Will AI Automate Most White-Collar Jobs?

Hi everybody–I spend my days fighting AI in academia, and so I thought I’d get your opinions if you are interested. @shawbridge said on the retirement thread that he thought AI would replace white-collar jobs (unless you are an automator rather than an automatee). I have great respect for him and his contributions, but I can’t imagine that we have enough available energy to power the AI output to do this. It seems to me that it would be so expensive that humans would often be a cheaper option! What do you think? Any thoughts about AI welcome.

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Career public school educator here. I don’t think teachers will be replaced with AI. BUT there are some things that AI can be used for to streamline things like form letters, etc, and getting information (which will need to be verified…AI isn’t always right).

Engineer husband says he can’t see AI going to job sites for inspections, and input from clients. But again…AI might be used to streamline some things needed.

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It’s a disruptive technology, but that’s nothing new at all in history. Disruptions lead to a shift in labor demand, and eventually the market settles back down.

You can see the effect/trend when you consider past labor disruptions, e.g. the first manufacturing assembly line and now automated assembly lines. Word processors replacing typewriters which themselves replaced handwriting. Email reducing postal mail. Cars replacing carriages. eBooks and bookstores. Heck, even electric power tools.

This is not to minimize the pain on an individual basis as people’s skill sets become obsolete. But historically over the long term, elimination of one specific type of labor shifts or creates new demand for other types of labor.

That aside, I work in tech and more specifically have been selling AI-centric products for a couple years. It’s still very, very, very early days to talk about AI replaced jobs wholesale. The tech is exciting but still very immature.

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I tend to think that it will take duties away and jobs types will change but we’ve heard the same thing millions of times - and yet people are still employed. It’s just that roles have transitioned to different roles over time.

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About 10 years ago, many predicted that cashiers and accountants would be extinct, yet today both occupations are in high demand. Tough to predict the effects of AI on professions in the future.

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Any technology can eliminate some jobs and create other jobs.

From the labor point of view, important questions include:

  • Are the new jobs as more or less numerous than the old jobs? Are they in similar locations? Are they of better or worse quality (pay, benefits, work environment)?
  • How accessible are the new jobs, particularly to those losing the old jobs? Jobs that require an extensive or expensive amount of education and training tend to be less accessible.
  • Does the labor market become more or less competitive between employers?

Of course, people who sell their labor also buy goods and services. From that point of view:

  • Do goods and services become more or less expensive?
  • Do goods and services become higher or lower quality?
  • Does the market become more or less competitive between those selling goods and services?
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The history of new technologies tells us that yes some jobs will be replaced. But many more will be created as a result of the new technology.

Cars put a lot of people out of a job. But also ushered in a whole new way to live in suburbs, travel, etc.

Technology change is constant and unstoppable. It has always created a bigger pie.

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The example of cars reminds me of how the Jetsons (show) depicted the future. There were no poor people–everybody got their own bubble car. I think in some ways, tech progress creates a bigger pie–for instance, with indoor air conditioning. But those (many) without it are worse off than they would have been without the invention, aren’t they? Here’s a chunk from Wikipedia:
“George Jetson’s work week consists of an hour a day, two days a week.[13] His boss is Cosmo Spacely, the bombastic owner of Spacely Space Sprockets. Spacely has a competitor, Mr. Cogswell, owner of the rival company Cogswell Cogs (sometimes known as Cogswell’s Cosmic Cogs). Jetson commutes to work in an aerocar with a transparent bubble top. Daily life is leisurely, assisted by numerous labor-saving devices, which occasionally break down with humorous results.”

I don’t believe AI will automate “most” white collar jobs. When I worked in manufacturing, it was thought that robots would automate most blue collar jobs. That didn’t happen. Yes, some jobs were lost due to automation, but not most. I think that there is an anti worker mindset among some high level managers - they think that people are problematic, and that all of the headaches caused by having human employees can be solved by substituting technology for people. It hasn’t been possible to replace everyone with a computer or robot, and I don’t think it will be (at least not for a very long time …).

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White collar. Depends. Administration yes. I use AI for medical charting and I am an advisor to a company. No need for transcriptionist. As AI agents improve, front office letters for work release, referrals letters will be automated all based on the doctors note. All billing will be sent and coded and calls for reimbursement. The AI just reads the note.

So we just eliminated a front office position, coder /biller and medical assistant.

I think some analysts work can be at some point. Things like accounting, data analytics and such.

I think right now using the AI as an assistant and for better efficiency and time savings is key. Reduction of repetitive tasks.

Once that gets better perfected, analyzing how to incresse cost saving by reducing staff will be further explored.

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It wasn’t ebooks but a certain on-line giant that put a lot of bookstores out of business. The good news is that Barnes and Noble is now opening new stores and independent bookstores are also thriving.

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I just happened to read this today: AI is no good, and we should stop using it | Opinion.

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Regarding AI replacing most lawyers… who will license it to practice and what about malpractice insurance? :wink:

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It’s important to indicated the time scale. Are we talking about in the next 2 years, the next 20 years, or the next 200 years? At the present state, AI is nowhere near automating the majority of white collar jobs and won’t be for any time in near future. At present state, AI can be a useful tool to assist in a limited portion of activities, when in the hands of a skilled AI user. However, this assistance in tasks is generally not what I’d describe as “automation.”

