UCLA's acceptance rate this year is 14.1%

But MOST students have < 3.8 GPA. You erroneously are assuming they are applying to UCLA and not Cal because they think they have a better chance of getting in. Did you talk to those applicants?

Are there other reasons to apply to a school? Yes. Are you wanting to consider those reasons? Nope.

Sorry, I used to teach LSAT test prep, and your argument is a classic red herring on the logic questions…