Perhaps you can help OP by sharing information about that group with them.
This is exactly why people on Reddit or CC or even an app support group can’t ‘chance’ someone, or give them ‘a straight answer of yes or no’ as you suggested above.
CC works best when posters who have knowledge of things share their experiences, as in this case, admissions for international applicants seeking full financial aid. No one told OP (or you for that matter) to not shoot your shot. But the simple message for those who are certain they want to transfer is that they have to cast a wider net than the Ivies, or T20s.