War, Appeasement or a Third Way?

<p>With regard to North Korea (the substance of which is being carefully observed by Iran) the options appear to approach what happened in the 1930s with Germany. While Hitler may have been regarded as different, 1930s Germany was substantially better off than NKorea in 2006. NKorea has yet to attack anyone, but they have a huge standing army that probably takes virtually all the country’s annual wealth. Basically, they’ll let small children and widows starve to death so they can have a nuclear bomb and more howitzer rounds.</p>

<p>Appeasement has apparently not worked. They are more ready for war than we are, in some ways. Iran is looking for our response…they will go where we allow them to go. What is the Third Way, if there is one?</p>

<p>This is not a Republican or Democrat issue. Please don’t give me trash about Bush I or II or Clinton - it’s all ancient history now and matters not.</p>

<p>Thoughts?</p>

<p>Don’t worry nuclear war is not that bad</p>

<p>Exactly where has there been appeasement? For six years, the U.S. hasn’t even been willing to TALK to them. Has appeasement meant that the world didn’t let their children and widows starve? What steps precisely has the U.S. taken in the past six years that could be construed as “appeasement”?</p>

<p>I already posted my “Third Way” proposal. Romans 12:19-20.</p>

<p>(Of course, there aren’t many folks who believe in Christianity on this list. It might be worth a try on occasion.)</p>

<p>Take him out. Charge him with Crimes of Humanity. Have China, Japan, S. Korea fund construction of infrastructure and basic needs with all their USA IOU’s. How many more people will he/we let starve.</p>

<p>The engagement of recent administrations has approached appeasement. There has been virtually all carrot and no stick, I’d offer. With NKorea, the stick may not matter. They’re not rational.</p>

<p>Proxy war through China? That’d be interesting.</p>

<p>Appeasement? Bush has really dropped the ball with N Korea. Contrary to Iran, there could have been (and possibly still could be) dialogue that could prevent a nuclear arms race in Asia that could change the world.</p>

<p>The North Korean test
October 10, 2006
NORTH KOREA’S announcement of a nuclear test raises the specter of a nuclear arms race in Asia. Yesterday’s explosion may also set off a sequence of events that changes radically the balance of power in Asia and weakens current constraints against the spread of nuclear weapons around the world. The test also represents the most preventable, and one of the most damaging, failures of President Bush’s foreign policy. The administration has stubbornly rebuffed the North’s offers to cede its nuclear and missile programs in exchange for economic and security benefits in direct, two-party negotiations.</p>

<p>Unlike Iran, North Korea has repeatedly declared that it is willing to divest itself of its nuclear weapons capabilities for the right price. That price would include a guaranteed provision of energy – which might or might not include light-water reactors ill-suited for a weapons program – and also economic aid and security assurances that would end what the North calls the relations of ``enmity" between it and the United States.

Acting on the unrealistic assumption that he need not and should not stoop to bargaining with ``evil" regimes such as those in Pyongyang and Tehran, Bush has allowed hard-liners in his administration repeatedly to prevent or sabotage genuine negotiations with the North. For their part, North Korean representatives have made it plain that they will respond to rebuffs from hard-liners -- be they in Tokyo or Washington -- with missile launches, or with the extraction of plutonium from nuclear fuel rods, or now with an underground nuclear explosion.</p>

<p><a href=“http://www.boston.com/news/globe/editorial_opinion/editorials/articles/2006/10/10/the_north_korean_test/[/url]”>http://www.boston.com/news/globe/editorial_opinion/editorials/articles/2006/10/10/the_north_korean_test/&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

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<p>Yeah, mini, it might be worth a try. I’ve just never met anyone who actually tried it.</p>

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Flat out untrue!</p>

<p>For years, the U.S. has been trying to talk to NK non-stop along with several of NK’s neighbors. Lately, I have been hearing on TV Democrats saying the U.S. must start talking to NK directly without the other nations. They conveniently ignore that we already had direct talks with NK in 2003. The problem isn’t talking to NK. The problem is NK won’t return to the talks and won’t agree to give up its nuclear weapons program.</p>

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<p>Mini,</p>

<p>I believe you have–rather carelessly–confused Paul of Tarsus with Sun Tzu of 6th century China (or perhaps some modern gas-bag of choice), with Tarhunt doing even more to compound the error by repeating it. St Paul (whose kingdom one assumes is no part of this world) is not, it seems, talking about the elegant “art of war” amongst “kingdoms” but the art of love and life amongst discreet, though sinning, souls–thus your careless, if not perfectly disingenuous, misreading of a selfless and character-building good-neighbor policy.</p>

