It sounds like you’re pretty early in the process?
I think it’s likely you’ll get more clarity as you get further along.
Some of this depends on the sport and types of schools. But honestly there really aren’t that many schools with really outstanding need-based aid. (I don’t think GT is one of them but I could be wrong).
You’ll likely find that the intersecting area of the Venn diagram (athletic fit, FA, etc) leaves a pretty manageable list.
I certainly wouldn’t exclude ED schools early on.
You can have conversations with the FA folks if it gets that far and I suspect you’ll get clarity from that.
Then you can see what the options are and weigh those against other potential options.
Yes, in the end you might need to make a decision based on imperfect info about the road not taken. That’s what many athletic recruits do.
But yes you could also be in the position where, say, Columbia comes back with an affordable FA pre-read and answers all your questions about the NCP waiver. At that point, having gone through the process it’ll likely be an easy decision one way or the other for you.