OP here. Thanks everyone. I limit details for privacy. I’ll try to address everything in one post.
Budget=$20k and the abovementioned types of colleges, Meets Full Needs (MFN) and National Merit Finalist (NMF) colleges are the only ones that are both affordable, and would possibly be chosen in preference to NearbyStateU. I am convinced that there are no other colleges where ALL three things are true (1) D27 could get in, (2) we could afford it, and (3) we would possibly choose that college in preference to NearbyStateU. There may be hundreds of other colleges satisfying one or two of these but it takes all three to be true. There are no other colleges to consider. Also NearbyStateU is the unique safety, and unique in-state public under consideration.
So the question as intended to be taken in the OP is, is the presence of these 3 C’s and 2 D’s, in and of themselves, regardless of any other information or circumstances or later events, going to be automatically disqualifying for admission to MFN colleges, or reaching NMF status, or success in QB process?
I think a couple of posters have said that yes, D27 is eliminated from contention for all these, and I’m wondering if others agree.
I can say the grade 10 grades included: Core STEM AAAC, and Core Humanities DDCC.
And all the sub-A grades were a consequence of not submitting several major items such as reports, projects, major essays, and scoring zero for those items, so that the simple arithmetic of the missed points yielded the grades she got (and also due to this, she was not invited to return).
Obviously the circumstances, and whatever underlying causes, and any implications for the future, are things for our family to look into. But I ask the forum to just treat this thread as a kind of “chance me” based just on the given information, for the given colleges/scholarships.
One poster essentially said it looks like D27 got straights A’s at NonselectiveEasySchool, then switched to SelectiveHardSchool for grade 10 and bombed out, and then went back to NonselectiveEasySchool, and that’s totally fair, that’s basically what really happened, and we should expect colleges to see it that way too. On the other hand, the DE and regular coursework D27 did in grade 9 at NonselectiveEasySchool taught her the material to get AP exam scores Bio(5) Chem(4) and two other 5’s, so that’s evidence of rigor at the easier school, and even many selective schools will give college credit for these grade 9 results.
S24, who got almost straight A’s at SelectiveHardSchool (just 2 B’s in grade 12 and UWGPA 3.97) reports that his (selective, MFN) college is even much harder than SelectiveHardSchool (whereas many SelectiveHardSchool students have found regular colleges like NearbyStateU easier than that high school). Obviously we’d have to worry that if D27 were to actually get into one of these selective/MFN colleges, then she could have a repeat of her grade 10 disaster, and surely such colleges would also wonder the same things, which is why I find it hard to believe they would overlook such an obvious red flag.
If D27 were staying at SelectiveHardSchool until grade 12, she would have had many courses up to 2nd year college level to choose from. But back at NonselectiveEasySchool, the courses run out earlier which is why she has 100% Humanities in grade 11, and nothing left there in grade 12, so she might as well go on campus at NearbyStateU and start taking actual college courses.
I agree Associates is no big deal, but it’s just a by-product of what she’s doing anyway, so she might as well get it. All the DE courses give a bunch of in-state college credit, so that’s worthwhile, though that credit probably doesn’t travel OOS, hence the need to do some AP exams.
Her most likely path now is to try to do really well at NearbyStateU to set up for grad school. Transferring half way through undergrad (when high school grades can disappear) might work, but the problem is a bunch of DE credit that is only good in-state could be lost, so it’s better to finish undergrad at NearbyStateU.
It may be that D27 can end up with 8 semesters worth of A’s in each core subject, but nothing is “replaced” and all high school course grades (even if taken in middle school) stay on the transcript, so the bad grades cannot be overwritten and will be seen.
In 2026-7, D27 will take actual college courses on campus at NearbyStateU, but there is the question she should officially be a 12th grader, or 1st year college. There are many factors in considering these options, but one is that as a college student she’d get FinAid (making it essentially free), whereas as a high schooler we’d have to pay $1k+ per course.
These are a bunch of replies to many people’s comments.
But, again, what I really want to know is her prospects for admission to MFN colleges, or reaching NMF status, or success in QB process, given her bad grades.