We found it very hard to assess youngest kid’s chances. She had the grades, test scores, a couple of sports, nothing outstanding, definitely in the ballpark. The only thing I can think of to explain her good results is maybe her essay, which I did not think was fantastic. We followed the rolling admission safety and a few matches, then a bunch of reaches-for-everyone schools (no Ivys). Looking back, there must have been something about her they liked, just not sure what.