We’ve been through this before with UF. This—“ The percentage of out-of-state students at UF is 16%, which aligns with the rate of out-of-state applications received (vs. in-state)”—tells us nothing about the relative caliber of the in-state vs OOS applicant pools. Additionally, their CDS shows smaller OOS numbers than 16%.
Anecdotes and common sense dictate that there is a much higher bar for an OOS applicant from a high-stats state than there is from an under-represented rural or poor county in FL, and so you can’t assume the test-score distribution is the same. I think an unhooked applicant with a 30 is a true longshot; I’ve heard of too many high GPA/extras/33+ NE kids who were rejected.
Let’s hope I’m wrong.