halflokum…I really hope you don’t permanently leave the forum. You have lots to offer and have given back to this community by paying it forward!
In any case, I totally agree with your post #9 and vvnstar’s post #8. I do not think program size has anything to do with retention rate.
Students leave all sorts of colleges and programs of many different reasons. One of my D’s best friends who is extremely talented in MT and got into many BFA in MT programs, eventually chose to leave CCM and after some time off, graduated from an Ivy League school and is not in MT any longer. MT students are like students everywhere. Things change. Their major may change. Their school may not fit. They have other issues that cause them to leave college, etc.
Back when my D went to NYU/Tisch/CAP21…I only recall a couple kids leaving from the entire class that started. One went to Broadway. One transferred to BOCO. There could have been a couple others, not sure. The class size did not change much by senior year.