Uchicago ED I vs. ED II

Colleges & Universities University of Chicago
41

@River65 - UChicago doesn’t publish admit rates for ED1 or ED2. We know that last year the early round (ED1+EA) was about a 7% admit rate out of about 15k applicants. I’ve estimated that the ED1 acceptance rate might be as high as 12%. There’s just not a lot of room for “meaningfully higher” acceptance rates when you are dealing with a 7% overall rate with a large proportion of ED1’s. The 12% might be too high for all I know. For the “regular round” ie ED2 and RD, a lot just depends on the strength of the new ED2 apps, combined with the complicating factor that there will be some deferred EA’s and ED1’s who are invited to switch to ED2 and at least a few of those will probably get in.

EA and RD are generally thought to be pretty low admit rates (4%'ish or lower). But no one has any good data on this or any recent data at all.

42

@JBStillFlying - if last year 15k students applied EA÷ED1, is it safe to say a minority of those 15k applied ED1?

Moreover, assuming chicago is no more or no less popular than other schools offering ED1, is it safe to say around 4500 of tbose 15k apps were ED1? I get the 4500 number by looking at v popular schools that have ED - like Brown and Columbia. Brown received 4562 ed1 apps last year, and Columbia around the same. So it’s safe (maybe even optimistic) to say chicago received a similar amount.

Then, let’s say chicago is somewhat conservative w how it uses ED1. So it accepts 45% of the class ed1, as opposed to 50%+ at peers. Accepting 770 of those 4500 ed1 apps leads to a 18% accept rate. This is conservative, and could be higher, as it assumes Chicago is quite popular for ed1, and uses ed1 v conservatively. I’m actually doubtful chicago reveives as many ED apps as brown and colimbia. My guess would be ED1 to chicago would be in the 3500-4000 range (closer to johns hopkins ed).

Anyway, JB, we are both speculating, so how is it you get a 12% rate, and I’m at close to 20% for ed1 as my most optimistic figure?

43

During a UofC Info Session yesterday the AO said that they get 4-5k applications for ED1 and 10-15k for EA. He said that the ED1 apps tend to be, on average, a better fit than the EA and RD apps and that’s why they have a higher admit rate. He didn’t give stats for ED2.

44

@HMom16 - that fits perfectly with my analysis above. If chicago gets, say 4500 ED1 apps, and even just accepts 40% of the class ED1 (a rate far lower than its ivy plus peers) that’s still an ED1 accept rate of around 15-16%.

Like other ivy plus schools, then, ED1 boasts a far higher accept rate than the other rounds. Yes, it could be that the ed pool has good fit candidates, but, like other ed schools, chicago probably values those who have already signaled their intent so strongly.

Yield matters.

45

^ Information!!! Thank you @HMom16.

@Cue7 - I had been assuming 6K ED1 apps for last year given the +2,000 bump in early applications. Over time we’ve seen restricted early applications trend up at all the top elites, so I figured 6K wasn’t so out of the ball-park. However, firm numbers are always better so here goes:

  1. Assuming the original 2:1 ratio in favor of ED1 vs EA, that means last year’s ED1 rate would have been 14% and EA 3.5%. Cue’s higher ED1 estimates might be correct in an early pool of around 12-13k. Last year’s early pool was 15k and overall app. numbers this year matched last year’s, with a 20% increase in early TO applications. That tells me the early pool was likely 15k-strong again or maybe even higher. That’s going to push down the admit rate.

  2. Here is where it gets interesting. They may have skipped commenting about ED2 because the pool varies by size each year. ED2 is a weird admission round. My son’s year they actually opened it up to deferred ED1’s, thus allowing someone two rounds of Early! That means either the pool size wasn’t large enough for their taste on its own, or there were superlative candidates from the early round worth re-consideration on a prioritized basis (deferreds to RD round has a miniscule dmit rate). Of course we’ll never know. Anecdotally, there seem to be way more RD’s on campus than ED2’s so my best guess is that they flip the ratio in the regular round: 2:1 in favor of RD. That would result in a 50/50 split between admitting binding and non-binding applicants, with 350 or 400 admitted ED2. How many apply? Not sure. The deferreds haven’t had much luck lately so, setting them aside for the moment, we know that 19,600 applied as new ED2/RD for class of '23. How many were ED2s? Can’t be more than 4,000 and my best guess is that they get at least 2,000 so that means the admit rate can be something between 9% and 18%. RD would be something like 4% (from new apps only - smaller once you add deferreds to the denominator but as so few get in I tend to leave them out of the calculus).

