What are my chances of Medical school MD admission

Hope you are safe in Covid . What are the chances of Medical school MD in Stanford Univ? Or any other top scools . Please see her profile below

My D is on Pre Med track senior year with 3.9 GPA , MCAT 514 89 percentile and lots of Medical Hospital, shadowing , volunteers, leader of International Med outreach with research experience, summer Internship at Stanford Health care and Great ECs and volunteering hours as well

Thanks in advance

Hopefully she is not only applying to "top’ medical schools.

https://www.aamc.org/system/files/2020-04/2019_FACTS_Table_A-23_0.pdf indicates that 3.9 college GPA and 514 MCAT score falls into the category of applicants with an 81.9% admission rate to a medical school for the 2017-2018 through 2019-2020 application years.

However, admission to a medical school does not necessarily mean admission to any particular medical school. Most medical school applicants are lucky to get one admission out of dozens of applications.

Her odds of an admission are in the low single digits, just based on numbers alone.

Stanford receives ~8000 applications annually for 140 seats.

For the the 2018-19 application cycle, the median GPA for Stanford matriculants was 3.89 and the median MCAT was 518.

Define top school? For the top USNews schools–like NYU, WashU, JHU, etc, her MCAT scores is on the low side. Median Mcat for WashU is 522, NYU-522, JHU–519, Harvard–518 Yale–518, UCSD–517, UMichigan-517. UCLA used to require a 514 just to apply.

To put her score in perspective, a 514 is the median MCAT score for matriculants at Florida, South Florida, Sonybrook, SUNY Downstate and Western Michigan. (I know, I had to double check WMi --but it’s true…)

Every applicant should apply to a range of schools for the best odds of gaining an acceptance.

I strong suggest your D buy access to MSAR (Medical School Admission Requirements)-- available through AMCAS. $30 for 1 one year subscription. It has the GPAs and MCAT scores for every US & Canadian medical school broken down by quartiles.

1 Like

Your home state is the best shot at gaining admission to medical school, because state schools tend to favor state residents. Unfortunately, there’s no “safety” medical school. All you can do is cast a wide net and hope for the best. Your grades and scores are as competitive as any Stanford applicant.

What @coolguy40 said.

Your D’s chance of getting into a medical school are reasonably good. Hopefully she already filed all her applications. It is very hard to get an interview at a school like Stanford with an MCAT score below 520. There are some exceptions to that rule but nothing you mention meets the exceptions.

The chances are best in your home state unless that is California. If you are from Florida as your moniker suggests, there are several schools where she would have home state advantage.

All , Thanks so much for your insight and I agree it is hard for Top med schools . Based on all your suggestions, may be she should focus on Tier 2, 3 OOS med school

. She is on the BS/MD program and her MD admission is guaranteed in her current university ( as her current university in Florida requires
only 3.8 GPA and 512 MCAT And she little over that ) .

AAMC median score she may get few other in state colleges in Florida as her chances are at 81.9 percent

Added some more details to chance for OOS

1.ORM - Indian Asian

2 Medical ECs : as a part of IMO ( international Med outreach ) she volunteers two weeks every year for the past three years in Louisiana, ( under previleged ) , Haiti and Country Columbia

  1. plus several physician shadowing , Med Hospital volunteering etc
  2. Stanford Internship

Based on her score , EC and Ethnicity, would request your suggestions for Tier 2 , Tier 3 OOS schools

Thanks again for your great help

Continued from my previous post

for Emory , stony brook colleges Average MCAT Is 514 . What does it mean . Based on my D credentials, does she stand 50 percent chance.
https://www.â– â– â– â– â– â– â– â– â– â– â– â– â– â– â– â– â– â– â– â– â– â– â– â– â– /blog/average-gpa-and-mcat-score-for-every-medical-school


  1. Have you confirmed that UCF will retain her guaranteed seat even if she applies to other colleges?
  2. What are the driving factors for applying out? Is it to contain cost or want to do MD in higher ranked schools?
  3. I assume, it is ranking since UCF is very cost effective. The only the other 2 schools UF, USF are higher ranked and will cost similar, worth applying. Miami also higher ranked but will cost more.
  4. But if you are keen on T20, the chances are low. No harm to try if willing to put the efforts and not to regret for not tried. But just because of done some internship in Stanford or even done UG in Stanford does not imply the chances are high at Stanford MD.

@florida789 - Congratulations on the guaranteed seat. Not sure if it is worth looking further but since you are here let us explore.

What happens to her seat if she applies out of the guaranteed program?

Indian Asians are expected to meet 75-90% criteria at most medical schools because they are competing against their own over represented applicant pool. So medians and averages of a school don’t apply. If you have access to MSAR, you should look at the 75-90% range numbers and ignore 50%.

