Why the Middle East is at war? 1 trillion barrels of oil reserves

Parent Cafe
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<p>I’ve been watching FOX and CNN and other stations as the war in Lebanon occurs and I keep waiting for somebody to get on the air and tell the truth about why there is fighting going on in Lebanon, Iraq, and wherever else things are going to blow up in the Middle East. Why there is always going to be fighting in the Middle East.</p>

<p>It’s too profitable.</p>

<p>There are so many companies that make money with wars. Defense companies, obviously. The people in this industry can barely control themselves when hostilities start.</p>

<p>The real factor though is the 1 trillion barrels of oil. I’m not even talking about who controls it either; although, that is important (obviously). I am just looking at the value of the oil. There isn’t an oil shortage right now. There is more oil in inventory right now than ever in history. Many people who follow the oil industry say there is a $40 premium in the oil price because of the problems in the Middle East. And that is the problem for those of us who aren’t in the oil business. Because $40 times 1 trillion barrels = $40 TRILLION. Oil reserves have increased in value by $40 trillion since around the time the Iraq War started. That’s a lot of money. People will rob, cheat, and kill for a lot less.</p>

<p>So who cares if the US spends over 100 billion a year in Iraq. Who cares if the US gives 3 billion to Israel and lesser amounts to Egypt, Jordan, the Palestinians. That’s chump change. </p>

<p>Look at the big picture.</p>

<p>$40 trillion.</p>

<p>I believe the net worth of the US is smaller than $40 trillion.</p>

<p>$40 trillion</p>

<p>Peace isn’t going to happen.</p>

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<p>Did you have a team of wise monkeys working around the clock to figure that out? Orinoco tar sands and Athabasca have 3X of that measly trillion barrels. Why not attack Venezuela, or tap Athabasca instead? Oh, by the way, the oil doesn’t exactly leap out of the earth into neat little 55 gallon drums. You kind of have to … invest money, construct rigs, pay workers, etc etc etc etc to get it. The Middle East is volatile. Oil industry would prefer not to say, get shot at or be beheaded while trying to ‘steal’ the ME oil. Peace=good for business. But don’t let facts convince you otherwise.</p>

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<p>I’m trying to be conservative with the oil reserve numbers. I’m arguing there isn’t a shortage of oil. If we use your 3 trillion barrel number there is even less of a shortage.</p>

<p>I know it costs money to get the oil out of the ground. It’s going up in Saudi Arabia. What is it now, $2 a barrel to get it out of the ground in Saudi Arabia?
Anyway, that doesn’t change my numbers or my point.</p>

<p>The world is using about 27 billion barrels of oil this year.</p>

<p>Prices are up about $40 a barrel pre- Iraq war to now.</p>

<p>If prices average the added $40 a barrel for the whole year that’s an additional 1+ trillion dollars in oil revenues.</p>

<p>Saudi Arabia has about 250 billion in oil reserves. </p>

<p>$40 times 250 billion = $10 trillion. The value of their reserves have increased $10 trillion since the war.</p>

<p>Iran has around 125 million in reserves.</p>

<p>$40 times 125 million = $5 trillion. The value of their reserves have increased $5 trillion since the war. </p>

<p>Since we declared Iran part of the axis of evil we really hurt their pocketbook.</p>

<p>How many barrels of oil does Saudi Arabia pump out of the ground a day? I forget. It’s around 9 million?</p>

<p>9 million times 365 times the extra $40 = an additional $131,400,000,000 a year for Saudi Arabia.</p>

<p>I’ll let you figure out the numbers for Iran. </p>

<p>Peace = good business.</p>

<p>War is better business.</p>

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<p>Read the old testament for a primer on the reasons</p>