<p>Let’s work this through:
If some miscreant bombs one of our office-buildings with say, a passenger jet (full of passengers), it would be by some considered foolish to apply the sacred prescription to “turn the other cheek” and go on to ask them to bomb the office building opposite–the other side of the same face as it were–with another passenger jet full of innocents since they will likely already be predisposed to doing the deed without your sentimental encouragement that they do so (perhaps they read Sun Tzu, but I doubt they took the time to read St Paul between their excursions to strip-clubs)–as they of course did, without, I presume, your sympathetic encouragement in NYC a few years back. </p>

<p>It was all over the papers, you must have heard about it.</p>

<p>Oh yeah and, apropos your true villains
…what about Christians?</p>

<p>parent2noles:</p>

<p>There are few things that irritate me more than unfounded comparisons to pre-WWII Germany and Hitler. Germany was among the most militarily able and heavily industrialized countries in the world with (IIRC) the largest population in Europe. They then made SEVERAL aggressive land grabs backed by sabre-rattling threats. I can be sympathetic to a Europe that found a repeat of WWI unthinkable enough to acceed to his demands. But sympathy extends only so far. Allowing a country with a history like Prussia’s/Germany’s to slowly acquire land/population/industrial capacity was criminally stupid. </p>

<p>Using the loaded term “appeasement,” which is strongly linked to WWII and Hitler, for any other situation in the world today is absurd. There IS no country remotely like Germany in the world today in terms of relative population, capacity, military acumen, and aggressive stance. The Soviet Union was enough like Germany to qualify. China may someday fill that bill (though I sincerely hope not). But N. Korea, Iran, S. Hussein’s Iraq, or any other country that may emerge as an enemy in the near future (i.e., Syria, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, Indonesia, or even India at this stage) do not even remotely qualify. </p>

<p>I would laugh at those who tremble uncontrollably at the thought of the Iranian Army destroying the US Navy and using its 6,000 troop transports, 100 aircraft carriers, and handful of early-nuclear-age-yield nukes to set its HUGE population onto US shores and deprive us of our God-given right to eat pork … if those Americans weren’t so @#$%$ dangerous!!! </p>

<p>Look, it would have been appeasement had we allowed Sadaam Hussein to take Kuwait and its oil fields without responding. Allowing him to have that much oil capacity, with the threat of acquiring Saudi Arabia’s oil capacity as well, would also have been criminally stupid. But it’s not “appeasement” if there is no land grab. N. Korea hasn’t mounted a land grab since 1950, and that was with the backing and at the strong urging of both the USSR and PRC!!! N. Korea is not much of a threat to S. Korea or anyone else at this point unless China lets them off the leash, and that’s not bloody likely. If there’s a strong shift in the international environment, then N. Korea could be a handy ally for China to have, and they’ll protect them for now for that reason. But N. Korea is not a credible threat outside of that situation developing. And if that happens, we have much larger problems on our hands than S. Korea.</p>

<p>What IS it about so many nations that they simply MUST have or manufacture a significant outside threat? For a goodly chunk of my life, we had a legitimate fear of the Soviet Union. That was a REAL threat. But once the Soviets seemed no longer very threatening, we Americans seem to climb up on a chair and scream “EEEEEK!!” every time some mouse comes near.</p>

<p>Now, for the second part of your question: What should we do?</p>

<p>We should @#$%$% relax. The nuclear genie is out of the bottle and has been for some time. For crying out loud, PAKISTAN has the bomb!!! OK?? If Pakistan can get it, anyone can get it. We need to live and deal with a world in which, increasingly, aggressive warfare, other than limited conventional, regional wars, is not a viable option because neither side can “win” without unacceptable losses.</p>

<p>We need to negotiate treaties in which nuclear weapons are carefully inventoried and cannot be made in super-portable sizes. The treaties will have teeth because no one wants nukes in the hands of those who have nothing to lose. If one country can sponsor terrorists with nukes, another can as well or, for that matter, level any country even suspected of supplying nukes to terrorists.</p>

<p>I grew up in a world of fear, where “The Chinese aren’t rational. They don’t value life like we do.” and “The Russians are fanatics who would cheerfully destroy the world to make it safe for commies.” I’ve read enough to know that, in the early years of the nuclear age, both the USSR and the US felt nukes could be used productively and planned to use them. I also know that Mao felt willing to accept a nuclear attack if necessary because he had no clue about what thermonuclear weapons could do. That was the dangerous age.</p>

