<p>Nobody’s counting chickens. Clinton chief strategist Mark Penn said on Nightline that nobody gets through a Presidential campaign without a [political] near-death experience. It can all come crashing down with one big mistake. </p>
<p>That’s why the thing I look at in handicapping a race: which campaigns are making mistakes? Going off message? Missing opportunities?</p>
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This is unfounded speculation that plays out like Republican reputation arson – the sort of thing that made ‘Swift-Boating’ a verb, as in ‘to Swift-Boat’ someone.</p>
<p>I’m sure we will see quite a bit of these low, dirty tactics from Republicans as we get closer to the elections.</p>
<p>…cue coincidental appearance of Osama bin Laden in the media, and the response by our C in C.</p>
<p>Are you suggesting that Bush somehow engineered the new tape by bin Laden? I mean, if he’s that powerful, wow! And who knew that CNN was in the pocket of the GOP?</p>
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I live in Massachusetts – not exactly a red state.</p>
<p>What I think the wishful thinkers on the left are missing is that those of us who have evolved into more conservative thinking are unlikely to suddenly support a Democrat for President. It’s just not going to happen. In fact, I almost think that the best thing for conservatives would be Hillary’s nomination – she’s just the right polarizing force to get the Republican base moving.</p>
<p>So, sjmom, which among the Republican candidates do you like and why? Make me see your ‘evolved’ point of view…I’m willing to listen and maybe learn. Who knows? I may prove to be capable of ‘evolving’ myself.</p>
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<p>My advice to the Republicans in the fall election: bring on all the hatred you can muster. Make Kenneth Starr your campaign spokesman. In the words of a true Republican hero, “Make my day!”. </p>
<p>Not that they need any encouragement. The Republicans will be like Dr. Strangelove trying to control his hand with the Hillary attacks.</p>
<p>The more they attack Clinton with their rehashed smear machine nonsense instead of talking about the issues middle class women and families care about, the more they will drive women to the polls to vote for her. The fact that she has taken incoming fire from grumpy old Republican white dudes for fifteen years and is not only still standing, but the favorite to become the first female president is the thing people respect about her. At this point, it’s so predictable that Republican attacks just make women voters say, "You go, girl!" </p>
<p>The Republicans will be a fantastic get-out-the-vote operation for Hillary when they go that route. She’ll be talking about how to bring family members home from Iraq, help families with health care, and improve education while the party of the angry old white dudes are attacking her, her husband, her daugher, and her family dog. She’ll laugh off the attacks and say, “Let’s talk about something American cares about like hard-working single mothers trying to find affordable childcare.”</p>
<p>Ask Carl Bernstein how the sales of his blockbuster autobiography are going. One of the most famous political reporters of a generation. Spends 8 years writing the definitive biography of one of the largest pop culture political icons of our time. From all accounts, a textured, interesting book. But, he takes his PR agent’s advice that it will sell more books if he presents the book as a hit piece “because everyone hates Hillary”. The American public says “screw you” and steadfastly refuses to even look at his book, let alone buy it. Now, he’s back for a second shot at the talk shows, trying to breath some life into his moribund sales by recasting his book as a depiction of a “wonderfully complex, engaging, effective woman.”</p>
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<p>I can’t speak for those on left. After all, I’m an independent who has cast votes for two of the most prominent Republicans. I can speak to the electoral college map and Hillary doesn’t need any votes from conservative Republicans to win the election.</p>
<p>All she needs is the Kerry blue states plus either Ohio or Florida. She is currently leading all the potential Republicans in both of those states. She is also currently leading all Republican contenders in the following Bush states:</p>
<p>Virginia
West Virginia (Byrd will deliver WV to his girl Hillary)
Kentucky
Iowa
Arkansas (a huge lead, 18% to 28% depending on the Repub)
New Mexico</p>
<p>It’s funny how the Dems have made “swift-boating” into a verb yet they are the ones doing the “swift-boating”. Note that the allegations made by the Swift Vote Vets for Truth have not been disproven while Kerry had to back off his claims. At the same time, none of the allegations of “Bush lied” have been proven, yet the Dems persist in promulgating this smear and ID has even extended the smear to Fred Thompson. I’d say that we should send a mirror to every Dem activist but, for it to be effective, it would require them to open their eyes. Not much chance of that.</p>
<p>ID, add Colorado and Nevada to the list of states that, at the very least, Clinton will force Republicans to have to defend if she doesn’t carry them. 2008 is shaping up as reverse of 2000, when the Democrats had to pull an inside straight to win. Funny thing is, that if all votes in Florida were counted correctly, they probably would have; without the “butterfly ballot” fiasco, they definitely would have.</p>