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<p>1) I’d really love to know where you attain your 1 trillion barrel figure. Because from the most optimistic sources (CERA, EIA, IEA, BP), the entire Middle East has about 650 billion barrels. Sure, that’s only 1/3 off and doesn’t include possible reserves. But what you seem to be forgetting is that in the mid '80’s, OPEC came out with this crazy new rule that stipulated each member nation could only produce the amount of oil in proportion to its ‘proven’ reserves. </p>

<p>Now a little background on OPEC: it’s a cartel designed to make sure that production isn’t too high or too low to provide a comfortable market for all. The downside to it’s power is that they’ve chosen not to open their fields to third party audits to attain another opinion of the reserves (reserve identification is not an exact science; very complicated and disasterously wrong sometimes).</p>

<p>What this all means is that they never prove their reserves. They say what they want them to be and voila, everyone believes them. Back in the '80’s with the new ruling, Middle East members of OPEC raised their reserves simply by saying so thus allowing them to increase production and gain more money. But these new increases came literally overnight and without the announcement of any new fields (which even OPEC does). 350 BILLION barrels of oil is not real unless you think you can covert the ink on paper into gasoline. </p>

<p>2) But the issue with the war is not Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, or Saudi Arabia. It’s Israel, Lebanon, and Syria. True Iran is involved, but Israel can’t invade and occupy their land, much less their oil fields. How much oil is in Lebanon? A whopping zero barrels of reserves (OOIP). Now what’s zero times $40? Please tell me a few trillion! :)</p>

<p>3) And who is telling you about the $40 premium? First it was $5, then 10, then 15, then I heard Forbes saying 20-25 without any increases in price or supply! Now $40? </p>

<p>4) And Saudi Aramco was producing 9.5 million barrels per day a couple months ago but have dropped production to just over 9 mpd due to a slow down in demand for heavy oil in the summer. </p>

<p>5)

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<p>That’s not how it works. You don’t say what you want to be produced and then voila it’s produced. A shortage generally means that supply can’t meet demand. All of the oil sands and Orincon oil is extremely heavy and does not have high production rates. This applies to much of the world’s proven reserves (1.2 trillion barrels according to BP). Nearly all of the unproven is heavy and sour as well. There is plenty of oil, but the oil that is left has much much lower rates of production. </p>

<p>5) The world uses almost 31 billion barrels a year. 27 billion barrels a year is about 73 mpd which was achieved in 2000.</p>

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<p>I’d agree dstark, except that dadx has a point about the Old Testament. Israel and Babylon (Iraq) are the two bloodiest patches of ground on the earth. They were bloody for thousands of years before the engine was invented.</p>

<p>The importance of oil will fade away with newer technologies but peace in the Middle East may be elusive.</p>

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<p>Instead of thinking about the problems in the middle east in biblical terms, what would happen to oil prices if peace broke out?</p>

<p>What is the GDP of Iran and Saudi Arabia with $70 oil? What is the GDP of Iran and Saudi Arabia with $30 oil?</p>

<p>Israel, Lebanon, Syria, and the Palestinians are just pawns. </p>

<p>Mekrob, my numbers are estimates. Use your own numbers.</p>

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<p>The oilmen of Texas and Iran and Saudi Arabia - blood brothers - are rubbing their hands together in glee, and doing the happy dance. </p>

<p>What about Clinton?</p>

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<p>Have you even been to the Middle East? Or any oil field? I’m pretty sure that you’ve never been to the oil fields especially in the Middle East and, with extensive knowledge of oil formation in the largely sandstone structures, had access to detail, up-to-date data and surveys of the Saudi, Kuwaiti, Iranian, and Iraqi oil fields. Only then could you have estimates of their potential. Otherwise, you are simply pulling numbers out of thin air.</p>

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<p>Very little. Only a few dollars per barrel is actually due to fears. The rest is due to actual supply and demand. Demand is going through the roof even with high prices. Even with peace in the Middle East, there simply aren’t enough major oil fields from which to bring needed production to offset declines elsewhere and keep up with demand increases. </p>

