Is there a pattern to who gets spring scholar admit vs fall at Tulane?
Don’t know - but assuming it’s students they don’t feel are quite as strong or desirable for Tulane as other students - since there is no opportunity for merit aid:
“Students interested in joining Tulane as a Spring Scholar will be considered for all forms of need-based financial aid (including grants and scholarships) but merit scholarships are typically not available for students who begin in January.”
Unless something has changed, you used to have to check off on your application that you would consider Spring Scholar admittance. I would say that’s first and foremost in the “pattern”. I agree with @tsbna44 that beyond that they may look at whether or not the applicant expects to apply for FA or not.
Spring Scholars (like Spring admits at most schools) are used to backfill the student body for students that might complete complete their programs in the Fall semester and/or Freshman that don’t return for a second semester. Only the school has the data of how many they might be targeting from one year to the next.