For example, one might think one of the first jobs AI would replace is translators, yet this hasn’t really happened. AI understands the basic rules of translation, but struggles with nuances in meaning/tone, context, slang, sensitivity/appropriateness, etc. Good human translators do a better job. When someone hires a translator, it’s usually for something where translation accuracy is important, and most persons hiring translators don’t want to take the risk of AI doing their usual subpar job. Where AI often becomes more useful is when quantity is more important than quality. If you need to translate, sort, and review mountains of text; AI could do that much faster than humans. AI can make some types of high volume tasks affordable and/or possible that were not practical in the past, when in the hands of skilled user, programmer, and debugger.

It’s a similar idea for more complex tasks. AI can be programmed to complete many types of tasks, but it’s usually either subpar quality or limited scope. This limits what portion of white collar jobs AI can replace, as well as increases the portion new white collar jobs AI creates. I’m sure AI will improve over time, but I suspect it’s going to be more along the lines of self-driving cars… tech companies keep pouring money in and claim to be only a few years away from something big, decade after decade, but rarely lives up to hype.

I work in a tech field that involves designing, simulating, and debugging systems; as well as responding to customer needs and expectations. I have not seen any visible use of AI in such activities. However, we do regularly use computer tools to assist with calculation, simulation, synthesis, etc. These tools allow us to be far more productive than would be possible in previous decades, where fewer computer tools were available. I would not be surprised if AI forms a similar type of role during the time I am working in the field… allowing us to be more productive, rather than fully automating/replacing typical engineers.

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Absolutely agree. To quote a popular movie, “just because we can, doesn’t mean we should.” Also, can we stop using the word “intelligence”? This has nothing to do with intelligence (thankfully), but the word makes people think they are getting something they are not.

Maybe AI can write blather about the fires in California, or the hurricane drowned counties after Helene, and take some responsibility for the steady increase in global warming, it is contributing to.

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Check this out! He created a bot which sent out resumes and responses while he slept!
Man who used AI to apply to 1,000 jobs while he was sleeping wakes up to shocking results

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As @Data10 points out, it depends on the time frame. My instinct on this is that the tech people always dramatically overestimate the speed of adoption of a technology and typically underestimate the breadth of diffusion of the technology. I think over a reasonable time frame lots of jobs would go – many are already going. Other jobs will be created.

The first tasks to go are administrative as @knowstuff points out. Compliance. Digital rights management. But also low level creative jobs like graphic design and copywriting. Also, visual pattern recognition: Much of radiology is going, as far as I understand it. With regard to lawyers, document search and document summary are better done by AI. This has been and will lead to the elimination of junior lawyers’ tjobs. I think this raises a number of issues. If a profession uses an apprentice model for training, how will the profession create new senior lawyers.

But, over time, AI will climb up the complexity ladder. I recently saw a demo of a system to do low level procurement strategic sourcing, matching vendors to opportunities and even including low level negotiations.

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I view it as a boost to productivity. There’s been a steady increase in productivity since the industrial age or even earlier, and that has lead to a growth in overall wealth rather than a reduction.

Taking your example of lawyers, you could examine productivity gains going back in time. Did the internet kill the market for junior lawyers since they could start looking stuff up online instead of physically digging through books? What about computers, telephones, cars? The broader effects of those technologies throughout society created increased demand for lawyers consistent with their gains in productivity.

This could just be wishful thinking on my part, but going off historical trends I don’t think there’ll be any dramatic collapse in overall labor demand due to AI, but there certainly will be some shifts.

@anomander, figuring out the magnitudes of job destruction versus new job creation is beyond my skill set. But, I think lots of jobs will change but we will need fewer of some categories of jobs. We will probably, to continue with the legal example, need fewer junior lawyers to perform the same work they are now doing. Will law firms add new clients to fill out their time (e.g., to take advantage of greater productivity or will they add new categories of work that these lawyers can do? Or will those jobs just be eliminated (or more likely not hired into in subsequent years) and the lawyers who would have been hired will have to find a way to be productive elsewhere in the economy?

If procurement AI can reduce the amount of human input from strategic sourcing, can identify the best vendors for new requests, and can negotiate simple deals, a smaller number of workers can do the same jobs (the effect of productivity enhancement), what will the other strategic sourcing and procurement workers do? Hopefully this creates opportunities for new kinds of jobs and these workers can do those jobs.

Does this mean companies will make more money because of higher productivity or will any gains be competed away?

I think this change is much bigger and more dramatic than the advent of the internetm which is saying a lot.

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While it is true historically that we have adapted to technology advances with steady growth and opportunity over time, this new entrant barges into the widening divide between the haves and have nots with the few positioned to benefit against a mass of those displaced potentially faster than our economy can absorb them meaningfully. This disruption may not be as smooth as in the past with AI and automation quickly disenfranchising an entire population and spawning an unsustainably growing underclass. This is a scenario our military is watching and studying carefully as we know what happens when people who are left out have nothing to lose.

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