<p>In the short term, the prices would drop a good bit as investment would be posible in Iraq which would bring on some new fields and fears would be rested (some of them). But after the intial short term, it’s up, up, up for oil anyway you cut it. The new supplies from Iraq would be eaten up within a year or two.</p>

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<p>“I know it costs money to get the oil out of the ground. It’s going up in Saudi Arabia. What is it now, $2 a barrel to get it out of the ground in Saudi Arabia?”</p>

<p>You are just a bit underestimating it.</p>

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<p>For people with political axes to grind, actual facts are irrevelant. Our job here is done Mekrob.</p>

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<p>good, gas prices should be cheaper shortly.</p>

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<p>Oil is not the cause of the conflict in the middle east. Religion is the cause. Muslims are not interested in having any non-muslims anywhere near them; especially if the non-muslims took “their” land. Tolerance of other religions is not the muslim way. It’s not like this is new, however – many a European war was fought because “my religion is better than yours and you should die if you don’t agree.” </p>

<p>Oil is the reason the arabs, etc. can fight. It is what they trade to buy their weapons. If Iran did not have oil, it would be just another third-world county with starving people selling trinkets to tourists.</p>

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<p>Mekrob, are you honestly suggesting that the increase in oil prices, the per barrel prices which have doubled, is the result of nothing more than sheer supply and demand?</p>

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<p>Mostly. Go back 3 years ago, or even one year ago, we had spare capacity. What do we have now? Nothing but words from Aramco and actions that go against those words and promises. Oil production simply hasn’t increased for the past year, even when the hurricanes and turmoil are factored in.</p>

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<p>Religion may be manipulated to be the ostensible reason for the conflicts, but I don’t buy it. It’s sure not why we’re there. There’s always a political reason underlying whatever is presented as the truth, and the political reason is usually connected to someone’s profits.</p>

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<p>“Oil is not the cause of the conflict in the middle east. Religion is the cause. Muslims are not interested in having any non-muslims anywhere near them; especially if the non-muslims took “their” land. Tolerance of other religions is not the muslim way. It’s not like this is new, however – many a European war was fought because “my religion is better than yours and you should die if you don’t agree.””</p>

<p>In the same vein, people of the Judeo-Christian faith are also not interested in having any non-Christians/Jews anywhere near them; especially if the non-Christians/Jews took “their” land (read: Jerusalem). Tolerance of other religions is not the Christian way. It’s not like this is new, however – many a European war was fought because “my religion is better than yours and you should die if you don’t agree.”</p>

<p>Don’t be so blindsided by your beliefs. I say this all as a Christian - remember Matthew 7:5: “Thou hypocrite, first cast out the beam out of thine own eye; and then shalt thou see clearly to cast out the mote out of thy brother’s eye.” The Muslims are not the only ones guilty of intolerance. One only needs to look back further into history - particularly the Crusades - to see full evidence of Christian intolerance. MANY a war was fought in the Middle East in medieval times because Christians felt that “killing an infidel is not murder. It is the pathway to heaven.” Ironically enough, the Muslims are probably now saying the same thing. </p>

<p>I agree that religion is the root cause. However oil doesn’t help - one debate resolution put it best: “Oil is the new religion of the crusades.”</p>

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<p>

If you look at events over the past 1000 years you are right. The problem is that Christians and most religions have gotten over violance against people who are not of their religion. The modern day USA is a good example. Muslims, however, have not adopted a tolerant attitude. If you look at places where Muslims are present in large number along with other religions there is almost always violence caused by Muslims becuase they don’t think God wants non-Muslims to exits. One of my favorite Muslim stories is when the Miss World beauty pageant had to leave Nigera because of riots leaving 100 people dead. So much for the religion of peace.</p>

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<p>Does anyone really believe the long running conflict between the Shi ites and the Sunnis is about oil? Between the Israelis and Palestinians?</p>

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<p>Gospel from Tidewater</p>

<p>Of course, ideology gets in the way of the message (read facts) sometimes.</p>