Thoughts / Advice on Stats/EC's for Best Chance

Chance Me / Match Me
1

Hey everyone!

Rising senior here looking for some realistic advice as I start this college application process.

I attend a highly selective boarding school on the West coast and current have a 3.64 UW GPA / 4.22 W GPA. My biggest academic issue is that I struggled heavily in one freshman year class (Integrated Science; 2 terms physics (fall & winter), 2 terms chemistry (spring) after transitioning from a poor public school on the East coast that didn’t have a strong math program to boarding school on the West. I passed the first trimester (Pass/Fail for freshman in the fall trimester), and ended up with a D+ and F in winter and spring trimesters respectively. Since then, my transcript has been most A’s and A-'s with a strong upward trend, including honors-level humanities courses. I even retook the Integrated Science class in 10th grade and got straight A’s, as well as a science department commendation award.

Colleges of interest include: Brown, Tufts, Amherst College, Wesleyan, Macalester, Howard University, Emory, Connecticut College, UMass Amherst (a likely target), UMass Boston / Suffolk (If I REALLY have to).

Some of my main EC’s include:

  • Head of my school’s Black Student Union (senior year); formerly Assistant Head (junior year)

  • Freshman Boys’ Dorm Prefect ((description: mentor group of 30+ freshman boys, manage nightly check-ins, study hall check-ins, mentorship during our fall orientation camping week) senior year)

  • Admissions Tour Guide (10th, 11th, and senior year)

  • English and History Peer Tutor (11th, senior year)

  • Freshman Class President (9th)

  • Secretary of Ojai Valley Youth Council; helped plan and host the 26th annual MLK Jr. Day programming; attended by over 300+ residents.

  • Head of Caribbean Club (raised $750 this past December to aid Jamaica disaster relief after Hurricane Melissa)

My Awards and Honors so far are:

- Horatio Alger State Scholar ($10K)

  • Red Sox Scholar ($10K)
  • 7 Academic Commendation awards (school awards; 3x English, 2x History, 1x Science, 1x Art).

*Actively applying to 7 other scholarships (Coke Scholars, Ron Brown, Gates, Elks, Jackie Robinson, etc)

Other context:

- Black student

- First-gen

- Low income

- Interests in majoring in Psychology, History, and/or Sociology; also interested in African American studies

- Working w/ my junior year honors history teacher to revise my independent research paper on the history of Black cowgirls for submission to The Concord Review

*Planning on taking the SAT in August and this fall (recent PSAT was a 1150) and hoping for something in the high 1400s, though obviously we’ll see what happens. Working with a tutor for ten weeks and doing intensive supplemental study.

How much will those freshman-year grades hurt me at selective colleges if the rest of my transcript shows upward trajectory? What tier of schools do you guys think are realistic reaches, targets, safeties? If you were an AO or are one, what do you see as the strongest part of my application and what concerns you the most? Are there any areas that seem noticeably weak and worth strengthening for this application season?

Thank you for reading, looking forward to any advice and thoughts!

2

A “highly selective boarding school” probably has dedicated college counselors who know the history of what kinds of applicants from the school are more or less likely to be admitted to highly selective colleges that most outsiders can only say that they are reaches for everyone.

Have you asked your school’s college counselors, and what did they say?

Also, if you do not have much money, it is important for you and your parents to check net price calculators for each college of interest.

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3

Yeah, I talked to my college counselor and she mentioned that a lot of my schools (at the time when my GPA was at a 3.58 UW/4.0 W) that schools on my list were definitely challenging shots to apply for, as it is for anyone. But schools like Amherst and selective LACs will probably be a more convenient use of time for my profile specifically.

My junior year has been really strong, and my counselor said to continue to do well academically and she would handle the context aspect of my application (my GPA, freshman year science grade concern) via counselor recommendations and would even be willing to include a brief block comment from teachers who advocated to speak for me but cannot write me an official LOR.

I’ve briefly looked at net price calculators as well, it’s looking like pricing will pay in my favor, as I am extremely low income, my net contribution spans from 0-$1000 ($1000 covered by school work).

