I think you are talking about something different. Many people on this board talk about yield management.
If someone is a 4.0, 1600 SAT and an overall great profile, why are they applying EA or RD to Case Western or Miami, etc. Some think they might get turned down or deferred because the school assumes they applied ED elsewhere and doesn’t want to accept them only to have them not attend.
But not everyone applies ED. Their parents don’t allow it or they don’t want to be bound.
I get the deferral part in this case - a school defers hoping if someone got in somewhere ED, they’d then withdraw and not hurt the yield. At the same time, the school would lose an applicant for their #s.
But personally I don’t think applying ED somewhere hurts you anywhere else (except for that you can only have one ED at a time and thus other schools in EA or RD might have a lesser chance than that schools ED program).
Basically, I think you are overthinking.