  3. Important: Admit rates don’t equate to personal chances. For instance, this year (Class of '24) the legacy/NMF kid of a traditional “UChicago Type” was a deferred EA who switched to ED2 at the advice of his GC who assured him that this would very likely get him in. He was waitlisted. Would he have gotten in ED1? Not clear. I tend to think that if the adcom thinks you are a “best fit” candidate, then whether you applied ED1 or ED2 isn’t relevant. After all, the same ED agreement is signed either way. If that’s the case, then it may not matter which round you apply in; weaker applicants have a 0% in either and stronger candidates have a better-than-paper-odds chance. ED1 has a higher number of admits than ED2 simply because there tend to be a greater number of better-fit candidates in ED1. It doesn’t mean a strong candidate in ED2 won’t be admitted. In fact, if the ED2 pool is, indeed, smaller, then it’s easier for a strong candidate to stand out. Something to keep in mind.

  4. I’d still use the two rounds for what they are intended for. If UC is a strong first choice, apply ED1. If it’s a strong 2nd choice, apply ED2.

46

@JBStillFlying - why do you assume a 2:1 ratio in favor of ED1 vs. EA? Where is that coming from?

Even using conservative, optimistic assumptions for Chicago, I’m not sure how the ED1 accept rate could be lower than 15%. They get around 4500 ED1 apps, and accept, say, around 700 of them (to fill around 40% of the class ED1). That’s a 15.5% accept rate.

Note, those numbers are conservative. If Chicago is like it’s other ivy plus peers, it might even accept 800-850 ED1 (to fill about 50% of the class ED1) - which drives the accept rate up to almost 20%.

ED1 tends to be where the elite schools get a huge chunk of their talent. ED1 also “signals” more than ED2 - it says you’re our number 1, not 1A.

47
  • When UChicago introduced ED, they admitted a 2:1 class in the early round. So that one comes from, I believe, Nondorf himself. See the early February 2017 CC thread started, I believe, by BronxBorn that summarizes the NY admit day.
  • Last year's admit pool bumped by 2k. They got more than 4,500 ED1 apps.
  • From those in contact with admissions, UChicago does not distinguish between "1" and "1A" in their admissions calculation. They tend to admit so many for ED1 and so many others for ED2. Both rounds result in admissions. It's quite possible that the ED2's have fewer "good fits." (I say this as a parent of two ED2 admits). That, of course, can benefit a right-fit candidate.

Remember, the admit rate is a RESULT, not a DRIVER, of the admissions process.

48

^ Edit the previous post to add last year’s stats (Class of '23)

15,000 early apps (ED1/EA); source is Admissions leak to WaPo. 34,648 Total; source is UC website. 19,648 regular apps (ED2/RD); source is doing the Math.

Early admit rate 7% overall ====> 1,050 admits; source is Admit event. A 2:1 ratio means 700 ED1’s and 350 EA’s. Source for 2:1 ratio is also admit event.

Overall admit rate 6.2% ====> 2,137 admits; source is UC website. That means 1,087 were admitted in the regular round (ED2 and RD). Very few appear to be deferreds, though that can change from year to year. Effective admit rate of the regular round (ED2 and RD) is 5.5% or lower depending on number of deferreds added to the denominator.

Yield is 81% ====> 1,726 matriculants; source is UC website.

49

^^ Using the above to do some guesstimate work:

60% of class is ED; source is admissions office via third party.
====> approximately half of the ADMITTED class is admitted ED.
====> 350 ED2 and 737 RD’s were admitted.

Adding everything up:
Early = 700 ED1 + 350 EA = 1,050.
Regular = 350 ED2 + 737 RD = 1,087
Sum = 2,137 Admitted.

Yield = 100% for ED1+ED2 (simplifying assumption).
====> 1,050 matriculate as binding admits and 676 matriculate as EA/RD admits.

Non-binding yield = 676/(350+737) = 62%

Percentage of the class that is ED = (700+350)/1,726 = 60.8%. If a few ED’s drop out due to financial hardship etc. then that percentage will come down a bit, and the non-binding yield increases.

That has basically been my thinking. Comments?

