<p>I hope I’m wrong about this – because my son’s waiting to hear on his application – but I see a record low offer rate to applicants this year.</p>
<p>I found a table on UVA’s website showing the applications, offers, and enrollments from 2000-08. The offer rate over that period is between 35% and 39%; the yield rate was above 51% until 2008, when it suddenly dropped to 48.3% (recession-related, I guess).</p>
<p>The Admission Office’s page shows 21,839 applications for 2009; 6775 offers; 3308 enrolled. The percentages for this (assuming that the usual average of 98.5% applies for “completed” applications) would show an offer rate of 31.5% and a yield rate of 48.8%.</p>
<p>Somewhere I’ve seen that UVA had 22,500 applications for 2010. Assuming that they’re aiming for 3300 enrollments and are expecting a yield rate of 49.0%, that means 6735 offers of admission, which is an offer rate of around 30.4% – more than 7% below the average for the past decade.</p>
<p>Like I said, I hope I’m wrong; but I expect there will be a record number of disappointed applicants this year.</p>
<p>Well, that’s more info, but it still doesn’t look good for this year’s applicants –</p>
<p>2005: IS acceptance 48.6%, OOS acceptance 30.4%, overall 38.9%
2006: IS 44.8%, OOS 32.4%, overall 37.4%
2007: IS 47.2%, OOS 27.3%, overall 35.2%
2008: IS 47.0%, OOS 29.7%, overall 36.7%
2009: IS 42.7%, OOS 22%, overall 28.9% (preliminary results from your blog; the final overall rate looks like it was 31.5%, with 6775 offers)
2010: With overall applications up from 2009, the overall offer rate’s got to go down.</p>
<p>My son’s in-state, so it looks as though he has twice as good a chance of an offer as an OOS student. But every applicant’s chances were better two years ago.</p>
<p>Well those stats are certainly not encouraging. </p>
<p>I wish they would put us out of our misery and just post the decisions already…my son is also waiting. He applied to 6 other schools of various sizes and all have let him know earlier than the stated notification date. I hope UVA does the same. I’ve been praying for his acceptance because otherwise he is going out of state (don’t know why he doesn’t want to go to VT or JMU!). </p>
<p>BMDMOM - I’m with you, and hope we find out soon. It’s my D’s top choice and only instate choice and we’re biting our nails of our crossed fingers! :)</p>
<p>Good luck to you both! And everyone else waiting!</p>