“going out to restaurants, having parties, and going on family vacations is not cool in March 2020”
You realise this means that many restaurants, hotels and tourist attractions may also bo bakkrupt and close?
Someone is thinking the same things I am thinking about! Even if we assume that everything will be “back to normal” in the fall, in the short term, I think about how will we make a decision if we can’t visit colleges? And even if we can visit, so many colleges are either going to be online for the remainder of the semester or during the entire month of April. It’s like visiting in the summer. What’s the vibe when students are on campus? We have one school that was a late RD add that we had plans to visit at Spring Break. No idea how we will make that decision. That is the last school on her list and one that she is very interested in.
The other thing I think about is the financial hit that we may take in the near future in terms of loss of investments, loss of income, etc. We have some schools on the list that the “net” is much different than others. In normal times, we may have stretched. But it makes me think twice now about committing to a school that is much more costly than another with unprecedented financial times. It’s very uncertain how much financial impact the virus will take.
I do also worry about the tuition dependent schools out there, as someone mentioned above. Ones who are also counting on the income of room/board to make it. If you follow the recent Forbes article on college financial GPA, there are a lot of smaller schools who were already teetering on being in a financial crisis. How will this affect them?
As always, I know we will all figure this out. It is a lot to consider and think about. I appreciate everyone sharing their thoughts as well. It’s helps me to know that I am not the only one with these concerns running around in my head!
The obvious consequences will be fewer applying to distant colleges (especially if they’ve seen siblings or friends struggling to get home in a crisis) and fewer applying to expensive colleges (what’s the point of paying so much when there’s the risk of being forced to take online classes and most people will see their 529s and potentially their income suffer).
That’s a vicious circle for small LACs as it brings into question their entire business model. Look for the current shift in the market to accelerate very dramatically in the next couple of years.
Sadly, I do realize this. The government is already demanding this happen in many European countries, such as Italy and France. I believe it is the hope of many Americans that if we act NOW, we may contain the pandemic and the shutdown can be relatively short-lived. It may be too late. We probably should have started this a week earlier. But it’s worth a shot.
This is going to be absolutely brutal for restaurants, hotels, tourist attractions, gyms, theaters, concert venues, retail stores, dance studios, etc. and for the many people who work at these venues. I am not sure what other ethical choice we have, though. It’s a horrible situation all around.
At the margin, there are likely 2020 students/families that now might have no affordable options for college in the fall…college savings may have been hit hard with the stock market downturn, parent(s) might have lost/will lose their jobs in the coming months, etc…leaving a lot of uncertainty if they can attend one of the schools they have been accepted to.
I hope the move to a June 1 deposit date accelerates…to give students and families more time to figure things out. I do think we will see a relatively higher proportion of 2020s take gap years.
Go to the twitter feed of Accept group to access the list of colleges that have extended the deposit date to June 1…I can’t link to the list as it’s a google doc.
Well said!! I had this EXACT discussion with colleagues the other day.
Last week I was on my campus for one of the many training/help sessions IT put together for faculty making the adjustment to teaching online. Faculty and staff are all concerned about what this disruption means for our small LAC long term. We are not one of the “elites” and have been worried about the impending demographic cliff and enrollment numbers for the last two years or so. Now we also have to confront the effects of COVID-19. As @BookLvr expressed, we would have a difficult time (to say the least) dealing with an extremely reduced revenue.
FWIW, colleges do not relish canceling admissions events. We rely HEAVILY on accepted students days to help make our target enrollment each year. Admissions is extremely concerned about the possibility of needing to cancel those days. Parents and students may be upset, but not as much as those of us who work there!
Perhaps colleges can start live streaming admissions sessions on zoom/skype/facebook page. They could even do this with the talks/sessions they typically have on accepted student days.
Seems that would be a straightforward way to continue reaching out and have ‘touches’ with potential students. Of course it’s not as good as in person sessions, but it’s better than going dark.
I have a D22, and I’m wondering if the PSAT will be affected. She’s been studying for it; maybe she wouldn’t have been a NMF but she’d like a shot at it.
It definitely makes us want to urge her to consider closer, and potentially cheaper, schools. Maybe by the time she goes to college we’ll have a vaccine, or better treatments, or it will have run through the whole population already. But it is making us think about “what if something else major happens while she’s away?” Also, we were planning to cash-flow college and if our income takes a hit we might need her to go to a 2nd-tier public or commute.
S20 has already made his decision (local flagship); we’re now wondering if that housing deposit we just paid is going to end up getting used. He can commute, or do online school from home, if he has to; he was looking forward to living in the dorm, though.
I imagine many other families are thinking through similar things.
This is just my opinion, but I think the difference between starting as a long-distance student and continuing as a long-distance student would be tremendous. Most colleges start with orientation–some even start with pre-orientation programs–which provide a great opportunity to make friends and bond with new people. Students learn about college policies, college academic resources, and beloved campus traditions. There are some schools that have rituals that happen during orientation, with another matching ritual that happens at graduation, bookending the college experience. Many small liberal arts college promote the opportunity to form a close relationship with a faculty advisor beyond just the choosing of courses.
Continuing students already have peers to FaceTime with and work with on group projects. New students have yet to form those bonds and would have to do so online.
Yes, this is a very digital generation, but there is still something to be said for face-to-face peer interactions and there are aspects of that which will arguably be hard to replicate online. In fact, I think one of the main arguments for residential colleges–particularly small liberal arts colleges–is that there is something very special about being part of that close-knit community.
But I get your point: face-to-face orientation can take place in January, if first semester moves online and second semester takes place on campus. It may not be ideal, but it might be the best we can do under the circumstances!
