My DD is very conflicted. The IVY was the top choice. Went on an OV but didn’t get an offer. Coach offer to write a letter of support (so NOT an offical supported slot). UAA school is offering a likely letter if offer is accepted. Also likes that school but not her #1 and prefers D1 as well. I am not sure how to guide her. Sure thing vs how sure? 50%, 70%???
Why give up on the dream before you even start the pursuit ?
Can she apply ED/REA to the Ivy and then ED2 to the second choice if the Ivy doesn’t work out? If she’s got D1 recruitable numbers, it seems the D3 school would be willing to leave a roster spot open for her. It’s worth asking about IMO.
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Investigate the Ivy letter of support a bit more and what the coach predicts it will do for her. If the Ivy is Harvard (and don’t reply here one way or the other), historically the admissions office has taken letters of support more seriously than other Ivies.
It is a bit hard without knowing the sport - if admitted in at the Ivy would she get playing time, do they cut (my daughter’s ivy team does)? How successful is the coach with a nudge with admissions? He should be able to tell her I do this yearly and get a few players in or last year I didn’t get any etc … if he is really interested in her vs just being nice.
As you know, D1 is a completely different time commitment including no study abroad (maybe an exception), winter and spring training (sport specific) and hard to schedule lab classes for a lot of sports.
How competitive is she for the school? Is she someone who truly has a shot if athletics are not considered?
It is important to consider WHY the Ivy is her top choice. It is fine if that is the case, but it helps put things in perspective.
Has she considered carefully how she feels about the role she will play in that team? Is it a team that has a history of walk-ons?
What is plan B, or even C if things go sideways? Does she have an athletic safety she will be happy with? This is probably not a top UAA school which is probably not too far behind the Ivy. I mean somewhere where she will be truly impactful and the coach with try to do everything they can to get her in no matter when she falls on their lap.
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I assumed T&F since user name is @trackisfun1 but I guess they didn’t say. Hopefully they will confirm.
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appears i don’t look at user names 
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The D3 has given her a lot of time already and the coach has asked for an answer by the end of the week. ED1 is what is expected.
Yes, it’s XC/T&F
It’s not Harvard
That is extremely generous. I am impressed they even gave her that long. If the coach waits too long he will not have someone to offer the spot to.
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If she decided to go the Ivy route, I’d leave sports out of conversation and tell the coach that she decided to take her shot at her number one school (for whatever non sport reason) because she believes she will regret down the line not trying. But also express that the she loves the other school and if that the Ivy does not work out she is planning on applying ED2. Would she have a place on the team if she were accepted then? In other words, ask about walking on. If the coach is able to offer support at that time they will.
I do not have confidence she would get in without support at the Ivy. What she liked it- Really connected to the girls on the team. Wants to push herself to get better. Also felt like academics were valued. For the D3 she would qualify for the UAA conference meet in two events even with her high school junior year track times. Even before new roster limits she wasn’t fast enough for the academic Power 4 D1 schools she would have wanted to attend. Didn’t want mid level D1 - academically or athletically (prefers high level D3 over those from both an academic and athletic standpoint). I hope this gives more clarity. It just seems like a risk I’m not sure I’d be willing to make but it’s ultimately her decision and I’m trying to help her talk it out.
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I agree.
I can only speak to my child’s experience at her Ivy - she hosts many of the recruits for visit days/overnights and her input does matter. The coach has been very clear that he values the opinion of current team members and has also made it clear that each recruit needs to be wowed - even if they decide not to move forward with an offer they want the recruit leaving and wanting the spot.
Someone that received an offer and is now on my daughter’s team was a “solid maybe” for the coach and the team really rallied around this recruit and told the coach they wanted her on the team and they felt strongly she would improve (crew) by the start of her freshman year. Another recruit was not given an offer and decided to apply without support and gained admission in ED. They are not a great fit for the team this early in the season and only time will tell if they remain on the team.
It does sound like your daughter had a very positive visit from her view - but I would be a bit concerned that it didn’t turn into a solid offer.
My daughter has no clue about test scores or grades and her overall impression is all the athletes invited on an official visit are strong academically.
No one without a LL can have confidence in that. The question is, is she strong enough to be competitive. The way I put it to my dad when my DD was applying was “won’t surprise if she gets in, won’t surprise me if she doesn’t.”
I get not wanting to wonder what if but I will reiterate its important to understand how realistic that shot is (acceptance rates aside).
You are talking about UAA schools here. Academics are valued.
That’s not a great reason for this strategy IMO. It only justifies if she wants to be at that school even if not playing the sport.
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It might be that OP didn’t develop as the coach hoped or something like. Basically not fast enough. I would expect someone who is competitive for an Ivy spot to be swimming in NESCAC and UAA offers. This is not the impression I got. It could also be they didn’t cast a wide enough net.
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And as a matter of pure speculation, if OP is not tippy top competitive in academic stats, the coach may have made an AI decision.
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Tough decision.
I don’t know how to rate the probability of admission with soft support. I think you need to rely on the coach for some detail and history.
Some of this probably depends on what plan C would be and if there’s a big gap between that and the UAA offer.
I’ll throw a TFXC thought in the mix. You say she’d already qualify for the UAA conference meet. Yes, that’s why they’re willing to use finite resources to get her. They expect her to score points.
Depending on the Ivy she might not have the same opportunities. Each school can bring around 30ish athletes to the indoor and outdoor conference meets. If you’re not one of those your competitive season can be pretty short.
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