The Dale & Krueger study did not focus on students who applied to elite colleges but were rejected. It focused on students who were accepted by both elite and less selective colleges, then chose to attend one or the other. You can access their papers online.
Other researchers have come to different conclusions, and as far as I know, other kinds of outcomes (besides earnings) haven’t been studied as widely.
I may have missed it, but what are you planning on majoring in?
@Lindagaf Wow, thank you for such a detailed answer! It’s given me a lot to think about. I honestly don’t know if I’m a “grow where you’re planted” or a “grow when planted in the right place” type of person. I go to a small, competitive high school, which I’m guessing would be more like WUSTL, where even if you get great grades, you’re not at the top of your class because there are others just like you. Although I’m not really one to talk about intellectual stuff, discuss politics and philosophy outside of class, etc., I definitely like that environment. I’m not really a very outgoing, extroverted person, so I don’t know where I would fit in better; probably WUSTL, because it’s less of a party school with less emphasis on Greek Life. However, the U of A is much more generous with offering AP credit for classes, so I might even be able to come in with sophomore standing.
Being from CA, I’m guessing you see more U of A grads than WUSTL grads, simply because of the distance. Would the better career services/advising from WUSTL equalize the proximity of the U of A to California in terms of finding a job?
My mom wants me to go to WUSTL because she thinks it would make me break out of my comfort zone by being in such a new place. I feel like because college is so different than high school, I could do that at the U of A also. That said, it would also be nice to have a friend group to fall back on at the U of A. I know many people who are going there. I wouldn’t be going home every weekend, but it would also be nice to get a home-cooked meal once in a while. Also, I’m 17, and I can’t ignore the fact that the U of A has some of the most attractive students 
Honestly, I am so confused and do not know what to do. I am going to a summer orientation at Wash U next week, so I’ll get a second feel for the campus. There are about two weeks in between when I get back from orientation and the deadline to accept the U of A, so I’ll take it from there.
Also, if worst comes to worst, once I get a better idea of what I want to major in, I can transfer to USC and be in CA.
@EllieMom If I go to WUSTL, I think I will major in Systems Engineering, and if I go to the U of A, I think I will major in Industrial Engineering. This is not set in stone though. I’m also thinking of Computer Science, EE, Accounting, and going to med school. I’ve heard that for these professions, the name of the school does not matter as much.
@eyemgh At the U of A, I would major in Industrial Engineering, and at WUSTL I would major in Systems Engineering. However, this could change, as I am also thinking about Computer Science, EE, Accounting, and medical school.
I’ve read both of the Krueger studies. You might try at least reading the abstracts before correcting me.
@Ariz0na , in reading your responses, I have to say that you seem inclined towards UA. Maybe this is because you are more familiar with it. You mention a number of positives, plus the mere fact that you just haven’t been able to say no yet. But I also haven’t seen the tell-tale claim of “I can’t believe I got off the waitlist to one of my top choices!” which makes me think your heart isn’t with WUSTL. Or maybe I missed that part.
Are you in the honors program? If so, I guarantee you will meet like-minded and intelligent people. There are benefits to honors programs, which make H programs popular for top students. Yes, you will find rigor, especially in your upperclassmen years, esepcially in an ABET accredited program. Avoiding Greek life at a huge school is easier than at a smaller school, so I would not factor that in. You will find friends (and attractive people) at either school, don’t worry. As far as home cooked meals, I advise you to go home as little as possible. Kids who make a habit of going home often in freshman year don’t tend to do as well. The key to enjoying college and settling in is assimilating. If you think you will be unable to resist going home often, go to WUSTL. Really. Getting out of your comfort zone is important. You are right though that college itself helps you do that.
I would say as far as jobs, your proximity to CA, and being in the H program, I honestly don’t see any disadvantage if you attend UA. No doubt you will have excellent opportunities at WUSTL too. When my D got off the WL to one of her top choices, she had a hard time deciding. I asked her to consider that with the school she deposited at, her job opportunities were more likely to be in the region where her school was, and the same with the school she was offered the spot at. She ended up choosing the WL school in large part due to that. Of course, WUSTL is a top notch school and I am sure there will be opportunities from all over. However, I am very certain that it will be much tougher to stand out at WUSTL. WUSTL doesn’t have a cutthroat reputation, but you may well feel more pressure to perform and do well there, becasue you will be surrounded by really great students. I can’t imagine AU will have that kind of atmosphere, even in the H program. Maybe that can help you decide.
I agree with @Lindagaf, especially if you want to work in CA.
I have nothing against WUSTL. It was a strong regional school when I grew up in Missouri. Truth be told though, they, along with many of the new nationally popular strong regional schools like Case Western, Vanderbilt, Rochester, Rice, etc. are popular due to USNWR. Without it, they are all solid regional schools. Because of our fascination with order, this is no longer enough. WUSTL is world class at one thing, medicine. Well before USNWR, it was internationally regarded. It’s engineering program is solid, but not something that will spark any amazingly strong interest in CA from anyone who didn’t go to school there.
