What are my chances?

First time posting in a forum, yay!

I just finished my junior year and I think I’ve finalized my decisions as to where I am applying to:
University of Michigan (Early Action)
University of Southern California
University of California Berkeley (not sure whether I’m applying or not, I still need to visit the campus…even though I’m from Northern California…)
University of California Los Angeles
And if I don’t get accepted into Michigan, University of Oregon (which isn’t due until January 15, I believe).

The reason why the list is so short is because my parents required that the universities be in state (California) or Oregon, and no state universities, while I really want to continue marching band in college.

Michigan has been my dream school since freshman year, so when my parents gave in and said I could choose one out-of-state (out-of-region?) school to apply to, that was the obvious decision (also since my chance of being accepted into an Ivy League are even lower).

Most people say that I’m good to get into all, but I feel like they’re just being too nice, since they’re my friends.
What are you guys’ honest opinions?

Basic stats:
Unweighted GPA: 3.94
Weighted GPA: 4.37
SAT: 1560 (770 reading, 790 math) with 5/3/5 essay; first try was 1480 (700 reading, 780 math) with 7/6/7 essay
Class rank: 42/597 (it fluctuates every term, but I think I will be graduating in the 40-50 zone)

I received a 5 on the AP World History exam last year and took AP US History and AP Calculus AB this year; my senior year classes are: AP Environmental Science, the two AP Governments, the two AP economics, AP Calculus BC, AP Literature, AP French 4, and band.

My extracurriculars are pretty limited, just 4 years of marching/concert/pep band and 12 years of basic ballet (average 2.25 hours/week in high school) (and about 200 hours of community service and 3 years of participation in CSF (California Scholarship Foundation), if that counts).

The four I decided on are all at about the same admission level, right? So would it be highly possible that I am significantly more likely to be accepted into one and rejected from the other three?

That was probably a lot of questions ;))

Thanks for your help and sorry for any typos! :x

It seems you have a really good shot with Michigan. I’d prob say atleast an 80% chance. One thing I have noticed though is Essays matter A LOT for Michigan. I’ve seen people get into LSA and Ross with a 3.6 and 34 ACT, and others get denied with a 4.4 and a 1540.

You are likely in at Michigan (and of course Oregon)
SC, LA, and Berkeley can go either direction