<p>Today was the first day in my abnormal psychology class and the teacher told us to raise our hand if we planned on going to grad school to become a doctor. Out of the class of about 70, i would say that about 60 people raised their hands. So about 85% of my class mates raised their hands. From what i understand, only about 4% of college undergrads go on to become doctors. What happens to all of those people who claim that they are going to be doctors?</p>
<p>I’ve researched how many people even apply to schools that offer doctoral programs and statistically only about 8% of the people in my class who said they are planning on becoming a doctor will ever even apply to a graduate school. I mean close to 90% of the class said they are planning on becoming a doctor but 92% of them will never even apply to a doctoral program. What happens to all of those people in between the time someone is an undergrad junior, saying they want to go to grad school, and the eight months later when they need to start applying? </p>
<p>On a side note, i am planning on at least trying to become a clinical psychologist. Then again my advantage over my class mates who say they are going to also, is that i will probably be one of five people who shows up to every class, reads the book, and gets an A (the average grades in this class in a C). With in a month, that 70 student class will be reduced to a 20 person class (many of them only showing up periodically) and we will only see the other 50 on test day.</p>
<p>Well, it sounds like there may be some confusion on the terminology here. Somonee who wants to become a medical doctor (MD) goes to medical school. Someone who wants to earn a Ph.D. (a degree that prepares you for research, not clinical practice) goes to what most people refer to as “graduate school.” Somewhere in between are graduate programs where you can earn a Psy.D., which is a typical degree for practicing clinical psychologists. People who have earned either an M.D., Ph.D., or Psy.D. are all sometimes referred to as “doctor.”</p>
<p>So when you ask a class full of undergrads who wants to become a doctor, the people who reply could, in theory, be future medical doctors, researchers, or clinical psychologists. So maybe only 8% of future “doctors” plan to apply to graduate school, and the rest will apply to medical school or Psy.D. programs.</p>
<p>If you haven’t done so already, you will encounter a well known result from the psych lit that people are generally overconfident, males reliably more so than females as a group. Especially during the early years at competitive programs, everyone tends to assume that they are far above average because they have been so through all of their earlier life. In addition to normal overconfidence they have not yet properly updated their priors for the effects of selection bias. So while some of the mismatch between individual expectations and the base rate may result from confusion about what was meant by “grad school” and “doctor”, I think that most of it can be accounted for by the scenario thinking form of base rate neglect. Your argument for your own chances is not without merit but it displays all of the hallmarks of scenario thinking.</p>
<p>This is one of the main reasons that some of the more experienced regular contributors to this forum constantly advise posters to just pursue their true interests and worry about doing their best now rather than trying to plan elaborate and unlikely to be fulfilled paths to multiple advanced degrees from elite programs.</p>
<p>Fortunately achievement of these elusive goals has very little to do with happiness and fulfillment. There are plenty of unhappy and unfulfilled academics and other researchers. In fact, I would assert that a certain propensity for feeling unfulfilled actually works in favor of goal achievement. As you’re interested in psych you might want to do some research into the so-called imposter syndrome.</p>
<p>“Your argument for your own chances is not without merit but it displays all of the hallmarks of scenario thinking.”</p>
<p>Well i think i am a bit different than most of those who raised their hands today. First off, i am older than almost everyone in the class and probably a bit more familiar with how college works and the processes of getting into grad school. I think it is laughable that so many people expect to get into one of the most completive fields while getting C’s, never reading the book, and showing up a few days a semester for class. It is clearly going to be a majority of people who raised their hands. I have been in college for a long time now, this class will be a ghost town in a few weeks, it never fails.</p>
<p>Second, i am realistic about my chances. I think i have a better shot than my fellow students but i’m not saying “i have this wrapped up and they are all screwed.” Clinical psychology is extraordinarily difficult to just get into. I have a high GPA (including a 4.0 in my major area), should have good letters of recommendation, and clinical experience going into the application process and i am first trying for a masters programs, before i even think about doctoral. Even with all of that i know it will be very difficult. I’m not saying i have anywhere near a sure shot. I didn’t raise my hand because i am taking this one step at a time. Right now i’m not thinking “i’m going to be a doctor in a few years.” That is my ultimate dream but i’m not trying to leap to that. I know too much about how this whole thing works to fool myself into thinking it is guaranteed. </p>
<p>What i saw today was a bunch of people (nearly all girls by the way, psychology is dominated by women) completely sure that they are going to one day be a doctor. Odds are a few will but i just find it interesting that with in a year or two, nearly all of them will give up on that goal for the rest of their lives. Most will never even fill out the application for any grad program, let alone become a doctor. It makes you wonder what happens in that year or so and how serious many of them actually are.</p>
<p>Y’know, I find it really hard to believe that only 8% of people who plan on pursuing higher education in psych would ever go on to fill out a grad program application. Where did that number come from? I can see how acceptance rates could be so low, if people are uneducated about their odds when they apply. But the idea that 92% of people fully intending to be doctors during their junior year will not apply at all is absurd. I really want to know how that number was calculated.</p>
