Or is it that they are trying to reverse engineer a ranking that approximates popular perception?
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That’s part of it. I also think USNWR rankings have become well known enough that they can also have a strong influence on what popular perception is, particularly among those choosing to participate in the USNWR survey, creating a self-perpetuating system. This is more significant for rankings of smaller schools or specific departments within schools.
For example, I previously mentioned that Williams has been the number 1 ranked LAC for each of the past 18 years. The top 3 are almost always Williams, Amherst, and Swarthmore… in that order. Some of the “academics” who choose to fill out the USNWR 1 = marginal to 5 = distinguished peer survey are influenced by seeing them top the rankings each year, increasingly the likelyhood that they’ll mark Williams, Amherst, and Swarthmore as “distinguished.” This peer survey is the highest weighted component of the rankings.
The peer survey results are not free. When a CC poster listed them in 2013, the survey results were as follows. Bowdoin, Middlebury, Pomona, and others are unlikely to break in to the top 3 until they can overcome this large gap in their ranking on the “marginal” / “distinguished” peer survey. So I expect the top 3 to remain the same in future years, unless USNWR makes substantial methodology changes.
Williams – 4.7 out of 5
Amherst/Swarthmore – 4.6 out of 5
– Large Gap –
Bowdoin / Middlebury / Pomona / Carleton / Weselley – 4.3 out of 5
Various others – 4.2 out of 5