<p>The proper thing to do with N. Korea is to go through China to point out the realities of life (and China can’t be overly happy about having yet another nuclear power on its border, even one that is a sort-of friend at this point). The reality is that N. Korea is not going to be able to expand. The world is not going to allow an aggressive takeover of S. Korea, nukes or not. If N. Korea uses a nuke, they should know that the world will respond in kind and that we have a LOT more nukes, and a LOT more powerful nukes than they have. If we get the slightest hint that N. Korea might provide nukes to terrorists, then we will take aggressive action. We simply can’t allow that to happen.</p>

<p>In return for being good, N. Korea will get much of what it wants. If that’s to be left alone, then fine. If it’s to open up trade (doubtful), then fine. If N. Korea wants to become an active, respected, vibrant member of the world community, then the world community will help. And if it wants to go into a fetal position and suck its thumb, then that’s perfectly all right so long as it presents no threat to others. Both sides get what they want.</p>

<p>The real danger of nukes at the present is that they fall in the hands of terrorists. I’m not worried about governments unless those governments seem willing to provide nukes to terrorists. I don’t think any government, even one as weird as that in N. Korea, would do that on purpose. I’m WAY more concerned about individual generals selling nukes for profit because the nukes aren’t well-guarded and/or well-inventoried. I think it’s much more likely that terrorists will get a nuke from back-door Russian channels than from an emerging nuclear power.</p>

<p>“Yeah, mini, it might be worth a try. I’ve just never met anyone who actually tried it.”</p>

<p>Read about Quemoy/Matsu and the efforts of the Fellowship of Reconciliation (they sent little bags of rice to Eisenhower) that helped prevent a nuclear strike.</p>

<p>"but the art of love and life amongst discreet, though sinning, souls–thus your careless, if not perfectly disingenuous, misreading of a selfless and character-building good-neighbor policy.
"</p>

<p>Excuse me, but 300 years of early Christian history, and Christian polemic proves you wrong. For the first 300 years, Christians unanimously (there were no exceptions) rejected the use of violence, even in self-defense, even in defense of women and children. The First Council of Nicaea called those who professed Christianity while serving in the military “dogs who eat their own vomit”. They were not talking about a perfect world, a kingdom that was to exist in some hereafter, but in the here and now (“dogs eating their own vomit” was a real world situation, with real governments and real armies and real enemies".)</p>

<p>Paul speaks explicitly not only of what Christians are to do, but the impact upon “enemies”. </p>

<p>You might not like what it says, and that’s your privilege. </p>

<p>“The problem is NK won’t return to the talks and won’t agree to give up its nuclear weapons program.”</p>

<p>North Korea asked for direct talks with the U.S., and specifically with Rice. The U.S. sent a lackey. </p>

<p>“The engagement of recent administrations has approached appeasement. There has been virtually all carrot and no stick, I’d offer.”</p>

<p>I ask again: what specific action did the Bush Administration take over the past 6 years that approached “appeasement”. Somehow I have trouble thinking of Mr. Sleaze as Neville Chamberlain, but I’m listening.</p>

<p>Romans 13:4
“For it [the government] is a minister of God to you for good. but if you do what is evil, be afraid; for it does not bear the sword for nothing; for it is a minister of God, an avenger who brings wrath upon the one who practices evil.”</p>

<p>mini:</p>

<p>Note that I didn’t say there are no real Christians. I said I’d never met anyone who’d actually tried Christianity. I’ve met thousands of pseudo-Christians, though ;-).</p>

<p>At any rate, North Korea is not going to be “cajoled” into giving up their nukes. No country in the history of the world has, starting with our own. Doesn’t happen, and certainly not after having been dissed by the Neville Chamberlain sitting in the White House for 6 years.</p>

<p>So the question then is how to bring them (slowly) into the family of nations. It isn’t going to happen by ranting and raving about the “axis of evil”. You could starve their people still further, but it didn’t work for Clinton in Iraq, didn’t work for anyone with Cuba, and it is even less likely to work in North Korea, where they aren’t eating much to begin with. Chamberlain has now stretched U.S. military forces so thin that, even if he wanted to, war with North Korea is out of the question (and then the U.S. would have to occupy it?) Bomb the nukes, and risk a regional war?</p>

<p>So it seems to me that the most reasonable long-term scenario is to FEED the North Koreans. Malnourished, fearful people don’t rebel. The army is not about to rebel (they are probably happy with the current state of affairs.) But if you feed the North Koreans, eventually they are going to ask where their food came from.</p>

