<p>I’ve gathered through looking at CC threads and others that admissions were particularly difficult this year (HS Class of 2009) due to the competitive applicant pool. Likewise, I’ve heard from different people that for Class of 2010, admissions will peak and be more difficult or start to tone down as there are fewer people applying since the demographics are dying down (baby boomers). So which one is it? Will it be harder or [slightly] easier? Your opinions?</p>
<p>I’ve heard that this year (2009) was the peak, but I can’t imagine that even if it is easier for the Class of 2010, that it will be THAT much easier.</p>
<p>Easier, according to statistics! But I personally find this “peak year soOOooOO difficult baby boom echo” stuff a little bit hokey.</p>
<p>U.S. population numbers are only a tiny part of the equation for how hard it is to get into Yale. Next year’s cohort of domestic high-school graduates may be a little smaller than this year’s (by significantly less than 1%). But the historical trends are that more U.S. high school graduates are applying to colleges, more of them are applying to the top-rated colleges, private and public, they are filing more applications per capita, and more foreign students are applying to U.S. colleges, especially top-rated ones. Over the past few years, U.S. high school graduates have increased about 2%, and Yale applications have increased about 25%. Knocking down the number of U.S. high school graduates a bit (and moving their center of gravity closer to Stanford) may mean that Yale applications increase 8% rather than 9%, but not that they will go down.</p>
<p>Two things may make Yale applications less competitive: A continuation of the global recession, which would probably radically limit the number of foreign full-pay applicants, and somewhat limit U.S. applicants. And construction of the two new residential colleges, which would expand Yale’s class size by 20% and increase the admission rate until applications increase by another 20% or so from here.</p>
<p>The rapid increase in the number of applications per student was due to the move to electronic applications and, in particular, the Common Application. The current trendline will not continue indefinitely and, with such a large penetration of the CA within top schools (it was 8 out of ten for my daughter), may soon plateau.</p>
<p>In the Dark Ages when we had to use typewriters and write separate essays for each school I applied to 4 universities. That was a pretty normal number. While those problems have been largely reduced, most universities will probably continue to request some form of supplement. That, plus $100 or so per school for app fees and scores, will put a practical limit on the number of applications by a typical student.</p>
<p>^ I’m thinking about applying to only 4. Anyway, the peak year will still resonate in 2010 and Yale will always be super competitive because of the reasons written above and it’s YALE!</p>
<p>I heard the peak year was this year, 2009, but either way, it doesn’t really change the fact that the top-tier schools are still extremely hard to get into…</p>
<p>as a junior who has attended two schools in different areas of the country (and knows plenty of other class of 2010’s) i can really (and probably statistically and generally true) that the class of 2010 is larger (maybe not nationally) and definitely more competitive.</p>
<p>^Agreed. At my school the junior class has WAYYY more ppl than the others.</p>
<p>and at my school, the class of 2009 was larger/more competitive than the class of 2010. looks like we have a paradox.</p>
<p>my sarcasm aside, going off of the numbers of your high school is extremely (EXTREMELY!!) stupid considering population density varies by city/state/region/etc. Even schools within your area could show disparities between the sizes of their classes relative to others. Go with statistical population data based on the most recent consensus, which will show that the class of 2009 (nationally) was larger than the class of 2010. Its all pretty irrelevant though because you’re not going to get into Yale based on a slightly smaller applicant pool. Sure, your odds might go up half a percent, but in the scheme of things, if you’re unqualified, then you will not be accepted (unless of course your parents are wealthy and you want to donate the state of New Jersey to Jeffrey Brenzel.)</p>
<p>yeah, at my school, our junior class is already smaller than our senior class (i say already because we have a large number of dropouts), so dont think your school can speak for the nation.</p>
<p>Class sizes are about the same in our school but I think 2009 had more competitive applicants. not sure why. But that’s just at my school.</p>
<p>In my opinion, a continuation of the global recession will only increase the number of applications to Yale.</p>
<p>Yale and the other Ivies are famous for their extremely generous financial aid, and in these hard economic times, people are more willing to at least apply to the Ivies in hopes of getting accepted to a school with great finaid packages. Of course the application fees are obscenely high, but most applicants and parents probably think that paying $65-$75 dollars now is worth the chance of saving tens of thousands of dollars over the course of the next 4 years.</p>
<p>In fact, I personally believe the recession is a huge part of the reason the number of applicants this year was so astronomically high.</p>
<p>siemprecuriosa: At least in my area, NO ONE knows that the Ivies have extremely generous financial aid. About a dozen people asked me how on earth I would be able to pay for Yale. </p>
<p>I think the recession probably pushed a lot of middle-class kids to apply to Yale, but probably turned the lower-class kids away. When you’re on the brink of losing your house, $75 (multiplied by 8 Ivies = $560) is a lot of money, regardless of the ~10% chance you’ll pay less for college.</p>
<p>Good analysis JHS, but I will point out that construction of the new residential colleges is on hold for now, so odds are they won’t be ready in time to increase the size of the class of 2014.</p>
<p>I think siemprecuriosa has a very good point. While people who are applying “just for hell of it” may go down due to financial reasons, qualified applicants could increase, especially if Yale begins aggressively advertising their financial aid (which is really the question here, because Yale’s lost a lot of money as well). Regardless, even if the total number of applicants drops, that doesn’t necessarily mean that the total number of applicants who are in the running also drops.</p>
<p>I agree that many people don’t know about the Ivies’ generous finaid, but I wouldn’t say that NO ONE does. The finaid is basically the only reason my parents let me apply, and the only reason they were willing to pay 4 Ivy application fees + multiple test registrations + sending those test scores to 4 colleges.</p>
<p>Anyone who does even minimal research will find that the Ivies have unusually generous financial aid, and I maintain that that was (and will continue to be) one of the factors that contributes to the huge applicant pools.</p>
<p>so if we take away the applicants who are applying “just for the hell of it”, and others who don’t even have a chance…what would you say is the acceptance rate of a “normal” applicant? By normal, I mean, competitive enough to be indistinguishable from others??
like…2200+ SAT, high class rank, 3.9+GPA, lots of leadership, clubs, volunteering, maybe sports, maybe competitions/research/debate qualifications etc. + good essays/recs.
Out of these competitive applicants, what do you think is the acceptance rate? 20-45% ?</p>
<p>I’d think it increase quite a bit, but how much we can never truly know. Don’t let CC warp your sense of reality too much.</p>
<p>i doubt itd change significantly.</p>
<p>i mean, in any case, people who will get in one year will probably get in the next. the only people who might be affected are some bubble people, so like well ever know.</p>
<p>id say though that therell probably be more applicants, so it might get a little harder, but not significantly.</p>