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4

I agree with @ucbalumnus that your boarding school probably has advisors that would be quite good. They also would be familiar with how other students from your school have done wrt university admissions.

Are you a Massachusetts resident? If so then I would be inclined to also consider U.Mass Lowell. Just to add: I do know a very small number of Massachusetts residents who got very good merit aid from U.Mass Lowell. Also, I expect that your uptrend will help you. I know that it requires quite a bit of work to produce this uptrend, and in the end I expect that this is going to help you a lot one way or another.

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Yes, I am a Mass resident. I considered UMass Lowell, but didn’t find it a college of interest in my college search. That was a lot earlier during my junior year, but maybe I’ll check it out again and see if my feelings have changed. Thanks for the suggestion!

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I think you are displaying an uncanny sense of your strengths and weaknesses for a FGLI student! It also sounds as if your parents are highly invested in the process. All of that is great. As an ex-FGLI myself, I agree with your combination of medium-sized, highly endowed, privates, LACs, and a nationally ranked HBCU. Personally, I think Macalester, Amherst and Wesleyan represent a kind of sweet spot in terms of campus atmosphere (liberal suburban) and selectivity (between 10-30%) though Hotlanta, I’m sure, has its fans. I also think Amherst and Wesleyan would be somewhat forgiving of frosh year, high school hiccups.

You’ll need a good essay. Figure out some way to signal your cultural and economic background in an otherwise well-written and personalized way (do NOT resort to using AI in order to make it sound professional.)

Good luck.

7

Do the D and F grades still show on your transcript, or were they replaced? How many other non-A’s are on your transcript?

What is your class rank? (estimate it if your school does not rank)

What schools has your counselor suggested? There is not much difference between a 3.58 and 3.64 in terms of your profile and school list/categorization. With that said, obviously an upward trend is good. I defer to your counselor for categorization of schools. A strong test score will also help you at the relatively selective schools.

Run NPCs with your parents for all schools on your list.

You are going to need at least one highly likely school for admission that is also affordable, two or more if you ultimately want to be sure you have a choice. Is that UMass Boston and Suffolk? (Not sure Suffolk will be affordable at your level of income, run the NPC)

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8

This tells me that you should lean on your school’s counselors most heavily.

Okay, the school counselor is saying that lots of your schools are challenging shots. Which schools on your list? How did your counselor classify the rest of your list?

You may also look into Scholar Match and Posse Foundation as routes to major funding.

I can’t really say. I suspect that schools that do a deeper dive with each application (vs. a big public with tons of apps that might look more at the high-level stats than at the full transcript) will be better for you. It will also depend on how many As there are on your transcript vs. A-s (and lower).

As others have said, lean on your school’s guidance counselors. But I recommend that ALL students focus on their “safeties.” It should be a school that is extremely likely to accept you, be affordable for your family, AND that you would be happy to attend. Ideally, I think there should be at least two sure things on your application list, which means that no matter what else happens with the rest of your application that you are able to make a choice in the spring about which school is the best fit for you. I would not underestimate the power that being able to choose one’s college is in terms of leading to a happier attitude when going off to college.

This statement does not make me think it would be a good safety for you. You either need to learn more about the schools and programs that would make you excited to attend, or you need to find an alternative safety.

I am not an AO. But what speaks to me are your school awards. These are the people who see you day in and out who are impressed by you and want you representing their school (as a tour guide), guiding the newest students (prefect), and want to write recommendations for you even though you have more people who want to recommend you than you can submit letters for. That says a lot about you, and it’s all positive in my mind.

Your grades (and, potentially, your test scores) are the areas where I would have the greatest concern. Most of the colleges you’re applying to will have a good idea as to whether there is grade inflation at your school. Depending on whether there is will indicate how harmful the grades are. And it’s not just the ones from freshman year. Getting “most A’s and A-’s” means that there are other letter grades on your transcript, and a number of the schools you’re applying to are more used to the straight A or nearly straight A applicant. Doesn’t mean it’s impossible for you, but it’s definitely going to be an obstacle.

