Uchicago ED I vs. ED II

Colleges & Universities University of Chicago
61

^ Cue, UChicago has had 10,000+ early apps since Fall of 2012. That’s not news. UC is well known for having the largest number of early apps. among its peers. The question is how many would become ED1 apps once they introduced that admission option. We know that it was at minimum about 4k for Class of '21 (fall 2016). The school has only gotten more popular since then (with lots of cc and reddit posts about chances in ED). Since the admissions peeps are saying 4-5k, that’s the number to use because its presumably accurate data. But if the early application numbers are increasing, that ED1 will be closer to 5k than 4k. That’s my bet. But we are quibbling anyway if we are off from one another by only 500 applicants :wink:

FYI Yale’s apps were a bit north of 35k this year; UChicago’s a bit south. So it’s not out of the ballpark to speculate that UChicago would see as many as 6k ED1 applications. However, the binding aspect probably does taper it relative to Yale’s. I’d put Yale’s numbers as an upper limit, and Brown/Columbia at the lower end, since UChicago easily achieved that right out the gate. So somewhere between current app volume range of 4.5-6k makes total sense, with the caveat that Covid might change things for everyone this admission cycle. Edit to add: agree with Marlowe that UChicago’s distinct “flavor” gives it a bit of a bump. Then it just becomes a matter of how many were admitted. 700 ED1’s might be high, of course.

62

@JBStillFlying

I guess I’m still unclear how you’re getting 4.5k-6k for ED1 apps. The Chicago AO said 4-5k, and Yale - which is a pretty big global name - gets 6k EA (not ED) apps. (Sorry for my typo above where I said ED instead of EA.)

Yes, Yale is single-choice EA, but I think there’s a fairly big difference between EA and ED - the binding commitment of ED still gives many applicants pause.

On the ED front, UPenn and Cornell lead the pack with around 6k ED apps - but they also have big, big class sizes. Most (more generically popular, I might add) ED schools like Brown, Columbia, and Northwestern pull 4-5k ED apps.

For Chicago to get close to 6K ED apps would really be unusual. It would mean the Chicago AO is shortselling, and Chicago has by far the most ED apps per capita.

This, again is curious because based on sheer volume of applications, Chicago is sort of middle-of-the-pack. They got around 34k apps, which is pretty middle of the road for the peer group. Not sure why ED1 would be different.

Do we know how much Chicago uses ED1 nowadays? The first year, it yielded 700 admits, but has this number gone up or down? Is Chicago’s class more filled with ED1 applicants these days?

Also, what’s up with schools providing such lackluster admissions data? I can’t find anything from, say, Vanderbilt about their ED2 accept rate, Northwestern doesn’t even provide their ED1 accept rate… You have to really dig to find this stuff.

Again, this sure ain’t transparent for applicants…

63

Same with Cornell. It has just joined Stanford and UChicago in not publishing admissions data in the spring. NU must have stopped this year because last year (Class of '24) it was around 25% ED admit rate and they were expecting to fill the class over 50% with ED’s.

Maybe schools just want students not to apply early for the “bump” but because they see themselves as good fits and truly are committed to attending :smile:

Both UChicago and Yale are kind of in the middle of the pack in terms of total apps and selectivity among the peers. Brown Columbia and NU don’t have a history of aggressively filling the class with ED. UChicago has been distinctive this way. UChicago’s total application volume has underperformed for years compared to its early app. volume.

However, as @Cue7 points out, we actually do NOT know how much UC currently uses ED1 or ED2. It’s very possible that the increase in yields the past couple of years had more to do with fit and less to do specifically with ED. That means depending more on EA admissions than ED1. Hypothetically, that could be the case. However, as the admissions person said, the ED1 apps are “a better fit” than EA or RD. I’m guessing there is still a bump for applying ED, all else equal, that they still admit a good number of ED1’s and that they probably do get “higher than normal” ED1 application numbers although 5k sounds more safe than 6k.

Best guess is that the AO isn’t really “shortselling” as much as being vague. For instance, how can UChicago get as many as 15,000 EA apps? That would mean having something like 19-20k early apps total for Class of '24. Really? :wink:

64

May I have a definition, please? I never attended business school. What is “short-selling”? I know “selling yourself short” and “coming up short” (lot of knowledge of that one) and I sorta know “shorting the market”. And I once knew a little guy called “Shorty” (but I also knew a very tall guy called “Shorty”). Which of these shorts is it in this context?