<p>In general I think all those people who say they want to apply and get into a clinical psych grad program don’t succeed mainly because their research experience sucks. The current 50-70 year old cohort of professors might have gotten in to grad school just by being research assistants during their undergrad career and maybe even later! But those days are long gone. You need to have your own project, present, and publish, preferably in APA journals - preferably a year before your apply. It really is all about research - if the student doesn’t get good mentorship in research that student will be completely lost. Most students probably get seriously interested in research during their junior year but that’s just too late. To be an top candidate by the fall of senior year, the student should start serious research by the end of their second year. </p>
<p>For students who fail at getting into PhD programs in clinical psych here’s many options. Popular options include: postbac premed programs, lab coordinatorships, more research assistanships (NIH is popular), PsyD, regular non-psych jobs, etc.</p>
<p>I think it should be pointed out that overconfidence is sometimes a good thing, at least for society. The entrepreneurship literature details how most entrepreneurs are vastly overconfident about their ability to succeed. And that’s probably necessary. If they weren’t overconfident, they wouldn’t dare to start their own companies, and we wouldn’t enjoy the pace of technological innovation that we do. Most of the popular Internet services - Google, Facebook, Yahoo, eBay, Amazon, MySpace, etc. - were commercialized by highly confident entrepreneurs.</p>
<p>Haha I remember the terminology confusion with my aunt (who is a MD). She asked me “So you want to be a doctor?” I said, “Um, Aunt, well… not that sense… I’m going to graduate school, not medical school!” :)</p>
<p>One of the staff member at my university lamented to me that for the quality of education that we receive there, it’s a shame that not many of us go for our PhDs. Out of many people I know, I know only 4-5 people personally who are currently applying for PhDs… other than that… people are looking for jobs or applying to law schools. I’m the only one in my closest group of friends who is going for a PhD (and even dares to dream of it).</p>
<p>Yes, I agree that the first two years or so should be devoted to finding what you really like and can see yourself spending summers doing. Then by mid-junior year, it’s a good time to talk to professors without flipping them out and receiving vague advice. Also, it’s why those introductory science courses are known to weed out the weak people- those who are idealistic. I remember feeling that way when I thought I wanted to be a vet. </p>
<p>People generaly just don’t want to go that far because A) They don’t have that kind of drive or passion, B) No money or time (think economic opportunities) or C) it’s too ambitious (and they’ve been disappointed before and don’t want to try again)</p>
<p>“Y’know, I find it really hard to believe that only 8% of people who plan on pursuing higher education in psych would ever go on to fill out a grad program application. Where did that number come from? I can see how acceptance rates could be so low, if people are uneducated about their odds when they apply. But the idea that 92% of people fully intending to be doctors during their junior year will not apply at all is absurd. I really want to know how that number was calculated.”</p>
<p>Well then, i should probably tell you, you wrote an entire paragraph after all. I did a rough guess based on A. the number of people who become doctors and B. what i have seen as the best acceptance rates among graduate schools in my field, which is 50% and C. Anecdotal evidence. Now it is usually the acceptance rates are much lower than that, not just for clinical but for all psychology areas. I figure that people who are meet minimum requirements are applying at several schools which may raise someone’s odds to 50% (it probably isn’t that high though). So i figure half get in, half don’t and about 4% of undergrads do go onto getting doctoral degrees, i have seen statistics for that, just double that 4% and i figured 8% apply. </p>
<p>Is that 8% figure 100% accurate, of course not but i think it is close enough for our discussion (from what i have seen, i am guessing it is lower than that). Even if it is 30% who apply to get into doctoral programs, there are still a ton of people who with in an 12 month period, decide not to go on, even though they once wanted to.</p>
<p>Usually the people who raised their hands are just joining the band-wagon of academia. I think your Professor is putting more weight than he should on the topic of pursuing higher education by asking the class.</p>
<p>Since you mentioned the fact that the very high majority of those people were female, it’s also possible that they would get sidetracked by marriage and children and end up not going on to further education now or sometimes ever.</p>
<p>I wasn’t trying to imply that. But generally, men get more advanced degrees than women do because the women have babies and have to take time off and things like that, and sometimes don’t finish their degrees or take much longer than men to do so. I’m not saying all women do this, I don’t even want children, but I’ve noticed it as a trend. Usually the women are the ones who take time out to raise the children, not men.</p>
<p>sorry JackD, but I don’t see the problem here. </p>
<p>The situation reminds me of the common interview question: “what do you see yourself doing in five years?”. How the heck do I know? I don’t even know the career paths at your blanking company because you hide the information on an intranet.</p>
<p>The truth is that even us “oldsters” found a lot of twists and turns in our careers we never would have expected. We did not expect them because we had no idea certain paths even existed.</p>
<p>Think of a poor undergrad. As one’s education proceeds, it is a constant process of doors closing (because of grades, money, ability etc.), doors opening (see above…) and the discovery of doors leading to places one did not even know existed. FWIW, this is what education is about to some degree.</p>
<p>so what is the problem? what is the REAL question?</p>
<p>To answer the OP’s original question, a lot of them discover other career paths that best suit their interests, abilities and work habits. Or they go home and sponge off parents like me. :)</p>