Transfer Odds? BU, NYU Gallatin, Fordham

Hey all! I’m applying for sophomore spring admission to BU, NYU, and Fordham. The issue is my GPA is low due to extenuating circumstances. I’ll explain.

It’s 3.21. However, my first semester I got an A, an A-, a B, a B, and C in Stats. I had an undiagnosed disability that was finally given accommodations for the second semester. Unfortunately, second semester was COVID semester and I only took two classes for credit, which I got an A and a B+ in. So the GPA was technically 3.67 in my second semester but it didn’t weigh heavily.

I’m now retaking the stats course and have an A in it at this point in late October, as well as all A’s in my other courses. The schools will have my midterm grades.

Will COVID and an undiagnosed (now diagnosed) disability be enough to make up for my GPA’s unsatisfactory number?

My SAT was pretty good (attempts range from 1450-1500, I accidentally submitted them all!). My HS GPA was 4.1. My college ec’s are very strong (VP of huge state school’s debate team, hold a position in the national debate league, have a congressional internship, a job teaching) and my hs ones are good too (worked with folks with disabilities, president of stu gov, etc) and my reason for transferring is good (these schools all have disability studies or some version of it, my current school doesn’t). My rec letter is amazing. I’m in the honors program where I am. I just want to add disability studies and can do that at these schools.

What do you think my odds are?