65

^ Cue means under-stating reality. And I don’t think the AO’s do that. Put huge ranges around reality so that you get no true info is more their style.

66

Yes to @JBStillFlying - simply under-stating reality. And, I also agree, it’s more likely they put huge ranges around the numbers, rather than undersell how many actually apply (which could lead to blowback).

Admissions can be so much smoke and mirrors sometimes. It’s annoying.

67

If Cue is spot on that 4-4.5K ED1 applicants makes sense for UChicago, then the ED1 admit rate at UChicago is pretty good! 15-17.5%. But now I’m wondering about ED2. Because if there are only 4-4.5K applying in ED1, how many are applying (new) in ED2? There are, of course, deferreds from the ED1/EA round but it’s not clear that this group does well in ED2 anymore. It’s possible that ED2 gets 4,000 applicants total, but a lot of that has to be deferreds who switched. Especially given the huge early numbers and large numbers of deferreds that result.

The ED2/RD had 19,600 new applicants for Class of '23. A good number simply have to be RD. If 2,000 are ED2, that’s a 17.5% admit rate, assuming 350 ED2 admits. If the number of admits is higher, or the number of (new) ED2 applicants is lower, that admit rate increases, making it the superior round for ED (from an admit rate standpoint).

68

I bet that a lot more than 2,000 applied ED2, but again I can’t back that up with any hard evidence.

69

But @JBStillFlying - of the 350 ED2 admits, some admits were those deferred ea and ed1, right? Even if only 100 of all those deferred ea and ed2 were admitted ed2 (a conservative #, since there is a lot of talent in the ea and ed1 pools), that means 250 “new” applicants were accepted ED2. 250/2000 is a 12.5% accept rate for the brand new ed2s - not as high as the ED1 rate.

By far, from an optics standpoint, ED1 probably has the highest accept rate (I’d day anywhere from 15-20%, based on how many ed1s they admit), then ED2 (probably in the 10-15% range for “new” ed2 applicants bc this group is quite strong - lots of HYPS level folks who didn’t make the cut), and then ea and rd bring up the rear with like a 4-6% accept rate.

And an overall blended rate of around 6% (which we know). Conveniently, a number w/in a hair’s breadth of stanford and harvard, and right around yale and columbia. Again - right around where our board and president want us to be, I imagine.

Those are my guesses!

70

^ No way of proving this but anecdotally it seemed there were a lot more accepted deferrals in ED2 for Classes of '21 and '22 than for Class of '23. If ED2 has caught on and they are seeing strong applications as a result, then it won’t matter how many deferreds switch to ED2 because only a handful will be admitted. I continue to think it might be an opportunity for a particularly strong candidate to stand out; however, ultimately the candidate should use the admissions options the way they were intended rather than try to game the system (along with everyone else :wink: ).

I’d be shocked at an ED1 accept rate of 20% when the overall early rate is only 7%. It’s hard to get from 7% to 20% unless a very small pool of ED’s were applying.

Furthermore, my hunch is that it’s incorrect to be tabulating your admit rate based on ED1 vs. EA. UC looks to admit a certain number each fall - perhaps specifying how many from each pool but perhaps not. EA and ED1 come out at the same time on the same day; they are both part of the same decision round. Think of the ED as a way to signal that this is your top choice; that signal, all else equal, gives you a bump in that round.

I don’t see a 6% rate in the least for EA or RD. 3-4% for both. They are shooting for yield w/in capacity and the overall admit rate will fall out of that. That blended rate has been a little over 6% for a couple cycles now. It’s a good rate to be at when everyone else is seeing their own admit rates creep up a bit.

UC couldn’t approach H or S application numbers w/o an additional 6k or more. I don’t see that happening, especially with application numbers at the top actually starting to fall. And then, this autumn - who knows what will happen. 35k tops for awhile is my prediction. The school isn’t a perfect substitute for the others due to the very distinct academic reputation, although I suppose I can be convinced otherwise if I knew they receive more than 2k ED2 apps

71

I agree. Need blind can not be true need-blind. schools do consider Financial have a profile as their consideration. Any school cannot have 100% FA kids as their class. They may keep 60% FA Student body but It will have to be different this year decreasing amounts are given to FA.
Someone has to take care of the tab and especially in financial situations like now

72

If UChicago is your first choice (and if your stats and reasons to attend suggest a good “fit”) then apply EDI. I would not suggest applying to Chicago EA unless you are a URM.