Why might some students disrupt moving on to college under these circumstances? Speaking speculatively, since we have not faced this situation before:
Maybe they want four years of the full college experience.
Maybe they want four years of playing a sport.
Maybe they want four years of performing in plays and musicals.
Maybe their field of study is something like musical theatre, dance, music, art–or laboratory sciences like chemistry–where it is hard to full replicate the experience in one’s home.
Again, I really hope that coronavirus peaks and is dying out waaaaaayyyy before we get to this point. Class of 2020 is already losing admitted students days, and quite possibly prom and graduation, among many other special senior year events.
Seniors who are spring athletes are in all likelihood missing their entire final season.
Dancers and actors and musicians are in all likelihood losing their final shows and concerts.
It’s fine. But it’s not what these students in the Class of 2020 dreamed of when they started high school.
Let’s hope that the Class of 2020 can have a normal transition to freshman year!
My S20 and his HS classmates are discussing this very issue. If this turns into something akin to the Spanish Flu of 1918 that essentially lasted through 2 winter seasons or if it looks like it will continue through the fall 2020, there may be a sizable number of 20s who will prefer to take a gap year, rather than having a diluted freshman college experience of online classes while stuck at home for an indefinite period (especially at private colleges costing $70-80k/yr). He thinks that many 20s will push to start when campuses are open again. If that means starting the following fall, they would prefer that vs starting with online classes.
Not sure colleges would be willing to accommodate a large number of freshmen requesting gap years. If this continues into the summer, what would top private colleges like Williams or Amherst do if half of their entering class requested starting in 2021? Would they force the kids to start w/indefinite online classes or, if not, revoke their admissions? If they let kids take gap years, then 21s would certainly be affected. Uncharted territory for all involved but not too early to discuss and plan for the worst case scenario. S20’s school gives all admitted students until May 1st to request a gap year.
That’s a shame, but you have to think of this as wartime. It’s life or death. Let’s hope there’s a stimulus plan that will mitigate some of the economic damage. Though with the deficit where it is, a safety net for all seems unlikely. Too bad the needless trade debacle with China meant bailing out farmers with a wasteful $28B. That money would come in handy now. So would the tax revenue Trump got rid of.
I doubt many kids will want to do a gap year esp if they have been cooped up at home, my S20 is already bouncing off the walls and it has been 2 days. As I stated above my bet is schools open, maybe on line most likely, dorms open spring semester. A subset of kids really do not have a good idea what college cost now so I doubt there will be a rush to stay in state and make it easier, yes us parents may like that but most 18 year olds do not think like we do. I would be very careful accepting one year merit scholarship or aid grants from schools, I assume colleges will has less cash for merit aid down the line. I would much rather have my kid start his first semester on line vs. having a kid who is in the last semester and has no idea if he will have a graduation and the last 2 months of their senior year.
Also community colleges have a set number of teachers … so I doubt they are setup for this influx of 4 year college kids.
What undoubtedly will happen is that kids will switch routes and attend the safeties that have offered $$. Some of those offers of $$ won’t be honored. Any good publics will have miscalculated their yield. Many families will rethink OOS, any extra costs, any risky options. State funding for unis will be hugely impacted. International students will decline their full pay offers or be declined in the way of $$, visas, immigration. So much of what we are really worried about is superficial. The short term thinking that is ubiquitous is going to be replaced by much graver concerns. The healthy wealthy will be fine.
I do not have twitter can someone post a link for schools that have moved back decision day to June 1. TIA
I wonder if some schools that don’t want to go test optional would be willing to accept PSAT scores. I have a S21 who will no doubt be affected by this.
I have been wondering about this! I have been wondering if more freshman 2020 students will choose the least expensive possibly closer to home option if college campuses are still interrupted. I’ve also wondered if some current campus students who are paying pricy out of state or private options will transfer to state option if they will be working at home on a laptop anyway.
“If this turns into something akin to the Spanish Flu of 1918 that essentially lasted through 2 winter seasons…”
Coronavirus could be with us a while, but it is really tough to compare it to the Spanish Flu. After all, we didn’t have the internet and social media spreading the word in 1918 (so if you wanted to know what was happening, you had to venture out into the community to find out (which meant exposure). They also didn’t have hand sanitzer or disinfecting wipes or online ordering with home delivery. They didn’t shut everything down to encourage social distancing as we have done. Not to mention the medical advances.
I’m all for doing my part to “flatten the curve”. It is important that we all do that. However, it wouldn’t surprise me if, two or three weeks from now there will be a lot of people (those not in a high risk group) screaming, “I can’t take it anymore” (cabin fever). They will be ready to expose themselves - right or wrong - to “get it over with and move on”. For 80% of the population, it will be like the flu at worst, if not milder. I have been impressed by how many Americans have been willing to help out in this crisis, but I also expect a smaller and smaller percentage of them will be willing to accept staying “socially distanced” for too long.
So my bet is on “business as usual” for colleges this fall (perhaps with minor adjustments to policies and facilities). Just my opinion. I do, however, think colleges should extend the May 1 deadlines. Plus, this will affect where kids choose to attend (whether to be closer to home or to less expensive colleges out of financial concerns) and whether in the future they will be as willing to apply ED.
If we still have an active health crisis where people are not congregating/traveling in August, where kids go to college will be the least of our worries. If the health scare is behind us, the depth of financial impact could certainly have lasting impacts.
Class of 21 has had national and state tournaments cancelled that they would have put on their college apps. Do you think admissions would account for this, as long as the student says they qualified?
I’m sure they’ll take everything into account. Pretty much every junior’s ECs are greatly affected by all the closings and cancellations.