I would definitely study for ACT/SAT. I would take a practice one of each under timed conditions to see which one you do better on, as some people do markedly better on one than the other. And then I would focus on test prep for the one that you do better with. A strong test score will definitely help to alleviate concerns about your academic preparation for the highly rejective colleges.

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You might check out Berea College in Kentucky, which offers free tuition for all students. It’s ranked in the T50 for LACs and was the first interracial and coed college in the south. Also the Questbridge program may be of interest. The top-tier schools on your list will be a lottery ticket (as they are for everyone) but you never know. I do think LACs would give you the best shot at some big merit awards.

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You may want to look at Northeastern University as another option. The average net price for families in your income range looks favorable. Additionally, they offer a number of routes for entry that have a higher admit rate than their listed one (i.e. if students are willing to start in the spring semester or students who start at a non-Boston campus for their first year, including many locations abroad).

You don’t have any western colleges on your list, but Pitzer (CA) might be a school to consider. It’s part of the Claremont Consortium, so though Pitzer itself has about 1200 undergrads, when combined with the other consortium members, it’s more like 5-6k students, I believe. Pitzer is strong in your areas of interest and it is test blind, so your test score won’t matter, no matter what it is.

For some likely admits, I would take a good look at Drew (NJ). It has about 1600 undergrads and is a short train ride (45-50m) from New York City. And I just created this chart based on info in College Navigator (the feds’ website). It’s sorted by the school’s admission rate, from highest to lowest. I also listed the average net price for the schools by various income levels below $75k. Some of these are schools I considered, but based on the net prices I do not think would be advisable applications, though I left them in here for informational purposes (i.e. no need to repeat the work).

Clark is in Massachusetts, so there may potentially be scholarships/grants available from the MA government that could be used here (or at Wheaton, but its average net price is higher). Hamline is in Saint Paul, so is in the Twin Cities, like Macalester. And Gustavus Adolphus and St. Olaf are about an hour from the Twin Cities, but offer very strong academics and great net prices for lower incomes (in comparison with many other schools that are not super-rejective). Goucher is in Baltimore and is part of a consortium that allows students to take classes at Johns Hopkins and Morgan State (HBCU), among others. Oglethorpe is also part of the Atlanta consortium that allows students to take classes at other area colleges like Emory, Spelman, and Morehouse.

School State Admission Rate $0-30k Avg. Net Price $30-48k Avg. Net Price $48-75k Avg. Net Price
Oglethorpe GA 88% $16,207 $17,558 $18,745
Hamline MN 88% $15,371 $18,001 $16,767
Hood MD 78% $12,424 $14,454 $19,837
Goucher MD 78% $13,471 $18,066 $20,403
North Central IL 77% $12,507 $13,486 $16,362
York PA 74% $12,927 $14,581 $17,024
Seton Hall NJ 73% $19,623 $21,869 $27,194
Muhlenberg PA 72% $12,302 $16,629 $19,717
Drew NJ 68% $15,224 $15,697 $20,916
Wheaton MA 68% $20,076 $21,528 $28,299
Hobart William Smith NY 64% $14,650 $12,639 $22,108
Beloit WI 63% $15,176 $16,482 $18,028
Gustavus Adolphus MN 61% $12,015 $10,783 $13,875
Washington College MD 57% $17,804 $22,722 $25,068
Ohio Wesleyan OH 56% $15,412 $10,706 $13,339
St. Lawrence NY 54% $13,420 $14,008 $19,401
St. Olaf MN 48% $10,404 $11,342 $12,584
Union NY 44% $11,776 $16,415 $23,941
Occidental CA 44% $20,705 $17,655 $21,468
Clark MA 40% $18,188 $13,313 $21,971
Oberlin OH 34% $18,774 $15,799 $22,123
Trinity CT 29% $11,054 $13,599 $18,325
Pitzer CA 25% $14,535 $7,769 $20,846
Skidmore NY 21% $9,932 $11,454 $15,855
Vassar NY 19% $15,953 $14,548 $14,126
Northeastern MA 5% $2,264 $2,436 $5,301

A number of the colleges I mentioned are part of Colleges That Change Lives, an association formed after a book by that name. The schools were originally identified by a former NY Times education editor, and the schools then formed a marketing group based on the name. I will link their profiles below, which are marketing materials, but I think their profiles do a good job of providing a sense of the school.

