What are my potentials and ceilings?

Hello there! I’m currently an upcoming junior in high school and I am wondering where my current grades will take me and how I can improve to go to the schools I want. Let me start off with my freshman year. I slacked off at times and didn’t really take school seriously and ended the year with a 3.0. Same can be said for the first semester of my sophomore year. However, I started focusing and studying more because I realized that education is vital for my future success. I’m projected to end with a 3.8 in the next couple of weeks. I’m starting to look at some colleges and my goal is to get accepted into UCR,UCI, CSULB, or UCLA (mostly because I live near there). My backup plan that many say is a definite lock is CSUF simply because I live very close there. Next year, some notable classes I’m taking are Pre-Calc and AP Chem. Unfortunately my counselor didn’t have faith in me and prevented me from taking too many classes I wanted to. I am currently in my school’s Key Club and an out of school program called Youth Leadership America.  Here are some questions I need answers to.
Do colleges look at freshman year GPA and add it up?
Do colleges look at senior year GPA? I am expecting to be taking many hard classes then.
Do colleges like improvement?
Assuming I get a 4.2 next year and my projected SAT score is 1350-1450( I got a 1300 on the PSAT and am using that for reference) what colleges I mentioned earlier are in reach.
If the above answer is yes, what are my chances?
Is UCLA out of reach? If not, what can I do to make myself a considerable applicant?
What matters more? SAT or GPA? I’ve been hearing that SAT score matters more b/c GPA can be inflated
In case I was being too vague, when colleges ask for my GPA, do they want my career GPA or soph/junior year.
 
That is all. Thanks for spending your time reading this!

I can’t say anything regarding those specific college’s.

You mentioned a 4.2. This means you are talking about a weighted gpa. For several reasons, college’s want to see an unweighted gpa or will translate your grades into their own weighted gpa which may or may not match your school’s.

What matters more gpa/test) depends on the school. In most cases it truly is a combination of the two.

College’s will look at your total gpa. However I have readed many times about a compelling statement/essay where appropriate in the application process about how you turned things around will help.

Your unweighted gpa might be available in your transcript. You can also calculate it by taking each class and assigning a 4 for an a, 3 for b, 2 for c, 1 for d, 0 for f. Add this up and divide by total number of classes.

Also, you can call the schools to find out what they use to calculate high school gpa.

I think you’re looking too far into the distant future.

Concentrate, right now, on finishing sophomore year as strongly as you can. Ace your finals. Put as much time as you can into your weakest areas, go to extra help, do whatever is within your power to bring your grades to where you want to be for this year.

The reason that your guidance counselor “didn’t have faith in you” is because, as you admit, you “really didn’t take school seriously” for the first year and a half of high school. You need to prove to her that you’ve changed, that you do have the academic ability and the desire to turn thing around.

I’m not sure that “very close” is the best reason for choosing a college. Sure, all kids have geographic requirements. But look more into the schools on your list to see that they have your major-- you didn’t mention one-- and that they’re a place where you want to live and learn for 4 years.

First you need to calculate your CSU/UC GPA which uses only 10-11th grades for your a-g courses:

https://rogerhub.com/gpa-calculator-uc/

UC’s and CSU’s do not use Senior grades to determine admission acceptances but you need to maintain your grades Senior year or you could be rescinded. An upward trend will be noted.

If you are interested in private schools, then 9-11th grades will be used in their GPA calculation and many ask for Mid-year Senior grades. Figuring out your unweighted is the best indicator for these schools.

All the Cal States and the majority of the UC’s will use the capped/weighted GPA (8 semesters of honors/AP courses) while UCLA/UCB will also use the fully weighted UC GPA.

Cal States admit by major and eligibility index (except SLO). No essays and EC’s are not considered.

Eligibility index is (CSU/UC GPA x800) + (SAT Math + CR)
You are then ranked by your major and EI. Applicants are accepted from the top down until all spots are filled.
Being local gives you priority for CSU Fullerton, but no guarantee due to impaction. Impacted majors and campuses have higher standards than non-impacted majors/campuses.

http://www.calstate.edu/sas/onestopkiosk/documents/CSULocalAdmission-ServiceAreas.pdf

https://www.calstate.edu/sas/documents/impactedprogramsmatrix.pdf

UC’s are very GPA focused, but your test scores, HS course rigor, EC’s and essays will all contribute to your chances. Again intended major will play a role in your chances since competitive majors such as Engineering/CS, Psychology, Biology etc… will required higher than average stats to get an acceptance.

Once you have some test scores and your CSU/UC GPA calculated, please repost.

The UC’s and CSU’s usually post their updated Freshman profile stats in August so you can browse their websites to give you an idea of your chances.

The following data gives you an idea of chances just based on GPA for the UC’s. Again, intended major will impact your chances.

Freshman admit rates for UC GPA of 3.40-3.79:

UCB: 2%
UCLA: 3%
UCSD: 6%
UCD: 15%
UCSB: 14%
UCI: 13%
UCSC: 59%
UCR: 78%
UCM: 92%

Freshman admit rates for UC GPA of 3.80-4.19:

UCB: 14%
UCLA: 14%
UCSD: 44%
UCSB: 54%
UCD: 58%
UCI: 65%
UCSC: 85%
UCR: 94%
UCM: 96%

Freshman admit rates for UC GPA of 4.20 or above:

UCB: 42%
UCLA: 54%
UCSD: 87%
UCSB: 85%
UCD: 91%
UCI: 94%
UCR/UCM: 98%

Best of luck

Although colleges don’t look at senior grades, do they take into the account of the difficulty or the classes? I.E. I’m pretty sure my only math option senior year is AP Calc. Do they really care besides for college creds?

Yes, they do take into account your Senior year course rigor. They want to see that you are continuing to challenge yourself.

Thanks!

If the main reason you want to go to UCLA is that you live near there you might want to spend some more time looking into what makes a college a good fit