50

@JBStillFlying for Class of 2023, as we know they had 4-5K ED1 apps, and accept around 700, doesn’t that mean a 15-16% accept rate ED1?

Also, for Class of 24, we know early apps total went up by 2K, but how many of those were ED1 apps?

Isn’t it also possible that the number of ED1 accepts went up, too? Say, for 19-20, 4800 applied ED1, and Chicago accepted 750 of them. That’s still a 16% ED1 accept rate.

Again, per all the numbers we know, I’m not sure how the ED1 rate would be much below 15%. I’m thinking the ED1 rate is anywhere from 15-20%.

At least in terms of optics, the ED1 accept rate is a lot higher than any of the other rates. Again, this falls in line with any other school that offers ED1. A big chunk of the talent comes in ED1.

51

^ 700 / 5000 = 14%, as I mentioned upthread.

We actually do NOT know the number of early apps - at least I don’t know it. We don’t know the early accept rate either unless I’ve missed a key communication. What we DO know is that the number of overall applications remained SALY and that early TO apps increased 20%. And the overall admit rate is unchanged from last year. 6.2%. That might suggest (not confirm) not much change in overall figures from last year.

Target ED of 60% can mean a lot of things and there’s bound to be error on either side of that estime. The most likely the thing that causes ED1 or ED2 accept numbers to go up or down would be strength of the applicant pool.

I don’t go off projections of “optics” or suspected admit rates - I go off the stuff I read and hear that is sourced in the admissions office and work through to the estimate admit rate from that information.

There is no question that the ED rate is higher than non-binding. OP’s question was whether ED1 had a more favorable admit rate than ED2. That question is still unanswered, IMO.

I actually believe they admit as many RD as they do ED1, but good minds can differ on that one.

52

So @JBStillFlying - you get to an ED1 accept rate of 14% by taking the number of ED1 accepts (700) and the absolute highest possible number of ED apps (5000)?

When an AO says they got between 4000-5000 ED1 apps, is there something you think should compel us to use the very highest end of that range?

Also, while you may not (good for you!), you gotta figure the optics of a higher ED1 accept rate entice a lot of applicants to apply ED1 at a range of schools…

53

^ That’s correct. Last year ED1 applications jumped due to the anecdotal word that the admit rate was so high and ED1 would be an “easier” admission, especially with TO. Lots of ED1 TO applications. Mind you, early TO apps were up this year so who knows how those numbers look . . .

Do a sanity check, @Cue7. What makes more sense to you: 5,000 ED1 applications, or 11,000 EA applications? :wink: TBH, I think 5,000 ED1’s is a tad low but will continue to go off actual information from Admissions rather than completely make something up.

54

^ BTW, 4,000 ED1 apps in fall of 2016 meant that the admit rate was 20%. So we at last have nailed down the initial ED1 admit rate for Class of '21. I recall some thinking it was as high as in the 30’s! I think my own estimates were around 16%. EDIT to add: I predicted 5,000 ED1 apps for class of '21, and 6,000 for Class of '23, so I’m high by about 1,000 apps.

55

@JBStillFlying - so when an AO says they got between 4-5k ed1 apps, you think they are shortselling? I would think they are getting somewhere in between 4 and 5k.

Also, 11,000 EA makes more sense than getting lots more than 5k ED1 apps, right? There’s no cost to unrestricted ea - lots can apply, with no possible commitment.

If chicago got 4500 ed1 apps, that’s equal to brown and columbia - a very good number.

As Chicago’s overall apps are in range w its ivy plus peers, why do you think it’s ED1 apps would be so much higher? Getting more than 5k to commit to chicago ed1 - a number higher than all but its larger peers (like upenn and cornell) would be absurdly high for ed, right? Especially bc, as you would assert, chicago is a very specific type of choice for an applicant?

Or am I missing something here, and should we expect Chicago to have the highest number of ed1 apps per capita for its peer group?

