Great article!! We are from New England and agree with the sentiment. But I wish the article wasn’t released now during applications 
Wondering why you think the timing is a problem - if you agree with the article
I don’t think this is breaking news to anyone - especially given the steadily rising application numbers and falling acceptance rates at the popular southern U’s. There was a similar article posted not too long ago on CC, which also threatened to descend into a political black hole. The reasons for choosing haven’t changed - scholarship offerings, weather, sports, school culture and yes, academics. And a major benefit that students often don’t realize or take advantage of until after they graduate - the strong alumni networks at many of the large southern U’s.
The (mostly) political reasons for not choosing also haven’t changed.
The “Ivy or Bust” mentality will always remain for certain applicants but as we continue to uncover the questionable decision-making and leadership at certain Ivy’s, I think we’ll see more and more applicants realizing that they can achieve success elsewhere and find safe learning environments that don’t support hate speech.
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— Lisa Simpson
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I just want to note again that while the WSJ framed this as an Ivies versus Southern Publics sort of thing, the data I am aware of suggests that BOTH of those sorts of colleges have experienced a large increase in applications over the relevant time frames.
For example, the specific time frames they primarily cite are 2002 to 2022 overall, then also 2020 to 2022 specifically, where these trends seemed to further accelerate.
OK, so it happens Yale has handy statistics going way back, so I will use them.
In 2002, Yale had 15466 applicants, and an admit rate of 13.0%. Yield rate was 64.7%.
In 2020, that was up to 35220 applicants, 6.5% admit rate. Yield rate is not really comparable for that year due to COVID.
Then in 2022, that was up to 50060 applicants, 4.6% admit rate, 67.9% yield rate.
The WSJ time period does not go this far, but according to Yale’s latest release, in the just-completed cycle, that was up to 57517 applicants, 3.9% admit rate, looks like about a 69.3% yield rate.
OK, so obviously there is no particular evidence here that as various Sun Belt publics are becoming more popular with kids growing up in other regions, that is coming at the cost of Yale specifically becoming less popular. Indeed, just the opposite, all the evidence I have seen suggests Yale has been getting more popular too, with the same sort of acceleration post-COVID.
I mentioned Pitt before, so I think it might be worth looking at them too.
In 2002, Pitt (Main) appears to have gotten 15888 applications, admit rate was 54.8%, yield 35.9%.
2020, it was up to 32549 applications, but the admit rate actually went up to 63.9%. Again yield rates from 2020 specifically are not usable, but the prior cycle the yield rate was down to 22.1%, and Pitt was likely expecting something like that for most of time when it was admitting for fall of 2020.
Anyway, I would interpret this dynamic as Pitt broadening its appeal, so applications were driven up by more interested students outside of Western PA (trust me that the local college-bound population had not grown like that), but as a result Pitt was more often facing more direct competition with other desirable colleges for its admitted students.
OK, then 2022, it was up to 53072 applications, admit rate was down to 49.1%, but yield was down further to 16.9%. Again, I think Pitt has continued to attract more applications from non-local submarkets, but that competition is in fact fierce.
Finally, last CDS (so two cycles back now, although reportedly the last cycle’s applications further increased), 58416 applications, admit rate back up a bit to 49.7%, yield down to 15.7%.
OK, so, on the one hand there is this continuing trend of more kids applying to Pitt. On the other, Pitt’s yield is declining. Again, I think in this case you are starting to see more the effects of increasing OOS competition in the yield rates, but it is being compensated for by a rise in applications. So, not so much that Pitt is getting less popular, more just that it is increasingly participating in the sorts of submarkets where kids apply to a lot of competitive colleges.
OK, so if not Pitt, and definitely not Yale, who actually is losing out on net? Well, again, I linked that article before about PA, and it is very clear the net losers in PA are more the regional/local colleges.
So that final bit is a repeat, but all the rest of this is “new”, and hopefully helps underscore that one has to be careful about making too many assumptions about subsets of colleges within a region based on overall regional statistics. Because all this is very complicated, and within any given region, sufficiently different subsets of colleges are likely experiencing very different dynamics.
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I agree. I also don’t think there is a lot of overlap (I’m sure there is some) between students applying to the University of South Carolina/Ole Miss/Alabama and Yale (or any other Ivy for that matter). While Southern schools might be more popular with kids from the Northeast than they were before (although the data you listed above suggests that it isn’t an enormous shift as is implied in the article) I doubt that it is due to the competitiveness of Yale/Harvard etc. The kids I know personally who have gone to the South have been solid students looking for a change - often attracted by the social scene, big football etc. (and of course, the nice weather). Others like the cost and, for some kids, the generous merit available. I don’t, personally, know anyone who was choosing these schools because of politics.
