Using Binomials to Predict Acceptances

Applying to College
1

<p>haha the idea just struck me and i thought it was pretty interesting. </p>

<p>If any arbitrary applicant were to apply to 10 big schools, each of which averaging a 10% acceptance rate(which is, in actuality, underestimated), then the probability that he/she get into at least one of those schools can be calculated using binomial, assuming that scores/GPA/EC’s of the given applicant are equal in merit to those of the average applicant, in which case, the probability of admission is equal to the acceptance rate. </p>

<p>Using any graphing calculator:
1 - binomcdf(10, 0.1, 0) = 0.65132156 ~ 65.13%
binomcdf(10,0.1,0) gives the probability that the applicant get into none of the schools, so 1 minus that will give us the probability that the applicant gets into at least one. </p>

<p>AT LEAST 1 SCHOOL: 65.13%
AT LEAST 2 SCHOOLS: 26.39%
AT LEAST 3 SCHOOLS: 7.02%</p>

<p>And so on and so forth…
Comment below on the accuracy of this data in real college admissions…</p>

2

<p>Very misinformed…</p>

<p>A million kids with 1.0 GPAs apply to those 10 colleges. None of them will be accepted.</p>

3

<p>haha I figured that…that’s that the figures are based on the assumption that the given applicant is equal in merit to the average applicant at those schools</p>

4

<p>*that’s why I mentioned that</p>

5

<p>bump10char</p>

6

<p>bump10char</p>

7

<p>Even then, the “average” student doesn’t get into to a college unless its acceptance rate is 50% or above.</p>

<p>I don’t think there is a point in trying to predict acceptances because it’s not predictable. The admissions people have to read through your application along with essays, interviews and recommendations, then make a decision on if they feel you should be accepted. Just one line in an essay could get you rejected from every top college.</p>

8

<p>OP, this idea comes up on a regular basis, and gets debunked just as often. Here’s what a quick google search on “calculating probability of getting into at least one reach school site:collegeconfidential.com” yields, for starters:</p>

<p><a href=“http://talk.collegeconfidential.com/college-admissions/349285-conceptual-issue-admissions-probability.html[/url]”>http://talk.collegeconfidential.com/college-admissions/349285-conceptual-issue-admissions-probability.html&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

<p><a href=“http://talk.collegeconfidential.com/college-search-selection/944407-more-reaches-better.html[/url]”>http://talk.collegeconfidential.com/college-search-selection/944407-more-reaches-better.html&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

<p><a href=“http://talk.collegeconfidential.com/parents-forum/861845-probability-chance-up-if-applying-more-ivies-schools.html[/url]”>http://talk.collegeconfidential.com/parents-forum/861845-probability-chance-up-if-applying-more-ivies-schools.html&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

9

<p>Predicting admissions probability is impossible because most of the criteria are subjective and your chance of success depends not only on your application but on the other applications in the overall pool and in the specific pool presented to your readers.</p>

<p>And as said above, unless the school accepts more than half of the applicants, average scores aren’t going to get you ANYWHERE.</p>