<p>As Rita gains strength many Hollywood whackos and environmentalists like RFK Jr, and the Europeans are getting out their “The US had it coming” signs because of our refusal to sign Kyoto. Too bad they don’t listen to the scientist who know a bit more about hurricanes. Here is a very interesting read: <a href=“http://www.sptimes.com/2005/09/13/Worldandnation/Storm_frenzy_is_not_a.shtml[/url] ”>http://www.sptimes.com/2005/09/13/Worldandnation/Storm_frenzy_is_not_a.shtml</a> ;
Now climatologists say frenzied hurricane seasons will be a fact of life for the next 10 to 20 years, part of a lengthy cycle of stormy eras followed by calmer ones.</p>
<p>The engine driving these cycles is called the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, or AMO. Scientists say it has triggered drought in the western United States while spawning hurricanes in the Atlantic.</p>
<p>At a time when some are theorizing that global warming may be the reason for more intense hurricane seasons, climatologists say the AMO is the real culprit.</p>
<p>“The consensus among hurricane researchers and forecasters is that the hurricane landfalls of 2004 resulted from the AMO, a natural cycle of hurricane activity, combined with a lapse in the incredibly good fortune of the previous 35 years,” Hugh Willoughby, a hurricane researcher at Miami’s Florida International University, wrote in an essay last fall.</p>
<p>“The effect of global warming was at most second order,” he wrote, “and probably not present at all.”
</p>
cheers
September 21, 2005, 6:07pm
2
<p>I have read that the 50’s and 60’s had many more hurricanes…which is why those coasts lagged in development.</p>
<p>In so many way, the past 30 years have been a manna-from-heaven blip in hisotry…</p>
weenie
September 21, 2005, 7:30pm
3
<p>Yeah, I think it is a great idea to just ignore global warming. After all, we’ve proven we cope wonderfully with natural calamities, so “bring 'em on!”</p>
UCLAri
September 21, 2005, 7:37pm
4
<p>No, it’s not a good idea to ignore trends, but the fact is that signing Kyoto would have done nothing to prevent Katrina.</p>
<p>I believe 100% that carbon emissions will in the long run have a serious affect on the earth’s climate, but that doesn’t mean we can just go blaming things on it just out of sheer capriciousness.</p>
<p>1931 still holds the record for most hurricanes in a year.</p>
driver
September 21, 2005, 8:11pm
6
<p>During the late 18th Century George Washington resisted the urge to counter global cooling–the “mini ice age”–that occurred due to a slight shift of the earth’s axis.</p>
<p>It is not that its more hurricanes, its that these are stronger…having 2 cat 5s in such a short time is different</p>
<p>Article didn’t even mention ocean temperatures and the power of the hurricanes, interesting that</p>
<p>Why not? From what I have heard, when the hurricane gets over warm ocean water, it gets stronger</p>
<p>Why doesn’t the article discuss the how many more cat 3,4,5 hurricanes vs cat 1 or 2</p>
<p>that would be a real article, not a fluff piece that doesn’t discuss intensity</p>
<p>Its like saying, well it snowed as many days this year as last, but ignoring that it was several more feet of snow</p>
<p>or that it rained as many days this year as back in the 50s, just that it was only averaging .1 inches as opposed to 3 inches</p>
<p>Read the book about the volcano Kracatoa (sp?)…that one eruption changed the planet</p>
driver
September 21, 2005, 8:25pm
8
<p>Two simple words:
KARL ROVE</p>
Mr.B
September 21, 2005, 8:56pm
9
<p>Here are some other interested reads relating to this topic. I have provided summaries or quotes from the articles.
An increase in the ferocity of hurricanes over the last 35 years may be attributable to global warming. A study, which appears in the Sept. 16 issue of the journal Science, is perhaps one of the strongest scientific statements yet on a connection between hurricane activity and global warming.
<a href=“http://www.healthcentral.com/newsdetail/408/528001.html[/url] ”>http://www.healthcentral.com/newsdetail/408/528001.html</a></p> ;
<p>Bush Administration makes efforts to hide the impact of global warming.
(6/16/05 London Times Online) describes how Philip Cooney, “the former chief of staff to President Bush’s Council on Environmental Quality, was let go after it was revealed that he had deleted and watered down references to global warming.” Don’t worry about him a few days later, was hired by Exxon Mobil.
Christian Science Monitor 6/20/05 reported that the United States exerted pressure to tone down references to global warming in the G-8 statement on climate change. The paper noted: "The documents show that Washington officials: Removed all reference to the fact that climate change is a ‘serious threat to human health and to ecosystems’; Deleted any suggestion that global warming has already started; Expunged any suggestion that human activity was to blame for climate change.
Among the sentences removed was the following: “Unless urgent action is taken, there will be a growing risk of adverse effects on economic development, human health and the natural environment, and of irreversible long-term changes to our climate and oceans.”