<p>The Rassmussen poll–which while it has its flaws and a Republican tilt is good because it’s a nice long-term longitudinal poll such that even if it’s off, it’s off fairly consistently and thus is good for tracking movement in opinion if not always absolute value–shows that between 16-18 percent of the electorate are strong Bush supporters. It’s nice to gawk at them on-line because there aren’t many around here…the W’04 bumper stickers have dried up even in Orange County. Many former Bush supporters are now embarrassed and many of those still hanging in are doing so in a sullen silence. I have friends working voter registration who say there’s a steady disgusted stream changing their registrations from Republican to independent…anecdotal evidence but it dovetails with other observations.</p>
<p>Hmmm…people don’t want to read a book that labels Hillary as “inauthentic,” or they just don’t want to read a book about Hillary. ;)</p>
<p>I’m still not so sure about NH and Hillary.</p>
<p>Many of the people in attendance at the Portsmouth Clinton rally may have been from out of state (MA & ME), or not old enough to vote.</p>
<p>The friend that my daughter went with was from Maine. His parents are leaning toward Obama. The only (NH) friends I know who attended this event went to see Bill, not Hillary. There actually may be a lot of closet non-supporters in NH.</p>
<p>Obama and Edwards are spending a lot of time and $$ in NH. I still think it is way too early to project the election results here.</p>
<p>sokkermom:</p>
<p>Put New Hamphire in the bank for Clinton. She has the entire Democratic Party organization in the state behind her.</p>
<p>Last Sunday, the following made appearances with her at the various rallies:</p>
<p>Gov John Lynch
Speaker of the State House: Terie Norelli
State Senate President: Sylvia Larson
US Congresswoman: Carol Shea-Porter</p>
<p>And, for The Dad’s senate race spreadsheet, the local gossip page had Bill and Hillary Clinton enjoying a festive dinner with Jeanne and Bill Shaheen at a Portsmouth restaurant after the rally I attended. </p>
<p>Bill Shaheen is Clinton’s NH campaign chair. Jeanne Shaheen is the three-term former governor who is all but certain to announce for the Senate race against John Sununu. She lost a close election to him in 2002 after which four top GOP officials, including the state party chairman pled guilty to federal charges of illegal election tampering for the successful phone jamming operation to cripple the Democrats get-out-the-vote effort on election day. Sununu is toast.</p>
<p>Here’s the latest polling trendlines in New Hampshire. There haven’t been any polls since the Labor Day Hill 'n Bill rallies or since Clinton hit the airwaves with TV advertising the day before yesterday:</p>
<p><a href=“Pollster”>Pollster;
<p>Obama drew a disappointing crowed to his Labor Day rally. I’ve seen estimates as low as 400, but 1000 is probably a fair number. Clinton drew 4500 in Concord and 5000 in Portsmouth.</p>
<p>Obama made $5000 donations to the campaigns of every Congressman in New Hampshire and Iowa. He netted one endorsement: Paul Hoad in New Hampshire whose pitch in introducing Obama in Manchester was “Barack Obama makes politics cool again.”</p>
<p>‘Swift-Boating’ - You mean exposing somebody for the fraud that they are? Yes the truth really hurts if you are a smarmy little weasel who turns on your band of brothers and calls them murderers.</p>
<p>Hillary is the only Democrat running the Republicans would be odds on favorites to beat. Her negatives are through the roof and the LoonyLeft of the party hates her.</p>
<p>BTW I think we are about one election cycle away from major political realignment in this country. There are serious ideolgical splits within both parties and neither party is addressing the issues that really motivate the American public.</p>
<p>Higherlead–you mean a third party? Maybe 4 parties? That bears some thought…</p>
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You Republicans must really be in full panic mode to come up with something that inarticulate.</p>
<p>…Especially when speaking of a decorated and acknowledged war veteran, who happened to speak his mind, and quite courageously, about a doomed situation. </p>
<p>Have you thanked a veteran for his service today?</p>
<p>And how’s your service record?</p>
<p>And that of your Dear Leader?</p>
<p>“Have you thanked a veteran for his service today?”</p>
<p>No I haven’t but I also haven’t called them baby killers.</p>
<p>My service record is worse than Bush’s, but better than Bill Clinton’s. I neither volunteered for the National Guard like W nor lied to get out of serving like Clinton.</p>
<p>Actually higherlead your service record is better that Bush’s too. When he was in the NC, and after we the people paid a qurater million bucks for his pilot training, he was stripped of his flying privledges because he found it inconvenient to take the requrird physical exam. I might add, an exam which had recently been modified to include drug testing.</p>
<p>It will be easy to tell when Sen. Clinton has the NH race in the bag when Sokkermom posts that she has decided to vote for the senator the race is over …Sen. Clinton wins NH and almost certainly the White House …</p>
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<p>Another post from the not-Right alternate universe, where Bush’s occasional effort in defense of the Texas Homeland is heroic, and Kerry’s service under fire in Vietnam is cowardly.</p>
<p>From Post 207 Note that the allegations made by the Swift Vote Vets for Truth have not been disproven while Kerry had to back off his claims</p>
<p>The above statement made in post 207 is just not true. The lies told by the Swift Boat vets were lies when they were told at the behest of the Nixon Administration and they were lies when told at the behest of Bush Administration.</p>