What are my chances? Swarthmore and Vassar

I am considering applying to either Swarthmore or Vassar for ED1 (obvious reaches). Which would be the best fit/highest chance for me?
I am a homeschooled student. (My whole life pretty much)
GPA 3.9 UW
GPA 4.9 W
ACT Score: I am taking the ACT tomorrow and have been consistently getting 32/33 on practice, expect around a 31/32 on the actual test.
I have 4 or 5 APS, depending on what I take next semester.
I have 4 college courses (will take 3 more next semester)
All other courses are honors.
Took competitive courses and did Calculus at sophomore level, don’t think that will matter too much though.

Accepted to 2 competitive internships at a sea turtle hospital
Done Tae Kwon Do for over 11 years. (2nd degree black belt)
Volunteered at my local Humane Society (150+hours)
Captain of my highschool bowling team. (since I am zoned for that highscool, I can join the bowling team)
Won multiple bowling tournaments statewide.
Finalist at Pepsi tournament.

Part of multiple bowling leagues.
Done Hapkido for around 1.5 years.

Essays: I would either submit one about how traveling has affected my life, or how bowling has affected my life. I’m currently writing both, will decide at the last minute knowing me.

From my internships, as well as my bowling coaches. Will try to get one from my college professor (would a college recommendation be even more helpful?). I expect them to be amazing, considering I am only asking people who really like me.

Extra: Because of the flexibility of homeschooling, I have traveled all over the world. I would talk about this in the Swarthmore supp essay that they ask of homeschooled students.
Was a volunteer at multiple events at the Sea Turtle Hospital.

I would probably apply as in International Studies Major.

I’m a male from Florida.
Applying ED to Vassar as a male definitely helps.
I also love Swarthmore but it’s definitely a major reach. I don’t know how much either school likes homeschooled students.

I know it’s hard to pinpoint exact acceptance chances, but any help would be appreciated! Or any tips to improve my chances.

The other school I am considering for ED1 is Middlebury, another reach. Thanks again.