Trying to figure out chances for my kid who was put in deferred list on friday 12/19/15. Based on what I have read I thought of calculating some percentages. I could be off a few hundreds to a couple thousands- as I would have no way of getting true numbers. Read that apparently U of M has decided to push most applicants to regular decision frame, avoid over enrollment, two students with same characteristics- like identical twins have different history of acceptance etc etc. So feel free to chime in : So this is pure chance calculator and not truly based on GPA/ACT/SAT for this post-
Total slots available: 16000
Total applicants: Early and regular : about 50,000 --So it would put it at about One in 3 chance of getting accepted (33%)
Total rejected: 5000 all time
Eligible: 45000.
Early action: Acceptance letter sent to 5000-- assume 100% will enroll and attend U of M
So remaining slots : 11000.
So to fill this 11000 slots: we have 45000 eligible - 5000 accepted early = 40000.
That leaves : about 1 in 4 (now at 25%).
Thoughts?
If by total slots available, you mean the class size, I would say that the number would be closer to 6,000. Keep in mind that a lot more are admitted, but not everyone admitted takes the offer.
Targeted Class size should be around 6000-6200.
The number of total admission would be around 13500-14000 (not 16000 due to higher yield rate).
Total applicant is likely between 55000 and 60000. It was over 50,000 last year while the EA applicants this year is at least 3000 more than last year.
Your assumption is incorrect from the class size to yield rate. So the rest is pretty meaningless.
Also, the admission office would not know the student commitment before the RD announcement as the deadline for deposit is May 1. Few students would commit even before seeing the estimated FA package which will not be available for another 3 months or so.
Last year, there were ~27000 EA applicant and approximately the same number of additional applicants for RD. They admitted a total of ~13500 (26%) with around 1/3 in the EA round. The yield rate was around ~45% that a bit over 6000 enrolled.
For a school like UM, you have to figure your numbers using two totally different buckets and sets of assumptions. Acceptance rates and yield for in-state and out-of-state are totally different.
You can’t really calculate it like this. For one, like @northwesty said, the acceptances for in-state vs. out-of-state are different. Additionally, it depends on which college you are applying to. Engineering obviously has a much lower percentage than LSA.
Although I’m sure you already know this, I think you shouldn’t worry too much about the numbers, rather, focus on demonstrating your interest through the use of supplementary materials/phone calls/letters etc.
Thanks friends for your wise info.
Kid got accepted yesterday. LSA. First was in portal, email came later.
Best.