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Good luck to all.
EDIT: Good luck y’all.
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Just anecdotally, the Valedictorian of a local high school was committed to South Carolina Honors College as an OOS student, but the got off an Ivy wait list. So, I think there are some applicants who overlap. However, I think that Ivies and big southern schools offer a very different experience, so generally are not likely to appeal to the same students.
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I’m not saying “no” overlap, just that I don’t think fear of getting locked out of the Ivies is a key motivator.
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What I’ve observed is that kids who are on the bubble for their own state flagship (Michigan, Maryland, U Mass, UIUC for example) which are increasingly competitive especially in some majors (looking at you, CS) have a HUGE incentive (not talking financial, more like parental pressure, social acceptance, etc. to find a “less well known” option (which is more social, athletic, etc.) than one of the directional state U’s. Back when we were in college, the “not flagship” option was perfectly respectable, especially for First Gen kids who lived at home and took the bus to college. I knew several kids in HS who did this.
These aren’t the kids opting for fill in the blank Southern school over Princeton. They aren’t candidates for Princeton. But commute to Towson or U Maryland Baltimore’s campus? That’s the last resort.
The really wealthy ones are looking overseas- UK. But the application statistics don’t suggest that droves of kids are swarming U Alabama because there aren’t enough parties at Harvard.
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There are also lots of private counselors pointing out the value of geographic diversity when building a list.
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There is, and has been, a good bit of overlap between Ivy League schools and some Southern flagship honors colleges.
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No different than any other region.
And most kids can find strong academics if they put in the interest no matter where they go.
And there’s plenty of kids at top schools seeking the east classes, professors, etc.
So not sure I agree with your statement per se.
Just because Ole Miss doesn’t have the rank or selectivity of UGA or Ohio State doesn’t make it an inferior school or that it provides an inferior education.
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I think this same article has been published the last three or for years with updated info.
This isn’t a new trend.
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I think a u of SC Honors has historically cross shopped with Ivy as a perennial top Honors College and today maybe UGA Honors as it’s now top ranked. The reality is for a full pay family, when u see $375 vs 150k, it may matter !!
My daughter’s bff at Charleston got into Penn, Vandy, and Rice.
There’s likely more cross app than one thinks. But certainly dominant yields between the two when choosing toward Ivy/Ivy types vs the public school.
Then there’s the Ivy level kids that never apply due to cost. They exist too.
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I think people forget two major recent shifts: test optional and common app.
Prior to Covid students needed SAT/ACT to almost all schools but Regional.
When majority were test optional many kids applied to higher level schools if they had good GPA. With holistic approach at all schools application pool went out of control everywhere. 10 years ago nobody (or very very few) would apply to 20 schools. There was no point. Many schools were not even on common app.
So landscape was very different.
So now if without SAT student can go to Pitt vs Allegheny and will be accepted to both (assume same cost, I know it is big streatch) where most will go? Correct, most likely to big public. Exceptions are selected top private LACS.
Now South vs North.
Tuition is a big difference. When my oldest had option between UMD in state (but no really her major) with Presidential scholarship, GaTech OOS -no money, Case - sizeable scholarship, Umich OOS - no money, CMU - 5K FA, guess what was natural choice? GaTech is no brainer. Why? Top school for her major and half the cost of UMICH or CMU.
My youngest is at Rhodes. We specifically were looking for small LAC for her. Rhodes gave very good scholarship. Her friends are from Seattle WA, Chicago IL, Cincinnati OH, Atlanta GA, Austin TX, Memphis TN etc. So we pretty much have major cities from cost to cost. Yes, they all smart and all have scholarships. So what?
Last and not least. Being open Jewish with extended family in Israel, we were extremely happy last year that kids were not on campuses with encampments and non-stop demonstrations. Not that there are schools that immune from antisemitism, but safety is always priority.
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I noticed this before my kid applied and during COVID. My kid is class of 2027. When they applied Clemson, UGA, UF and over 60,000 applicants early action. USC, UTK, FSU and LSU had over 50,000. All used common app. I know lots of kids in my child’s HS class (2023) chose to go south.
My kid wanted warm weather and sports. They were not an academic ball of fire in HS, but is thriving academically and socially so it seems like a great decision. And with the merit money it’s way less than in state at Rutgers.
Edited by moderator to comply with forum rules
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it only makes sense to follow the money. out here on the best coast 
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allows for those unable to secure a spot in ucs and cal state universities with "an agreement among WICHE’s 16 members, through which 160+ participating public colleges and universities provide steep nonresident tuition savings for Western students.
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