What you mention above are standard attributes of most med school applicants that are expected of them - volunteering, shadowing, internships - Stanford or Harvard does not add much value. If you have not done these no one will bother looking at the app.

People tell you they do holistic check of application, dont look at stats alone etc but having gone through that with 2 Indian american kids and working with several others, I believe the applications get ignored unless they start at certain number. There is a generally accepted number called LizzyM number which is 10 times GPA + old MCAT score (you can google for new to old translations) which need to start at 77 or above for most top schools. Add a point or 2 if one attended a top 10-20 school. If there are any published papers, if you are named a fulbright/rhodes/churchill/marshall scholar, volunteered for peace corps etc you get actual real additional weight added to your app.

As you go a little lower, things get complicated. Lot more people apply to schools like Emory thinking they have a shot but they also have very few seats. It is very hard to predict where one actually has a shot other than broadly applying to see who invites you to interviews.

For Stanford, it is likely close to zero. Take a look at the profiles of the current MD students https://med.stanford.edu/profiles/browse?affiliations=capMdStudent
To get into an elite MD program from a “normal” undergraduate program, you would have to do something above and beyond excellent GPA and GMAT. That something could be a MS/PhD in a related field at a top university.

Stanford Med has under 5% acceptance rate. This means 95% don’t get accepted. Plenty of that 95% are well qualified.

You can figure out the odds yourself.

She has a guaranteed medical school seat. I just can’t imagine why she would go through the stress of applying further…and the expense


Not that’s not what that means. Not at all. It means that half of the students admitted to those schools have AT LEAST a 514 MCAT score.

That’s half of the 120 or so admitted to each of those schools out of the 8000+ who applied to each school.

Her chances for an admission to a school where she meets the median test score is still 120 out of 8000 or about a 1.5- 2% chance of getting an acceptance at one of those schools. (You can calculate her odds by dividing the number of available seats by the number of people who apply to the school.)

And you cannot just look at only one metric when it comes to medical school admission. Having a MCAT and GPA in range for a particular medical school just means an application won’t get tossed out right away without someone reading it. Med school admissions are holistic and look at everything in a student’s application–their LORs, the duration and quality of their ECs, their personal statements, their secondary essay answers, their CASPER score if one is required by the school, how well the student fits the mission of the school, how they contribute to the diversity of the class, the impression they make if they have an interview (or apparently this year–how well they present themselves during the VITA standardized online computer-based interview)

If it is UCF, the program requirements are here: https://honors.ucf.edu/admissions/burnett-medical-scholars/program-requirements/ .

The college GPA requirement leaves little room for error – must have a 3.750 GPA overall and in BCPM courses at graduation, and must graduate with university honors and major honors.

For MD study, Stanford appears to be about $180k more over four years than UCF in-state.

Thank you all for your detailed posts with answers to several of my future Questions. As well

My D likes her current Undergrad School and future MD program,. Just She just wanted to try it out Top ranked schools as it gives her opportunities to live in different city , school atmosphere etc . Unlike several BS MD program which are 3 years and locked to try out , her current BS MD in this school is 8 years and allows to try different schools ( per agreement/ contract signed 3 years ago) with out losing her guaranteed spot . For example, several of her seniors from the guaranteed have gone to JHU, Harvard etc.

After reading all your post , based on cost etc.Probably she will focus on applying to all in state schools to see if she gets better scholarship

Thanks once again for great insight information

If this doesn’t include living expenses, then double that amount. The area is very very costly for housing, and all other living expenses.

Your daughter has a guaranteed acceptance. Med school scholarships are very few and far between. They go to tippy top applicants only.

If it were me, I’d save the money on those applications and use it toward medical school costs including living expenses

Indians are the most over-represented race in terms of medical school admissions. So she will really have to stand out among the hordes to get noticed at Stanford.

A good friend of mine went to Harvard medical school, and he was an Indian American. What did he do to stand out? Graduate at the age of 18 from Johns Hopkins with a triple major engineering with high honors. Also awarded a Fulbright scholarship, and finished in 3 years.

While your daughters stats are admirable, she will be up against some fierce competition. Don’t get me wrong, your daughter does have a chance. There are Indians who get into these top medical schools, but their profiles and accomplishments are simply stunning.

This was based on the difference in total student budget (including living expenses) for both schools: $55k per year for in-state UCF, $100k per year for Stanford (+$7k if living off campus).


If this student attends Stanford, will she have $400,000 plus interest in loans? That’s a huge amount of debt.

Thank you so much for the info
Also just learnt about CASPer exam ? Is it required to take before applying to Med schools primary application?