<p>In the meantime, American farmers will be doing the happy dance.</p>

<p>Yesterday while driving home from a funeral the solution to the Iraq war problem came to me. Invite all that country’s Shiites OR all its Sunnis to become U.S. citizens and settle them on and around George Bush’s Texas ranch.</p>

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<p>Not true:</p>

<p><a href=“http://web.mit.edu/ssp/seminars/wed_archives_01spring/albright.htm[/url]”>http://web.mit.edu/ssp/seminars/wed_archives_01spring/albright.htm&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

<p>And also Libya.</p>

<p>tarhunt - thanks for your thoughtful response. </p>

<p>Not sure I agree with your initial assessment of the weakness of my question with regard to pre-WWII Germany, but what the heck, I intended to be provocative. </p>

<p>SKorea has indeed tried recently a velvet glove approach with NKorea and this is the point I wanted to make. This approaches ‘appeasement’ all on its own. We have publicly tried the carrot and stick with NKorea over several Administrations, more like appeasement than not, at stages. This is not always negative. Nor is it always positive. Maybe it should be viewed from the context of the results: if it worked, it’s good; if not it’s bad. </p>

<p>Germany violated agreement after agreement, secretly first, then overtly in the ramp-up to annexing her neighbors in pre-WWII Europe. The references may be gross, but still have parallels to 2006 Korea, I would suggest… and I write more with regard to Iran, than Korea. A huge army poised to roll over SKorea is a close parallel. Europe was willfully blind in allowing it to happen with Germany, because they had been practically bled white in the slaughter of WWI. Stupid, through 2006-version hindsight, but understandable. Reason and negotiation were applied first - then and now. Turns out that Hitler would not be bought off. Obviously, the Dear Leader was not bought off, either. Curiously, Iran has not accepted generous terms to abandon her quest for nuclear weapons. A pattern, perhaps? </p>

<p>I think it’s significant to note that Iran may never be much of a direct military threat to the U.S., but only to the areas local to Iran, which would impact the U.S. through the cost of energy and general area destabilization. Their proxies, though, would be a severe issue for the United States if unleashed. If they control the Strait of Hormuz, well, it could be a bit sticky. It WOULD be worth fighting over. Iran should know it.</p>

<p>I agree with your assessment of the remaining threats - especially from the nuclear inventory of the Former Soviet Union, and with China’s intervention with North Korea. If Japan decides to dump the pacifist stance…well, they would pose a much more significant problem for China. Could be a silver lining there. I suspect China enjoys having NKorea nip at our heels. Might be interesting to suggest quietly to China that Japan is suddenly in interested in buying a lot of American (dual-use) nuclear technology. Maybe we’ll sell it, maybe we won’t. Oh, by the way - what’s that trade deficit looking like today? More tea, perhaps?</p>

<p>I don’t agree that allowing more governments to acquire nuclear weapons technology is a benign event, not that you said it that way. I offer that it is a decidedly negative event to be avoided, perhaps even with military action. War is sometimes essential. I suggest a conventional war is preferable to a nuclear one. War on our terms is better than war on their terms. Further, in this day and age, the best way to not fight a war may well be to be quite ready to fight. Generally, we in the U.S. hate wars, standing armies and demobilize quickly. The Cold War and associated long term war capacity was an unusual event for the U.S., I’d suggest. It will again not be too unreasonable to expect to have to fight a world-wide, two-front war in the near future. Not because NKorea now has the Bomb, but because of how much bolder they and countries like Iran may be as a result. </p>

<p>As to other suggestions that ‘appeasement’ is only viewed in the context of pre-WWII Europe, I suggest that is far too limited a view. SKorea has tried (and is trying) for years to appease the North. Hopefully it works. It hasn’t kept them from developing nuclear weapons.</p>

<p>I agree that feeding the starving masses of NKorea is probably a good strategy - and biblical. But, do we really know the food goes where we think it will? I suspect it first goes to the Dear Leader, then to his staff, then to the Army and what’s left to Industry then to the masses. Lastly, I suspect to widows and orphans.</p>

<p>None of this is about Bush or Clinton. They are bit players who come and go. The Dear Leader has more influence on the outcome than either one of them.</p>

<p>FF -</p>

<p>As noted in the article, they gave up the PROGRAM (not the weapons.)</p>

<p>But that’s just a quibble. The article makes clear that the impetus for giving up the program was steps taking to IMPROVE the security situation of South Africa. So, what steps is Neville Chamberlain Bush prepared to take to improve and protect North Korea’s security situation?</p>

<p>mini,</p>

<p>I see no indication that they have held on to their weapons.</p>