What are my chances?

Not as stunning academically as most of the people here, but, here we go.
Applying to:
UC Merced - safety
UC Riverside - target
UC Santa Cruz - target
UC Irvine - target/reach
UC Davis - target/reach
UC Santa Barbara - reacg
UW Madison - target

GPA - 3.632 UW, 3.85 W
Class Size - 605
School doesn’t rank
SAT - 1300
SAT Essay - 20
PSAT - 1460

Intented Major: Economics (all)

ECs/awards
Marching Band - Top 30 nationally
Boy Scouts - not eagle scout sadly
Spanish Club
Commended Scholar PSAT

Applying all regular decision

Are you in the top 9% and officially identified as ELC? https://admission.universityofcalifornia.edu/admission-requirements/freshman-requirements/california-residents/local-guarantee-elc.html

Do you want to do marching band in college? San Diego State could be a good choice, both for econ (with multiple track options https://economics.sdsu.edu/undergraduate/major.html ) and for band ( https://music.sdsu.edu/index.php/bands/marching_aztecs ). I’m not sure any of the UC’s has a marching band that approaches the quality of SDSU’s. Don’t let the CSU application deadline (same as UC’s) go by without considering this and other potential target and safety opportunities in the CSU system.

I’m sure one of the UC gurus here will post the admissions stats at the different UC campuses for your stat bracket. My guess is that Irvine, Davis, and SB are all reaches - not saying you shouldn’t apply, but typically it’s a long shot without clearing a 4.0 weighted GPA. (If there aren’t many honors/AP classes offered at your school, such that your opportunities for weighting were limited, then it will help that your application will be viewed in that context.)

You’ll have time to consider additional possibilities once your UC and CSU apps are done - mainly I’d encourage you to apply to a few CSU schools before that window of opportunity closes. After those apps are in, there may be additional good suggestions to be made. (WUE schools and private U’s depending on your family’s budget - if you can afford the 55K/year out-of-pocket that UW-Madison would cost, then there are definitely options in that range.)

Is your 3.85 Weighted GPA, your capped weighted UC GPA?

UC’s tend to be very GPA focused so under a 4.0 Capped weighted will make the admits for the Mid-tier UC’s a slight Reach.

Your SAT score is within range but your PSAT score is not a consideration for admissions.

2018 Freshman admit rates for UC GPA of 3.80-4.19 capped weighted and not major specific:
UCB: 10%
UCLA: 9%
UCSD: 34%
UCSB: 38%
UCD: 41%
UCI: 38%
UCSC: 70%
UCR: 84%
UCM: 95%

2019 UC capped weighted GPA averages along with 25th-75th percentile range:
UCB: 4.23 (4.15-4.30)
UCLA: 4.25 (4.18-4.32)
UCSD: 4.16 (4.03-4.28)
UCSB: 4.16 (4.04-4.28)
UCI: 4.13 (4.00-4.25)
UCD: 4.13 (4.00-4.26)
UCSC: 3.96 (3.76-4.16)
UCR: 3.90 (3.69-4.11)
UCM: 3.73 (3.45-4.00)

2019 Data:
25th - 75th percentiles for SAT totals:
UCB: 1340-1540

UCLA: 1330-1550
UCSD: 1300-1520
UCSB: 1280-1520
UCD: 1230-1490
UCI: 1250-1510
UCSC: 1200-1450
UCR: 1130-1400
UCM: 1020-1290

Econ is becoming a more selective/capped/impacted major at many of the campuses.

I would also advise you to consider applying to 1-2 Cal states but if you are happy attending UCM as your safety, then you are fine.

UCD’s Band-Uh is a great option if you are interested in a Marching Band.

Best of luck.

Not weighted cap I believe.
Did 2 honors last year giving me the 3.85
Have 3 APs this year so 1 will be lost I believe, but will have an A most likely in 2 of them.

Are the Honors UC approved Honors classes from this HS list? https://hs-articulation.ucop.edu/agcourselist

Use the Rogerhub calculator to determine all 3 of your UC GPA’s. The capped weighted is the most often quoted GPA for statistical purposes.

https://rogerhub.com/gpa-calculator-uc/

@typhoonmate51 As others have said above, I’d apply to some CSUs. Having just one safety (UC Merced) is risky. Some CSUs have extended their deadlines, and are still open for Economics majors:

Sonoma 12/15/2019
Channel Islands 12/16/2019
Bakersfield 1/6/2020
Humboldt 2/28/2020
https://www2.calstate.edu/apply/Pages/application-dates-deadlines.aspx

(In the above link, scroll down, and choose “Freshman” and “Fall 2020” and click on “Submit”. Then scroll down again and click on “See notice” after each school)