I don’t play the chances game, but how in the world would anyone be able to play along with a GPA (meaningless since methodologies are all over the map) and an ACT score?
This might help:
http://uvaapplication.blogspot.com/2015/03/i-dont-care-about-your-gpa.html
http://uvaapplication.blogspot.com/2014/10/what-does-holistic-admission-mean.html