@roethlisburger, perhaps you and I are interpreting D&K findings differently. If as you state above D&K did find “those who applied to elite schools did just as well as those who went to elite schools” (regardless of the admission decisions), I agree that would be an interesting conclusion.
Anyway, whether your interpretation or mine is correct is irrelevant to the OP at this point.
He has both applied to, and been accepted by, both kinds of colleges. So according to either interpretation of D&K, choosing the more elite instead of the less elite college may not have a very significant impact. Not on his career earnings, at least.
Choosing a more “elite” school can situationally have a negative impact on career success. This is especially true for fields where recruiting is heavily regional like engineering or where the reputation of an institution as defined by USNWR is incongruous with the reputation in a specific industry, Harvard engineering being a great example. It’s USNWR ranking for engineering far outstrips where any engineer would put it, probably by a hundred or so spots.
@eyemgh Another reason why I feel like transferring to USC or UCLA might serve me well - good engineering programs in the region I would like to work in.
If a study comes to a truly bizarre conclusion, you might conclude there’s a problem with the methodology. Unless that is, you think there’s some causal relationship between applying to Caltech and a kid’s future income, even for the rejected students. My advice to the OP would be not to believe the Dale and Krueger studies.
I think that it depends which two schools you are comparing. Different people will have different opinions on this. Some of my opinions related to comments above:
“Social environment—Being in an environment where most of the people around you are both talented and committed to excellence can be challenging and exhilarating or overwhelming and intimidating.”
I think that it is true that a higher percentage of students at a highly ranked school will be more dedicated to their studies. However, it is probably also true that at some “prestigious” schools you will have a higher percentage of people who some might describe as “stuck up”. A friend of a friend had a child go to a prestigious school for one year – they transferred out because they didn’t like the attitudes of many students there. At a very good state school there might be a higher percentage of people who prefer to get drunk on weekends, or even on other days. However, you will find very good students at pretty much any university, and you will find people that you don’t like (for one reason or another) pretty much anywhere.
“Definition of self—Some people feel better when they have the social-recognition that going to a prestigious school evokes in others.”
But, in my experience going to a prestigious school doesn’t actually do much to make other people like or respect you. Very soon after graduation you are going to be judged on the basis of what you can do and how you are as a person to work with. No one is going to want to know that you went to Harvard or that you got 1580 on your SAT, any more than when you are in graduate school you are going to want to dwell on getting a 104 (including the “extra credit” problem at the end) on a test when the class average was 43. If you do go the prestigious school, then please don’t dwell on it once you are in the workforce.
"That’s a GREAT question and the answer is a resounding…it depends. "
This I agree with. It is hard to say which is better without looking carefully at the particular major and especially the particular school.
“However, the “top 20” school is much more selective at the admissions gate, so that it has much stronger students to begin with.”
Some have contended, and I also believe, that the main difference on graduation rates comes from the students that the school accept and attract.
““Lesser” schools accept lesser students, skewing their stats.”
On average (which is what matters to stats), yes. However, there are plenty of very strong students at public schools. The stats are diluted by the fact that there are also some “not quite as strong students” at state schools.
If you are considering a very good state flagship versus a “top 20” private school, I would look at the finances. If you need any significant debt for the private school, then I would go with the public (unless there is something significant wrong with it).
@roethlisburger
If Dale & Krueger are claiming that students who even apply to elite colleges can be expected to enjoy the same average earnings as elite college alumni, I agree you’d be right to be skeptical. In that case, I wonder why these studies are cited so widely.
Apropos of the OP’s topic question, IMO a non-bizarre conclusion would be that what makes prestigious colleges “better” (with respect to earnings outcomes) is the students. These colleges cherry-pick applicants who have characteristics associated with high earnings. This is D&K’s conclusion (as I interpret them). Their proof is that even the cherry-picked students who choose to go elsewhere still have similar earnings.
@DadTwoGirls Thanks for the response. I wanted to keep the schools unnamed to elicit generalized responses about my question, but I guess being more specific would help. The private school is WUSTL, and the state school is the University of Arizona. My tentative major for the U of A is Industrial Engineering, and for WUSTL it is Systems Engineering. Although I’m not certain I want to major in engineering, I know I want to do something STEM related (plus accounting). My parents are willing to pay for both and would not incur any debt.
Wash U has one of the wealthiest student bodies, but from the people I’ve talked to who have attended, they say that it is not snobby or pretentious. I’m sure there will be a handful of people like that, but apparently that is not the norm.
I go to one of the top high schools nationwide, and the student body mirrors what people have been saying about more prestigious schools - academically oriented, high pressure to excel, and challenging. I kinda like this environment, but then again it might be harder for me stand out and get those coveted internships/jobs in CA.
