What tier of college can I get into?

The tier of the college does not matter. Tiers are contrived. What matters is what you do. Look who produces the most Fulbrights, Rhodes, you name it. It’s not a who’s who of elite schools. It’s a who’s who of Podunk Us. You’re far better off getting a high GPA and being engaged in something additional like research or an engineering club at Podunk U than you are disengaged and a C student at MIT.