Will grade deflation at current high-rank university hurt my chances?

Hi guys, I’m a hopeful (though the more time I spend on cc the more that hope declines) 2016 transfer applicant from Hopkins to Penn and Columbia, though Penn is my dream. I’m going to apply to transfer in as a junior. The more time I spend reading old transfer posts, the more I realize that to have any chance of getting in, really strong grades are a must (straight A’s, near 4.0 GPA). Unfortunately, my Hopkins GPA from the first year is a bit on a low side, as I have a 3.51 (a mix of A’s and B’s in first year). I’m working like mad this semester to try to raise it, but I’m afraid that I won’t be able to get it a lot higher than this, as I’m taking a lot of difficult classes this semester.

Anyway, I just wanted to get your opinion on how much do you think this GPA will hurt me when applying to transfer, provided that my essays/recs are strong? AND will the fact that Hopkins is notorious for grade deflation help in any way? I’m on Dean’s List from both semesters of freshman year, and will likely remain on Dean’s List this semester, too.

I’m also involved in community service, a career-related club, and a major-related club at my uni, and an online national publication.

Also, I don’t know how much this matters in transfer admissions, but just in case it does:
SAT: 2210
High School GPA: 4.69

Also, will it help that I’m transferring from a similarly-ranked university?

bump?