<p>I know we have a few statistics types out there, so please feel free to help me out with this train of thought.</p>
<p>I am trying to work out how many “real” lurkers there are. I looked at a few posts, and there are always way more views than posts… BUT: how many represent people who are new to the thread and who haven’t posted at all?</p>
<p>So, take a very popular thread–universal essay advice, with 116 posts and 12,000 views (more or less).</p>
<p>If each person who posts views his own post and checks again after every new post, without ever looking before posting, you’d have 116+115+114+…+1 posts or (average value)(number of posts) = (116/2)*116 posts = 6728 views right there.</p>
<p>Which implies that for every lurker there is a poster, at least in this thread, although this method would tend to overestimate the number of views by posters, since I think many of us let several posts go by between views. </p>
<p>But: lots of known posters didn’t post on that thread.</p>
<p>So maybe there aren’t that many lurkers who never post?</p>
<p>There is one serious flaw in your analysis, and anyone who looks at “views” should note. The true “lurker” has not even registered on the forum but merely reads the posts. If you are not registered, you can read all the posts, but you will not add to the view count. In fact, even if you are registered but not logged in, you will not advance the view count. My browser automatically logs me out. So when I start looking at CC I may “view” a dozen or more threads before I finally register and reply. So let’s not waste too much brain power worrying about “lurkers” If the software does not work the way I have described, pls set me straight.</p>
<p>dmd77:
You can take the girl out of the Tute, but you can’t take the Tute out of the girl. I don’t think there is enough predictability or consistency to write a formula to describe the lurking/posting pattern. I would guess it to be idiosyncratic and topic/poster specific. Just my humble opinion based on my own experience. But then, I was course 7…</p>
<p>In my own mind I have moved from occasional poster to even less consistent lurker status at this point (I already had, this one is the last post- i couldn’t resist) as according to my calculation I have gained 10 pounds, increased my stress level and am not sure I have meaningfully improved this process for myself, or my son. This can be considered an “outcome specific” response, but no matter…Last year I found CC when the eldest had been accepted to many places and we were looking for 1st hand experience with the schools. This year, ED now a done deal, I will resume regular CC participation, and perhaps regular posting, when the younger son is in the same (hopefully fortunate) position. Until then…the episodic lurk it will be!</p>
<p>The consistent experience in a lot of online fora is that about 10 percent of the reading members post enough to be noticed. The great majority of most “members” on most online fora just lurk and don’t post. Management here would undoubtedly have figures for how many registered members they have, and how many have a post count less than, say, 2.</p>
<p>Considering that the site tells you when a thread is new since you’ve last posted, and how many posts there are, I doubt that everyone acts the way that DMD posits. </p>
<p>Instead - how about the types like me who skim through a thread and post if it is interesting or you have something worthwhile to say? </p>
<p>NJ: will work on figuring out if the software works as you describe.</p>
<p>It’s true that I look for a rational solution if possible–that is the MIT influence, and it certainly drives the less-scientifically-inclined members of my family and acquaintance slightly nuts. So many people were commenting on the “large number” of lurkers, but it made more sense to me that most people post–at least occasionally–so I tried to work out the marh. I thought about asking the moderators how many people are registered overall, but I am not sure they’d tell us, so I tried this method.</p>
<p>Oh, and Ariesathena–I was also course 7. 7A, actually.</p>
<p>Math isn’t my thing so I’m no help there, but I read a LOT more than I post. Heck, half of the ‘views’ could be mine! It doesn’t matter if I’ve posted in a thread or not.</p>
If the software does not work the way I have described, pls set me straight.</p>
</p>