or their personal choice, or the PIA it is to get approval to purchase stock…</p>
<p>The kelly criteria doesn’t just apply to horses, it applies to betting in general including the stock market. I’ve never used it but I know someone who uses it to some level in the market and plays the horses successfully all the time. Its a mathematical way of optimizing a series of bets - the Kelly criterion. There are a number of math papers written on the topic.</p>
<p>Your friends might not be able to hold stocks.</p>
<p>A friend who manages quite a bit only holds stocks because he has money in his fund.</p>
<p>To own stocks outside his fund is a nightmare… Why do you personnaly own this? Why don’t you own that.</p>
<p>I am about as long as you…and without the short exposure…</p>
<p>I don’t know if because I have worked in the business or not.</p>
<p>It was easier to have my portfolio like this when interest rates were higher.</p>
<p>It is harder now…</p>
<p>Stock values are ok…especially compared to money markets or bonds…</p>
<p>Stocks are going to have decades when they outperform most asset classes…</p>
<p>And I don’t need to make a ton…and I can tell you don’t either.:)</p>
<p>Maybe low interest rates don’t matter to you…</p>
<p>But zero interest rates are not going to cut it for me…</p>
<p>I don’t like the pushing of dividend stocks when the return on dividends is so historically low…</p>
<p>I think that could be a trap several years out…but maybe not…no guarantees…</p>
<p>I had a good feel for things for a very long time…but right now…I don’t.</p>
<p>Used to play the Horses in a big way in late 70’s and early 80’s and can say without exception, and with detailed facts it is FIXED…maybe not the big stakes races, as i am only familiar with race tracks in tri-state area</p>
<p>Yeah…I had a slight feeling it had to do with math.</p>
<p>The odds in horseracing are so poor…but I guess some people beat the odds.</p>
<p>I guess I could just ask my daughter what Kelly is. :)</p>
<p>^^ This individual is successful and bets on the order of 10 - $20,000 each time.</p>
<p>I would like to have more, perhaps should have more,lol…but we have chosen to live life NOW, and perhaps scrimp when we get to our 70’s…in the meantime, we are fully paying our 3 kids college education to privates, eating at fine establishments,vacationing as we choose, and we are very blessed and fortunate…we are following Japan, so low interst rates will be here for quite awhile…i remeber giving power of attorney to a relative to refi our mortgage in the late 80’s from 12% to 10%, lol</p>
<p>I like this explanation…especially the end…</p>
<p>[Kelly</a> Criterion Explained](<a href=“http://www.jimgeary.com/poker/letters/KELLY.HTM]Kelly”>http://www.jimgeary.com/poker/letters/KELLY.HTM)</p>
<p>"“Bet the fraction of your bankroll equal your percentage advantage divided by the ‘to-1’ odds.”</p>
<p>For example, if you have a 10% advantage and you are getting 5-to-2 odds, then the fraction of your bankroll to bet is (0.10)/2.5 = 0.04 = 4%."</p>
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<p>I get his articles via email. I look at the title, if it interests me, then I read the first paragraph, if it is still interesting, then I read the whole thing. If I’m busy, I delete a lot of emails without reading them.</p>
<p>BCEagle91…we are doing the same thing. :)</p>
<p>Qdogpa…
“I would like to have more, perhaps should have more,lol…but we have chosen to live life NOW, and perhaps scrimp when we get to our 70’s…”</p>
<p>We have to make choices. We might as well choose our first choice instead of our second choice. :)</p>
<p>That Japan scenario doesn’t excite me. Under that scenario…we might as well have deflation. A one percent return in a 3 percent inflation world is a killer over time.</p>
<p>I was kind of happy to see commodity prices get crushed. Takes a little pressure off inflation.</p>
<p>I see the esfutures are starting to rally…in a small way…</p>
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<p>My gasoline bill goes way down now that the semester is over.</p>
<p>There’s been a glut in gasoline and crude in the US for quite some time so it’s just a return to reality. On the other hand, the reason for the glut is declining demand and I don’t think that it’s due to price.</p>
<p>The other problem is that lower commodity prices are also reflecting a stronger dollar which isn’t good for US multinationals.</p>
<p>So…for my own selfish, self interest, a redundancy… :)</p>
<p>Do I lose more by owning multinationals than I gain by the drop in commodity prices?</p>
<p>And if I am a buyer if stocks go lower, do I care if prices drop?</p>
<p>Deflation is right around the corner…my favorite wine i can buy online for 25% off, no tax, delivered for free… My monthly grocery bill has not signinfcantly increased over the last 5 years, accordding to my Quicken program,though kids are older,so less junk food…my interest rate on my home is a pittance,…however DW is not seeing inflation beating increases, though she does ok;)</p>
<p>As I said earlier, there are three major problems that we face in the US markets and I don’t see quick resolutions to any of them this year so it’s kind of a crappy fundamental background for stocks. Of course the Fed could come out and buy us all another round and we could get a nice pop which I’d love to participate in but in the near term, if you have to hold stocks, hold good ones.</p>
<p>"My monthly grocery bill has not signinfcantly increased over the last 5 years, "</p>
<p>All I can say is amazing, we’re seeing our foodbill go up constantly but of course this isn’t included in the cpi that doesn’t include the costs of food and energy which are volatile - LOL</p>
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<p>It’s been here for a while - in the form of energy consumption. But it’s taken a while for that to trickle down to prices.</p>
<p>I see deflation in pro stock tennis racquets. In December/January, stuff that was put up for sale got sold quickly. Inventory is moving quite slowly right now. A lot of the pro stock demand (and supply) comes from Europe and I can only assume that people can’t afford these luxuries. I’m also wondering if pros are putting more of them on the market because they need the cash.</p>
<p>Doct, we also eat out more often,so perhaps that reduces costs at grocercy store…but i was pleasantly surprised to see costs not increase significantly…</p>