What are my chances for UNC-CH?

Hello, I am currently a junior and am applying to the following schools this year: UMich, Duke, UNC-CH, PSU, and UT-Austin. I am especially interested in UNC, so if someone could help me figure out my chances I would really appreciate it.

I am a white female, out of state, living in rural PA. I go to a small school where very few Honors or AP classes are offered, and I have not had the opportunity to gain any experience in my intended major (anthropology) for this reason. I have taken every advanced class I could:

6 Honors classes (out of 7)
1 AP class (Biology, which I was lucky to have because it is only offered once every few years because of how few people sign up for it. The only other AP class here is AP History, which was only offered my junior year and was impossible for me to fit in my schedule.) I scored a 4/5 on the exam.

I am 4/71 rank wise. My GPA is 4.0 weighted.

I qualified for PMEA Region Band 2 years in a row and PMEA All-State Band last year, and this year I hopefully will as well. I have been our marching band’s drum major 2 years in a row and have had other leadership positions before that. I also placed 1st in last year’s PMEA District Jazz Festival.

I am involved in NHS and have volunteered a little bit outside of school.

My SAT score is 1420, and if this is too low, I could always apply test optional if that is a better choice.

I am pretty good at writing essays, so let’s assume that my essays are, I don’t know, 7, maybe 8/10?

My recommendations should be good, so let’s also assume that those are in a good place.

Did you get your EA application in yesterday? Your chances will likely be less in RD than EA.

I can’t chance you, because there is too much to your app I don’t know (uw GPA, essays, LoRs), but OOS acceptance rate UNC-CH is below 20%, so the school is a reach for all OOS applicants.

Class of 2020 enrolled mid-50% SAT was 1370-1540. Most applicants should send their score if at the median of that range, so ~1450-1460. I would probably not submit a 1420. https://admissions.unc.edu/files/2020/10/Class-Profile-2020_FINAL.pdf

Lastly, is UNC affordable? Not much merit or need based aid for OOS students there. Run the net price calculators at each school on your list to get a cost estimate, here’s UNC’s:

Make sure you have at least one affordable safety on your list.

Good luck.

All of your schools with the exception of PSU (I assume that is Penn State) are reaches even for very high stat kids with lots of rigor. I would add a couple of affordable safeties to your list. PSU may be that school but I would say it is the only one you have a decent chance of getting in. The rest have huge numbers of applications (I think Michigan has over 40k early applications) and low admittance rates and are out of state or private schools so very expensive. Your chances at Duke are vastly improved by applying early decision. My very accomplished high stat son (valedictorian, 35 ACT/1540 SAT, highest rigor, very involved) was rejected at Duke regular decision (last on his list so not a problem as he would not have gone there but I was a little surprised he wasn’t at least waitlisted (got in everywhere else but MIT)). Add a couple of schools for good measure.