Hello! I’m a current junior in high school trying to look into which schools to apply to (as a music composition major, with a possible double degree in mathematics or poli sci if the school allows). However, I’m getting mixed results from college admissions calculators and other sources when putting in my stats, and was wondering if anyone would be able to give an actually more accurate assessment of what my chances at acceptance would be at a few schools? I don’t know how reliable those admission calculators actually are. Thank you so much!
My stats:
-1560 SAT (760 math, 800 reading)
-1490 PSAT in 11th grade (750 math, 740 reading- met the National Merit state cutoff score but have yet to receive any information)
-3.93 unweighted GPA (something around 4.2-4.3 weighted, I’ve taken or am taking all 11 AP courses my school offers- with the exception of AP Studio Art, plus four honors courses and nine college courses)
-NHS member every year eligible (three years as of graduation)
-Thespians Society every year eligible (four years as of graduation)
-Founded school’s Tri-M chapter, elected president senior year
-Won a couple national composition competitions and have had my work played by major symphony orchestras
-Participated in a half dozen composition workshops and festivals with accredited organizations, including the Juiliard School and the Seattle Symphony
-Selected for high school regional Honors Orchestra four years in a row + possible All-State selection senior year in cello
But you have made an excellent list, with schools of all different levels of selectivity. As long as you would be happy enough to attend any of them (and if your family can afford them) you are set.
Congrats on being an excellent student. ANY school would be lucky to have you.
As I read your profile and formed some tentative ideas about your potential for admission to colleges, I didn’t know how these ideas would comport with estimates from CollegeVine. As an opinion, while I can’t say that CollegeVine’s estimates are accurate, it doesn’t appear that they are wildly inaccurate. As a general concept to consider (for all estimates that can be approached mathematically), even “back-of the-envelope” calculations can prove to be substantially more accurate than no approach whatsoever.
I know the calculators aren’t worth a whole lot generally speaking, but for my D23, they were surprisingly accurate. For the following, I’m using CV’s chancing.
• Got into every school CV calculated as a safety (some of which were safeties for almost everyone, and some of which the CC crowd might consider targets). Actual acceptance rates for this group ranged from 35-90%.
• Got into every school CV calculated as a match, except two – rejected from one that turned out to be much more selective than in recent years and should have been listed as a reach, and WL at another, which was closer to a reach for OOS applicants (she was OOS). Most of the schools in this category would be considered a match or soft reach by the CC crowd. Acceptance rates ranged from 15-50%, maybe?
• Got into every school CV listed as a slightly softer reach except for one (schools CC would consider reaches, with 10-20% admit rates, but CV usually gave my D23 a slightly higher chance than the actual admit rate). That one rejection came from a school with an 11% admit rate and a huge ED advantage (she was RD), so it really belongs in the most selective category, but I’m trying to use consistent numbers.
• Got rejected from every school CV listed as a hard reach, except for one WL (these were all under 10% admit rate – CV gave my D a slightly higher chance for these than the listed acceptance rates, but it still predicted the lowest chances of the schools on her list). The WL was for a school that WLs a lot of people, so that wasn’t a surprise.
So, for us – sample of one – it was actually a pretty good predictor.
ETA: I should add that the Niche calculator was, in fact, a joke.
I agree with other posters, the estimates aren’t really reliable, but they don’t seem wildly inaccurate. An Ivy League is going to be a reach for anyone (but a 20% chance is pretty good for Ivy league!) One thing - a music composition major may require a portfolio (which I’m sure you’re aware of), especially at a conservatory school (looks like Bard is one). I think the portfolio can play a signficant role in admissions in these types of programs, much more so than grades and test scores. BUt I’m not an expert, just something I came across when my D24 was applying to arts programs. Many schools, including non-conservatories, accept portfolios and I would expect that submitting one could only help your chances.
This right here. Once a school starts requiring things like auditions, portfolios, etc., then all chancing bets are off. One can chance you on your general odds of admission to the university or universities that don’t admit students to a particular major (like Harvard), but if admission is dependent on an audition or portfolio, nobody’s chancing would be any good, apart from an instructor who knows you in real life and can assess the quality of your work compared to the institutions in question.
So, which schools don’t require a portfolio/audition? Those would be the only ones that CC would have a decent shot at chancing you on.
We have communicated previously. Your music accomplishments render admissions calculators completely useless. For BM programs you will usually do a prescreen with portfolio (composition) and audition or interview. Admissions will depend heavily on the audition though for a BM program you may also need to get admitted to the larger university as well as the conservatory/school of music. The admission to the larger university will be affected by music. Your academic eligibility is good.
For BA programs you would submit a music supplement with recording/video, music resume and letters (1-2) of recommendation related to music. This supplement, with the accomplishments you have listed, make the most selective schools very possible.
I agree with @compmom. The CV admission calculator is basically worthless for any program where an audition and/or portfolio is the key admission criteria.
If your GPA and scores are in the middle 50% of submitted GPA/scores…
And you are unhooked…
Your chances are probably a bit below the overall admit rate of the round in which you are applying. Sometimes that can be hard to figure out, though, as not every school posts their ED or REA stats on the CDS.
So a very basic rule of thumb would be, if you are applying RD, just divide last year’s overall admit rate for all rounds in half. So at HYP, that would mean a ballpark chance of about 2-3% unhooked, RD. (which happens to be roughly what their RD admit rates are anyway…)
The online calculators cannot accurately calculate your percent probabilities for highly selective holistic schools because they have no visibility into your essays or LoR’s other than what you self report. Where they are useful is they give you a relative sense of how selective those colleges are for you as you start categorizing safeties, matches and reaches. With the information you provided, you would be competitive for any school and have a higher probability than the general admissions rate.