An article published in the magazine “Science”: “Co-author Judity Curry of Georgia Tech said the team is confident that the measured increase in sea surface temperatures is associated with global warming, adding that the increase in category 4 and 5 storms “certainly has an element that global warming is contributing to.””</p>
<p><a href=“http://www.sitnews.us/0905Viewpoints/091905_robert_freedland.html[/url][/quote] ”>SitNews - Letter: George W. Bush's "Wager" By Robert J. Freedland
</a></p>
<p>There are lots of articles describing the problem…google: global warming and hurricanes</p>
driver
September 21, 2005, 9:03pm
10
<p>Not sure why, but I took the time to read your first link. Seems awfully tentative, don’t you think?</p>
<p>
Not everyone is convinced by the new findings, however.
“The question is, is [the increase in intensity] real?” said Chris Landsea, a meteorologist with the National Hurricane Center in Miami. “Are we seeing a big increase the last 15 years or is it an artifact of the data? I’m afraid it’s probably not a real change that’s going on.”
Even one of Webster’s co-authors, Greg Holland, director of the Mesoscale and Microscale Meteorology Division of the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colo., hedged his bets a little. “There is a reasonable chance that this is consistent with global change but one can never say for sure with this amount of data,” he said.
All of which reflects the ongoing debate in the scientific community as to whether changes in hurricane tempers are due to natural variability or to the effects of global warming.
</p>
<p>When you consider that weather patterns can be centuries long, there is simply not enough accurate data to say whether this is a trend or a normal cyclic event. You can find serious scientist on both sides. Who’s to say whether 1505 or 1605 or even 1705 had fewer gulf hurricanes. We do know that the Spanish lost an awful lot of ships in the gulf in the 1600s.</p>
<p>Driver, you dislike Karl Rove?!?!?! This is a first coming from you!</p>
driver
September 21, 2005, 9:56pm
13
<p>No, I love the guy. I just figured out how to do the big letters thing and wanted to show off.</p>
cheers
September 22, 2005, 12:09am
14
<p>driver…are you Mrs Rove ???</p>
driver
September 22, 2005, 8:04am
15
<p>Alas…I can only dream…</p>
driver
September 22, 2005, 8:28am
16
<p>Couple of good articles to start your morning off, FF, peripherally related to hurricanes (too lazy to start a new thread). Cautionary note to victims of Bush Derangement Syndrome: These are not for you.</p>
<p>James Pinkerton in Newsday: Even With Fallen Leader, GOP Reigns
<a href=“Newsday | Long Island's & NYC's News Source - Newsday ”>Newsday | Long Island's & NYC's News Source - Newsday ;
<p>Thomas Lifson, former Bush classmate at HBS and recovering Harvard faculty member: Misunderestimated again; Bush and Katrina
<a href=“http://www.americanthinker.com/articles.php?article_id=4838[/url] ”>http://www.americanthinker.com/articles.php?article_id=4838</a></p> ;
UCLAri
September 22, 2005, 8:37am
17
<p>I love how arch-conservatives think the “War on Terror” is the ultimate goal for humanity, and arch-liberals think the “War on Capitalism/Imperialism” is the goal. Both are so delusional to believe that either can be achieved.</p>
<p>I mean, what is the US going to do, get rid of guerrila warfare and then convert its economy to a magic happy utopia?</p>
<p>Oh, American center, why are you always so content with being a quiet voice? WHY?</p>
marite
September 22, 2005, 10:05am
18
<p>Another interesting take on Katrina;
The Harvard School of Public Health (HSPH) last Friday released the results of the only scientific survey so far on the evacuees of Hurricane Katrina, which found that nearly 4 out of 10 people surveyed in Houston shelters had been unable to evacuate.</p>
<p>For the survey, conducted in conjunction with the Kaiser Family Foundation (KFF) and the Washington Post, 680 of approximately 8,000 evacuees in Houston shelters were randomly selected and interviewed.</p>
<p>According to the study, conducted just two weeks after Katrina struck, nearly 4 out of 10 people were either physically unable to evacuate, or needed to care for someone who was unable to leave. A quarter of the people interviewed said they did not hear the evacuation order. Even in retrospect, 42 percent reported that they still could not have found a way to evacuate before the storm hit.
<a href=“http://www.thecrimson.com/article.aspx?ref=508544[/url] ”>http://www.thecrimson.com/article.aspx?ref=508544</a></p> ;
driver
September 22, 2005, 10:13am
19
<p>Good news: According to what I’m hearing this morning, local and state officials are handling the evacuation of Houston and environs in the face of Rita quite well.</p>
Mr.B
September 22, 2005, 10:30am
20
<p>I noticed that the Insurance industry had planned a meeting to discuss the higher costs of the increased damage due to natural disasters, they had to put it off because it was scheduled for New Orleans.</p>
<p>I think the Spanish lost ships because they had no idea of the weather pattern in the Gulf. Driver, I agree that Karl Rove puts out a lot of hot air, but I don’t think he causes hurricanes on his own, nor do I think it is caused by Bush rapidly applying spin to his mistakes of the day.</p>
<p>Is there anyone who thinks that producing as much pollution as we do is good for the planet? We should sign the Kyoto agreement, it would be better to err on the safe side of the equation.</p>