Here is a model to estimate the question of admission rates for NMF students, for fun.
Data:
Using 2022 matriculated #s from NMSC, there were 198 Presidential + NMF (merit scholars funded by USC) and an additional 64 students who were NMF scholars and enrolled at USC who did not have USC merit (corporate scholarships vs trustee?)
From USC data, there were 107 Trustee and 405 Presidential awardees who enrolled in 2022 and an overall yield of 41.2%
Assumptions:
If 1/4 of all 15K NMF applied to USC, assume the denominator for applicants for this scenario is 3,750 and 2/3 apply EA (2,500).
Using reported estimates of # of offers of merit from the thread above, assume 2/3 of the ~300 Trustee offers were NMF (200 offers were to NMF EA for Trustee only)
Since 198/405 presidential scholarship matriculates are NMF, estimate that 1/2 of the presidential scholars enrolled from EA are NMSF. Using a yield here of 41%, that gives ~241 offers (99/.41) in EA.
Similarly, for the RD round, this assumption would leave 241 offers to NMF who received the Presidential merit offer.
The tricky part is what to do about the 64 who matriculated who did not receive the Presidential college sponsored scholarship. Could some of these be Trustee awardees who are not counted as “merit scholars” sponsored by the institution or are there some additional corporate sponsored awardees that should be factored in? Let’s assume all these are Trustee, since 2/3 of 100 is close to 64 anyway.
Results:
200 (trustee offers to NMF) + 241 (presidential to NMF) = 441 offers/2,500 NMF in EA = acceptance rate of 17.6%.
That leaves 2,059 deferred EA NMF for the RD pool + another 1,250 who apply RD for a denominator of 3,309 NMF in the RD round.
If an additional 241 offers are made to RD students, the acceptance rate for that pool becomes 7.2% (241/3,309). Overall being NMF would have an acceptance rate of 18%.
Lots of assumptions here of course, but a big driver of the acceptance rate remains the # of NMF scholars who apply.