I love the way you are thinking this process through. My input is to rely on your son’s private teacher to rate the audition school list. I copied my son and his teacher’s process from another thread below. Note that my son was looking at stand alone conservatories and university based programs, but he was not prioritizing non-music academics.
When my son applied, he and his teacher came up with a handful of schools where my son wanted to pursue/attend based on his criteria of teacher, opportunities in school and in the area and opportunity for merit money. He chose 2 “safeties” 2 “matches” and 2 “reaches”. The method for categorizing what was a safety/match was not specifically based on the acceptance rate of the program. It was based on other factors including:
- His teacher having a good idea of where my son’s level would rank at a particular program. This was based on his teacher placing a number of students each year.
- Any relationship with a professor at a prospective school. This was based on sample lessons/master classes.
- Knowing students and their level of playing who applied and were accepted in the year or two prior.
This process worked out well for my son. He landed at an amazing program with great merit!
Edited to add: I agree there is not really a music safety with an audition based program. However a very experienced teacher can help a lot with determining possibility of acceptance. We are forever grateful to my son’s teacher for his support and wisdom.