URM Chances

<p>Please tell me my chances. I'm a friend of Runner8491 applying to Harvard EA.
GPA out of a 100. My rank is 32/259
9th:93.6
10th:94.2
11th:97.8
12th:95.7
I'm taking the most rigorous courseload that is offered to me.</p>

<p>Senior Year Courses
AP Calculus
AP US History
AP English
Honors Theology IV
Honors French IV
Honors Physics</p>

<p>2 college courses(Intro Philosophy and Intermeditate Spanish. I have taken 3 college coures so far.</p>

<p>SATs
SAT:1320
USHis: 750
Writing:650
Chemistry: 700
Math IIC:600</p>

<p>ECs
Mock Trial/Debate-10 11 12
African American Club(President)- 10 11 12
Model UN(Ambassodor from Great Britain) - 10 11 12
Vice President of senior class-12
Peer Adviser to Freshman-12
Newspaper(Editor in Chief)-11 12
Volunteer at local hosptial- 100hrs
FBLA- 10 11 12
Track and Field (Letterman)- 9 10 11 12
National Honor Society- 11 12
Tutor at local Literacy School
Community Service Corps- 10 11 12 </p>

<p>I want to major in Political Science. I am an African-American that lives in a disadvantaged area. I also have several Academic Awards from school.
My HOOK: a 2wk. study abroad program in France. I planning on retaking my SATs</p>

<p>My own completely unscientific guess, assuming you interview well and have great letters: 40% likelihood of being admitted.</p>

<p>are you implying that out of top10% + lower than 25th percentile test scores + URM = 40% chance?</p>

<p>I am saying that.</p>

<p>how do ppl do competitive ranks. i am just curious. like what are the factors</p>

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<p>It may be even more than a 40% chance for Runner, a URM (black) in admissions to Harvard. If he is recruited, in many instances, his stats, such as SAT scores and class rank, become meaningless in the decision to admit, based solely on the racial preference for blacks.</p>

<p>Runner's SAT I score is 1320, with 3 SAT IIs of 750, 650 and 700 are only one standard deviation below the mean scores of Harvard's freshman class (about 200 points below Harvard's mean score of 1500 on the SAT I). His ECs are commendable, but not earth shattering. I don't know how competitive his running or his involvement in track is. If this is at a highly competitive level and he is nationally ranked, he may also be a recruited athlete, receiving the athletic preference as well as the race preference for blacks in admissions to Harvard. The athletic preference is huge tip, and the race preference for blacks is even a bigger tip for admissions. Receiving both preferences will give Runner a HUGE, HUGE advantage over the rest of the applicant pool admitted to Harvard at a rate of only 10%. Stats and other criteria become MEANINGLESS for many recruited URMs and athletes.</p>

<p>You have to look at the actual data to comment on this. A score of 300 points below the mean SAT I score of an Ivy or a 1200 SAT I score, does not preclude an applicant from admission, especially if he/she is a URM (black, latino). Even a score of 500 points below the mean SAT I score of an Ivy or an elite college does not preclude this applicant from admission. It does not preclude an applicant from admission to Harvard with a SAT I score mean of 1500 today. It is well known that Harvard also recruited and admitted white ice hockey players for its Ivy championship team with SAT I scores of 1000 and below. These white players obviously were given preferential treatment in admission, making their admission stats (test scores in SAT I and IIs, and GPAs) almost meaningless, when the athletic preference was given to them, tipping the decision to admit. Some of these students, who are academically deficient, may even fail to graduate, and if they do graduate, they graduate from the bottom of the class taking the least rigorous courses of study.</p>

<p>This situation also occurs with some recruited URMs (blacks and latinos) who are also admited with low SAT I scores, some with as much as 2 1/2 standard deviations below the mean, or 500 points below the mean SAT I of 1500 of the entering class of Harvard College or any other Ivy or elite college.</p>

<p>Please check the SAT I score distribution of the Verbal and Math scores of the recently admitted class at Brown U., an illustrious Ivy school. Click on:</p>

<p><a href="http://www.brown.edu/Administration/Admission/profile.html%5B/url%5D"&gt;http://www.brown.edu/Administration/Admission/profile.html&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p>

<p>Please look at the SAT I data presented on this site for the recently admitted class. Note the Verbal SAT I scores distribution. You will see that Brown admitted 21 students with Verbal scores of 450 to 490. Brown even admitted 5 students with less than a 450 Verbal score. Note the SAT I Math scores. You will see that Brown admitted 8 students with Math scores between 450 to 490.</p>

<p>Most of these students are from the preferred groups in admissions, mainly lower scoring URMs or athletes, or both URMs and athletes, given preferential treatment in admissions, making their test scores almost meaningless in their admissions, because they are 2 1/2 standard deviations below the mean SAT I Math and the mean SAT I Verbal scores at Brown.</p>

<p>As far as I know, Brown is the only Ivy school which releases this kind of SAT I data of its admitted class. It would be more interesting if this data were disaggregated according to racial and ethnic groups, as well as athletes, all given perferred status in admissions with lowered stats. I am sure each Ivy has done this behind closed doors, but they will never release this data, because it would be damning and show how grossly unfair the admissions process really is, making academic stats virtually MEANINGLESS for groups given preferential treatment in admissions, such as URMs and athletes. The racial perferences for URMs tip the scales the most in admission, more than any other preference, including the athletic, legacy and geographical preferences used in admissions in the elite colleges.</p>

<p>PShedrishMD - why the 40%?</p>

<p>As it's totally unscientific (a guess), the explanation would seem meaningless. Of course, NSM's approach to this kind of question makes more sense: apply, give it your best, be prepared with other apps., etc.</p>