And my last note, the prices above are average net prices. It includes an allowance for books, transportation, miscellaneous expenses, etc. Some colleges are more generous than others in allotting money for those categories, which means they may look more expensive than others. So when you’re running the net price at schools, make sure to take note of the direct-billed expenses (i.e. tuition, fees, and room & board) to make an apples to apples comparison, even for schools in the same city.

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11

Question if this has to be an either/or question. C26’s D stayed on their transcript but only the replacement A was used in the GPA calculation. I believe this is California convention, at least for public schools (I am not sure either if OP’s “west coast” school is in CA or, if it is, whether private schools in the state usually follow the public convention.)

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Very thoughtful reply, thank you!

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Regarding your first question: Which schools on [my] list are challenging shots? How did [my] counselor classify the rest of your list?

Likely Brown, Tufts, Amherst are the most challenging. But my counselor said especially that Brown would be the longest shot just because it’s an Ivy and my stats don’t make it appealing for AOs to consider me. So I have to really make my application the strongest spike it can be to have a shot.

For reference,

These are my grades from 9th-11th grade:

9th Grade

Fall (Pass/Fail)

  • English I: P

  • Math I: P

  • Mandarin I: P

  • Integrated Science I: P

  • World History: P

  • Introduction to the Arts: P

Winter

  • English I: A

  • Math I: A

  • Mandarin I: B

  • Integrated Science I: D+

  • World History: A

  • Introduction to the Arts: A

Spring

  • English I: A

  • Math I: A

  • Mandarin I: A-

  • Integrated Science I: F

  • World History: A

  • Introduction to the Arts: A

10th Grade

Fall

  • English II: A-

  • Math II: B

  • Mandarin II: A

  • Integrated Science I (retake): A

  • Non-Western History: A-

  • Honors Chamber Singers: A

Winter

  • English II: A

  • Math II: A-

  • Mandarin II: A-

  • Integrated Science I: A

  • Non-Western History: A-

  • Honors Chamber Singers: A

Spring

  • English II: A

  • Math II Honors: B-

  • Mandarin II: B+

  • Integrated Science I: A

  • Non-Western History: B+

  • Honors Chamber Singers: A

11th Grade

Fall

  • English III Honors: A-

  • Math III: A-

  • Mandarin III: A

  • Integrated Science II: B+

  • U.S. History Honors: A-

  • Chamber Singers Honors: A

Winter

  • English III Honors: A-

  • Math III: A-

  • Mandarin III: A-

  • Integrated Science II: A-

  • U.S. History Honors: A-

  • Chamber Singers Honors: A

Spring

  • English III Honors: A

  • Math III: A

  • Mandarin III: A-

  • Integrated Science II: A-

  • U.S. History Honors: A-

  • Chamber Singers Honors: A

Summary

B-range grades and LOWER:

  • 9th: B, D+, F

  • 10th: B, B-, B+, B+

  • 11th: B+

Everything else is A or A-. My 11th grade year has been my strongest year I believe.

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I go to school in CA, and the class that I retook my 10th grade year didn’t replace my 9th grade year.

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Does your school do rankings? Or indicate what approximate percentage you’re in (top 10%, 20%, 50%, etc.)?

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I’m reasonably certain what school OP attends and looks like, based on the most current school profile (so class of 2026, and OP is class of 2027…but that’s often how school profiles work unless the school does a six semester range after junior year), that OP’s rank based on unweighted GPA is around the 75%ile, while weighted GPA is around the class average.

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My school doesn’t do rankings, neither does it offer APs. Colleges know this.

But the counseling office tells us where our GPA UW + W place us based on quintiles.

Back when my GPA was a 3.62 UW and 4.17 W, my counselor said my UW places me in the top 3rd quintile, and my W in the top 2nd quintile. We have 66 students in our class.

I’m pretty sure my internal quintile ranking has risen for my W gpa, but maybe unlikely that my UW quintile ranking went up.

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