56

@Cue7 and @JBStillFlying , it is with awe and a slack jaw that I follow (sort of) the flying tennis ball. These are impressive prodigies of analysis! I’m getting just enough to savor the sport of it all. It is not unlike watching grandmasters at chess. I sometimes wonder if the College’s admission scheme wasn’t designed simply to evoke such feats of analysis and memory. Yet the takeaway for applicants not totally in to all the details of the analysis remains pretty simple (famous last words):

ED1 is for those with Chicago as first choice;
ED2 is for those who failed in an early round at another school or schools but for whom Chicago is second choice;
RD is for everyone for whom Chicago is only one of several choices, either with a hope and a prayer that any one of them will come through or, if more than one comes through, with the luxury of a final choice among riches;
EA would seem to be a sort of free-throw someone might take who likes Chicago well enough to take an early shot at snagging an offer to put in hip pocket but also wants to play a larger field - a sort of RD application before RD itself.

Incidentally, the Admissions people must read into each admission category these respective implications and each must surely have its own effect, all other things being equal. Thus, if an attractive applicant makes a persuasive case that the culture of the U of C is unique and wonderful and perfectly suited for him or her and if that applicant also applies ED1 - well, the AO knows this is the straight goods and not just blarney being spread in every “Why U of —“ essay the applicant writes.

57
  • Yes - I'd expect UC to have the highest number of ED1 apps of its peer group, for a couple of reasons: 1) the numbers of ED1's admitted was always higher and 2) UChicago's early pool volume was always higher - significantly so. Brown and Columbia - two peers with well-known ED programs - were looking at about 3k-3.5k applications prior to 2021. (That admission cycle Columbia hit 4.1k; Brown hit 3.2k). Both schools also admitted smaller percentages of the overall class as ED. Brown currently is up to 50% ED; but 50% ED is where UChicago actually STARTED. It's been much more aggressive about admitting ED than the other schools. You don't think that impacts ED application numbers in subsequent years?

In its first year of ED, UChicago - at worst - hit Columbia’s max. So that’s a pretty decent showing of ED1’s. Total number of early applications that fall was 13,000: 1,000 applications higher than the prior year, despite overall application volume dropping by 10%. UC had been enjoying huge early application numbers for years by that point, with a strong and enthusiastic component who placed the College high on the list (if not a hands-down #1). A good number of those applied ED1 when the option was made available. And the early numbers in toto have only increased since then. So yeah, 5,000 actually seems safe to me.

This year, we know so far that while every other peer save Princeton declined in application numbers, UChicago held steady. So it’s a bit of a trend-bucker - not really like all those other schools.

58

I would add to #56 - as explanation of why Chicago might snare more ED’s than peers like Columbia or Brown - the supposition that there are a lot of kids of a certain stripe who are likely to see Chicago as a school specially designed with them in mind. Being an unusual flavor - whether only slightly so or definitely so, as we are constantly debating here - means that those who long for that flavor don’t really have alternatives to their heart’s desire.

59

@marlowe1 and @JBStillFlying - you raise interesting points, but the data we have doesn’t seem to support it. Of most import, the AO company line seems to be between 4-5k ED apps. I doubt they’d be short-selling for any discernible reason here.

Also, while JB balks at EA apps being much over 11k, keep in mind just 4 years ago, Chicago was pulling 12k EA apps: https://www.chicagomaroon.com/2016/05/31/university-admits-record-low-7-9-percent-to-class-of-2020/

Finally, while the assertion that Chicago is a singular (more niche) flavor is interesting, here, I think sheer popularity outweighs individuality. The glitz and glamour of Brown and Columbia (while maybe not singular - places like Wesleyan and NYU often serve as backups to these schools) prove more alluring than a place that is singular, but grittier (like Chicago).

Remember, we’re talking ED, not EA. Sure, as seen in 2016, lots of students are willing to make non-binding commitments to Chicago. But, the “niche/grind” schools, like, say, Hopkins, tend to attract fewer apps than the more glamorous options for ED. (Hopkins gets around 3-4k early apps.) I think Hopkins is a good comparator here.

I think, per all the discussion here, generally more particular students are ready to commit to Chicago, and they certainly don’t exist in higher quantities than the types found at Brown or Columbia.

After all, if you like Chicago but are reluctant to commit completely to such a particular place, why not just apply EA?

That’s why, along with what the AO says, I’d be very surprised if ED apps were north of 5K. (Heck even Harvard and Yale only get 6k ED apps, and they have two of the biggest pulls, probably domestically and internationally.)

60

(Oh, and the lack of an engineering school probably deflates apps globally to Chicago. Just think of what nondorf could do if we had an abet approved engineering school! We’d hit 40k apps and a 5% overall accept rate, easy.)