On a previous post of mine, somebody said that between these two schools, there isn’t a huge difference in difficulty of getting a job in CA. U of A might be known there more, though, because of proximity and sports.
I definitely love Tucson, more so than St Louis, and would not mind living here for four more years. However, my parents have been saying that college is a time to explore a different part of the country without many adult responsibilities.
Basically my goals are to get a degree in a stem field and either land a job, or get into med school, depending on how engineering works out, in California.
I think this question boils down to what I want from my college experience, but the truth is I have no idea. I honestly don’t know if the state school environment or a competitive private environment would suit me better. I also have a problem with indecisiveness and thinking “what if” about past things, so these past two months have been super stressful.
Sigh.
I don’t want to go OT on these studies here, but I’ll end with this nytimes quote:
@roethlisburger, to your original question in post #9, it doesn’t matter whether they applied or not. The largest, most recent, controlled study compared GPA and SAT of those who applied and were accepted to a matched group that didn’t apply and found each group faired similarly. Whether they applied or not, as was studied by Krueger, is really a non sequitur. What matters is whether or not they were fully qualified to matriculate. Those who are, do well in large part no matter where they end up.
If you are considering transferring you need to know what the requirements are. Some CA schools have most of their spots held for students transferring from CCs they serve and thus very few slots left for transfers from other 4 year institutions.
“The private school is WUSTL, and the state school is the University of Arizona.”
I can see why you have having trouble deciding. Great choices!
“Wash U has one of the wealthiest student bodies, but from the people I’ve talked to who have attended, they say that it is not snobby or pretentious.”
One daughter has a friend who went there. “Wealthy but nice, down to earth, and not pretentious at all” would be a very good description. I am finding myself wondering if there is some way that the university could attract or accept this kind of kid intentionally. Obviously a sample size of one does not mean much.
It sounds like there is no bad choice, and not even a “just okay” choice. I will admit that I was quite impressed by WUSTL when I visited once (a long time ago).
One question might be “would WUSTL be a significant squeeze on your parents finances”?
Another question: What you you want to do?
I am also wondering why you didn’t need to decide earlier than now.
Do you have a link to whatever study you’re referring to?
Again, in reading your latest post, you clearly favor UA. This is what I hear you saying: “I actually think I will enjoy UA and there are sound reasons for choosing it, but I am still not sure I shouldn’t pick the more prestigious school with a culture that is similar to what I am already used to at my high school.” I am not hearing any “I don’t think I will do well in that environment (UA)” or I don’t see myself at UA becasue it’s too big and I don’t think I will like the students." All of your references to WUSTL come back to prestige and wealthy, intellectual students. If anything, I actually think going to UA will force you out of your comfort zone and give you the chance to be a top student.
As a parent, I get that parental pressure is hard to ignore, and we are all a bunch of strangers who don’t know you. I think in your case, given your goals, you have a chance here to stand out and be in a postiton to get where you want to go, more so than in St. Louis. Your parents want the best for you, but more than that they want you to thrive and be happy. I just get the sense that WUSTL is not going to be the place for you to do that, though I personally think it’s a wonderful school and I have heard nothing but good things about it.
You have said you are an indecisive person. Let me take the liberty of deciding for you. 
I think you shouldn’t bother going to WUSTL at all. I suspect you will visit and be even more confused. It’s time to man up and commit. Just tell your parents that after a lot of thought and research, (and getting advice from random strangers), eveything points to UA. There is no passion or excitement in your voice about WUSTL at all, except for a prestige carrot just dangling there, tempting you. Ignore the carrot.
@Lindagaf Once again, thanks for taking the time to reply. I will definitely show this post to my parents. I think, since I’ve already signed up for a summer orientation at Wash U, I will get another look at the campus and, if I get a bad vibe, I will probably commit to the U of A.
But you are spot on about me now having any passion or excitement in my voice about WUSTL. Yesterday I had a little graduation party, and I felt off/disappointed/unexcited telling people that I’d be headed to WUSTL.
I can’t remember if I had already mentioned it in this thread, but I was deciding between WUSTL and UCLA before the May 1 deadline. They were both neck and neck but I ended up not choosing UCLA. I’ve been beating myself up for it for the past month now, and when I heard from a friend who attended my party say that he was heading to UCLA, I felt happy for him but also kinda depressed that I would not be able to have the experience he will have.
I think I will give whatever school I end up going to my all, a good shot, but transferring to USC or UCLA seems more and more tempting.
@DadTwoGirls Neither school would burden my parents financially. I’m thinking of majoring in Systems Engineering or Industrial Engineering (at WUSTL and UA, respectively). However I’m also interested in CS, accounting, and possibly med school.
I had to make the tough choice between WUSTL and UCLA before May 1. I ended up committing to WUSTL, a decision which I now regret. I even tried emailing UCLA shortly after the deadline to see if they could revert my decision to decline, but they said no. However, I have until July 3 to commit or not commit to the U of A.