To those wanting IB in next couple years

[LaxAttack09]

<p>Posted on dealbreaker.com a leading wall street blog/tabloid. </p>

<p>

One of the people predicting a real slow-down is Jim Cramer, who states in his latest New York Magazine column that:</p>

<p>“In the past half-dozen years, the major brokerages in New York added hundreds of thousands of jobs in three areas: mortgage-bond sales and trading, private equity, and prime brokerage (the management of hedge funds’ brokerage accounts). Each has grown by leaps and bounds each year. Now all three are frozen. There are no mortgages to package and sell and no clients who want them. The private-equity deals are all hung. And the way I see it, the hedge-fund business is liable to be cut in half by the chain of mismarking and redemptions. I think that many of these firms have as many as 30 percent more people than they need right now in these departments, and all of them will be cashiered by the end of the year. The lists are being drawn up; the HR people notified. Not too close to the holidays, please! And for those who are left, sorry, no bonuses. The money was all eaten up by severances. Unlike other times on Wall Street, the jobs will dry up across the board, because so many firms have beefed up the same divisions. This time, get laid off at Bear, no walking across the street to Lehman. The departed will be cut off from billions in disposable income that fuel the New York economy.”</p>

<p>A little dramatic, but Cramer does have a few good points. There is less pressure on Wall Street firms to dramatically up the ante by doling out big bucks. Since a record number of Big Hitters was reached in June after a record round of hiring, there isn’t much pressure on the Street to recruit, or for firms to differentiate themselves with comp. In fact, it’s the opposite. You’re stuck at the party, and if you haven’t received an invite, you’re unlikely to crash, as hiring freezes are in effect at a number of firms.

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<p>Time to start networking!!</p>

[Denzera]

<p>fearmongering. this isn’t even like 2001-2002, much less 1987. He may be right that there will be layoffs (Citi already announced, back in may, that 13,000 jobs were being cut), but I don’t think it’s anything unusually horrific.</p>

<p>Cramer’s a genius but I’m not sure this will be worth the hype he’s giving it.</p>

[hallerbigballer]

<p>cramer isn’t that bright, don’t you people know he got fired from his own hedge fund?</p>

<p>he doesn’t even give HIS opinion, here is what he does…</p>

<p>he calls around the country to many different hedge funds and asks their opinion on a large number of stocks, and whatever the majority opinion is on a stock, that is what he will give.</p>

<p>everytime he goes against the grain, if you will, he is wrong, constantly. </p>

<p>if you look up to cramer as more than a fairly entertaining tv show host, then you have some problems, or are from oklahoma</p>

[Denzera]

<p>i’ve seen him come up with very compelling analysis on certain stocks before. One example: KMB, Kimberly-Clark, maker of pampers and baby wipes public-restroom paper towels and the like. He pointed out how tied to oil so many of their products were, and how while oil futures were going up (at the time), KMB was staying constant. He said once prices actually rose in the winter, KMB’s stock would go up. Sure enough, even beyond the usual 1-day bump that Cramer gives to his stock picks, over the next few months they were up 40-50%.</p>

<p>I think if you track his recommendations long-term, he’s not 100% but he’s better than 50%.</p>

[LaxAttack09]

<p>Cramer is an idiot? Surely you miss the fact that this man was one of the most successful associates in GS history. He became a legend on the street at GS and used that status to form 3 very successful companies. </p>

<p>The fact of the matter is this economy is in a downfall. It’s surely not 87 but the fact is the market is regulating back to the mean and the mean it’s 14k and probably not 13k either. By the time all the dust settles (which will be at least a year) it’s gonna be around 12/12.5. If you think IB jobs are gonna stay constant then you are absolutely crazy!!! Back in 01/02 one particular BB hired 8 analysts…8! And the other BB’s weren’t doing much better. Last year many of the BB’s hired upwards of 125 analysts. The days of the 100k bonus are gone, replaced with a 100k overall package (at least for the coming couple years).</p>