What is up with the CC Beta Chance platform - It clearly does not work

I plugged in 35 ACT and GPA 4.00 weighted 4.8 and the odds for Northwestern were listed at just 6%. That is crazy. Anyone else encounter a similar problem?

6% is clearly wrong inasmuch the odds of any random applicant are better than 6% and a 35 on the ACT ranks on in the top 1/4 of admitted kids. Presumably the GPA and ACT scores are somewhat helpful.

I figure the odds are at least 10% and likely closer to 20% for admission, ignoring all other factors.

There is no website or tool that will exactly calculate your chances of getting in.

Last year, the acceptance rate was about 8%. When you account for hooked admits, 6% seems pretty close to the mark. Not sure why you feel this is so wildly off. As you must surely be aware, Northwestern will turn away plenty of students with 4.0 and 35 ACT. They aren’t just looking for those things.

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I agree that there are no accurate online admission probability calculators (unless it’s a school’s own calculator that uses a stats based formula for admissions, like the Iowa publics).

NU has holistic admissions, so they look at much more than just GPA and test scores. Online calculators don’t account for rigor, LoRs, essays, admission round, major, institutional priorities…all of which can be important in the admission decision. Really…these calculators are just a waste of your time.

If you applied to NU ED, you might have a higher than 6% chance of admission. If RD, that could be in the ballpark but who really knows…no one here has visibility to your rigor, AP scores, LoRs, or essays so we can’t chance you.

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I’d say 6% is more accurate than 20% if you’re only considering stats. Applicants are so much more than just numbers.

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Northwestern at 8 percent is arguable, but here’s a few I found with the same stats (35 ACT, 4.00 UW):

BYU: 30%
Minnesota-Twin Cities: 43%
Stony Brook: 43%
Baylor: 43%
South Florida: 43%
Central Florida: 43%
SUNY Buffalo: 55%
Ohio State: 55%
Florida State: 55%
Ohio University: 55%
East Carolina: 68%
Oklahoma: 68%
Tennessee: 68%
Texas Tech: 68%
Appalachian State: 68%
Arkansas: 68%

Et al. All those strike me as far too low.

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This admissions calculator had its own thread…and it was very clear that it was not accurate.

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While none of the calculators are accurate, the one offered here was (is?) laughable.

As posted in the release thread, it showed D22 had an 87% chance at NYU, a 59% chance at Cederville University (SAT avg. ~1200), and it recommended Hendrixville College (it’s in Arkansas) as a very selective CS school for her.

Also posted - “a 6% chance at University of Kentucky but a whopping 87% chance at Penn and Johns Hopkins”

After the initial feedback, I actually thought it was withdrawn. I found a link, but it seems to still be non-functional on an iPad, so I can’t tell if it’s any better.

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We had the same wonky figures. My son had 6 percent chances at lots of schools including UK which was kind of funny since they have a 97 percent acceptance rate.

Here is the chance calculator: Admissions | College Search | College Confidential

So I put in Arizona resident, 4.0 UW GPA, 5.0 W GPA, 36 in all ACT sections and got:

  • 87% for Arizona State University
  • 68% for University of Arizona
  • 82% for Northern Arizona University

Which is odd, since all of the above have stated automatic admission criteria that the above profile matches, so the chances should be 100% (assuming base requirements like high school course subjects are met).

@CCAdminMike is there anyone who can look into this?