I looked into this a year or two ago, compared the numbers of applicants from the different counties and incorporated cities with the admission rates and the state population. What I found was that basically, HS students from NoVa were far more likely to apply to UVA than students from the rest of the state. For example, if 25% of students at schools elsewhere thought they had enough chance to follow through with an application, you’d see see a corresponding 50% of students from the NoVa schools applying.
The admission rate for NoVa is slightly lower than the overall admission rate. But those are self-selected, NOT randomly sampled, groups.
The upshot is that total NoVa applications almost certainly include many students who (on average) finish much lower in their HS graduating class, and include many who have no real shot at admission. Applications from the rest of the state tend to be more skewed towards students who do have a good shot at admission, with a smaller portion of unrealistic long shot applications.
Virginia residents who take the most challenging courses available and get good grades that put them at or near the top of their class are likely to be admitted. Period. Without regard to where they live in the state.
Many TJ students have an unrealistic view of their intellectual and academic “superiority” over other students. The average TJ student might be better positioned than is the average student at other schools, but the average TJ student is NOT inherently more desirable than top 10% students at other schools. (And top TJ students are not necessarily any better than top students at other schools, either.) They must earn their own admission into colleges, just like everybody else.