<p>^ I don’t think AWS will be done in; they’ve got too many strengths for that to happen. I do think a whole lot of LACs a notch or two below the AWS level are in deep, deep doo-doo, and some may not survive in anything like their current form. Their endowments are shot to hell, far more students are demanding far more financial aid, and they can no longer raise tuition without driving away applicants and enrolled students in droves. So financially, they’re stuck. They’ll be forced to cut faculty (by attrition if possible, by layoffs if necessary), freeze faculty pay (and risk losing their best people), and slash the fancy amenities they’ve used as selling points. That means higher s/f ratios, bigger classes, less capable faculties, and fewer student amenities, all of which will make them relatively less attractive. They then risk losing their customer base to private research universities and some higher-end public research universities, forcing them to become less selective and potentially putting them in a downward spiral. Not a pretty prospect. Sure, AWS will probably be just fine. It’s the next several dozen LACs that are staring into an abyss.</p>
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<p>No way. There is only one top-50 LAC that would even in the wildest stretch of the imagination be a candidate for “staring into an abyss” and that’s only because of extraordinarily poor managment. I expect even this school to muddle through.</p>
<p>There will be some LACs and universities that don’t survive this economic downturn, but it won’t be the schools in the top tiers of the USNEWS rankings.</p>
<p>The thing that puts a college out of business is having no students. So start with schools under a 1000 enrollment to even consider a list of candidates.</p>
<p>^ I don’t mean literally going out of business. I mean facing the prospect of becoming significantly less selective and less prestigious—as measured either by the strength of their student body or the strength of the their faculty—in order to fill seats, and consequently having to change, at a fundamental level, their “business model” (for lack of a better term) and their own sense of who they are, and who they’re realistically trying to recruit. For colleges that pride themselves on their place in the pecking order, that’s “staring into the abyss.” Indeed, for a lot of the people associated with them that’s more important than whether they manage to keep the doors open.</p>
<p>“You do not have a history going back well over 200 years in some cases to fold under this one economic downturn”</p>
<p>Tell that to Lehman Brothers!</p>
<p>Drexel +36%
Bryn Mawr +6%
Temple +1%
Penn State +6%
Villanova (13%)
Swarthmore (10%)
Penn basically flat</p>
<p>College of New Jersey basically flat
Montclair State +20%
Rutgers down slightly</p>
<p>[State</a> colleges get look as good value | Philadelphia Inquirer | 03/15/2009](<a href=“Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, and New Jersey News”>Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, and New Jersey News)</p>
<p>So overall application seem to be up…but how will this translate to attendance come the fall?</p>
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<p>Not exactly a non-profit. Extreme greed and personal gain does funny things to people (although I would imagine college president salaries are going to fall).</p>
<p>Queen’s mom, exactly, it would be interesting to see Common Applications schools per student last year v. this year.</p>
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<p>Not intentionally, anyway.</p>
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<p>With apologies to Mark Twain, I think that the news of the demise of many private school has been greatly exaggerated --and this in spite of the cynical wishful thinking exhibited by some in this thread: <a href=“http://talk.collegeconfidential.com/parents-forum/664922-applications-drop-top-lacs-economy-sours-bloomberg.html[/url]”>http://talk.collegeconfidential.com/parents-forum/664922-applications-drop-top-lacs-economy-sours-bloomberg.html</a></p>
<p>Actually, schools might see record attendances and complaining voices about overcrowding.</p>
<p>I am not predicting the demise of private schools (even the lower tier ones). I do expect that if the current economic contraction lasts as long as I believe it will, these schools are going to be forced to change in the way they do business.</p>
<p>Of course, there isn’t a single school in the country that won’t have to reevaluate its business model. However, there is no reason to believe that private schools will suffer more than schools that have presented systemic budget deficiencies for years. Inasmuch as the current stimulus largesse willdo miracles in erasing gaping deficits, little will be available to address the longer term issues. </p>
<p>In the end, money will still recognize and reward excellence. The real question that remains unanswered is if there will be sufficient people with spendable money to make the choices in education. Considering the acceptance rates of yesterday and the economic resilience of our country, I believe that schools that were not bleeding money and were not on public coffers life support will have equal or better chances to adapt their business methods to the new economy.</p>
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<p>Sufficient for what? Surely there will be enough to support the best schools, but what about the schools catering to the middle tier (academically) of the middle class (economically)?</p>
<p>Official UChicago numbers are in, applications up 9.6% year over year.</p>
<p>[College</a> again attracts larger pool of applicants](<a href=“http://chronicle.uchicago.edu/090305/college.shtml]College”>College again attracts larger pool of applicants)</p>
<p>this Claremont McKenna article (with a competitive bent) has </p>
<p>CMC apps +2%
Pomona apps down 2%</p>
<p>[CMC</a> Defies Liberal Arts Trend with Steady Applicant Numbers|The Forum](<a href=“http://cmcforum.com/news/03312009-cmc-defies-liberal-arts-trend-with-steady-applicant-numbers]CMC”>http://cmcforum.com/news/03312009-cmc-defies-liberal-arts-trend-with-steady-applicant-numbers)</p>
<p>I’ll recompile the numbers soon.</p>
<p>Johns Hopkins +1%
Dickinson (5%)</p>
<p>[url=<a href=“http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/03/31/AR2009033104112.html?hpid=topnews&sid=ST2009040104792]washingtonpost.com[/url”>http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/03/31/AR2009033104112.html?hpid=topnews&sid=ST2009040104792]washingtonpost.com[/url</a>]</p>
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<p>According to the numbers reported at [Freshman</a> Class Profile, Claremont McKenna College](<a href=“http://www.claremontmckenna.edu/admission/fr-class-profile.php]Freshman”>http://www.claremontmckenna.edu/admission/fr-class-profile.php), the number of applicants was 4,275, and the number admitted 671 for an admission rate of 16%.</p>
<p>Also see <a href=“http://talk.collegeconfidential.com/parents-forum/677825-regular-decision-class-2013-statistics.html[/url]”>http://talk.collegeconfidential.com/parents-forum/677825-regular-decision-class-2013-statistics.html</a></p>
<p>The 2% growth might not based on the numbers reported in the 2008-2009 CDS (3670 applicants), but on the number of 4,178 which was the preliminary released application number for the Class of 2012. The differences stems from using the CDS methodology and the Common Application supplemental requirements.</p>
<p>Idad-- UChicago had an amazing marketing campaign. I hope the PR dept is getting recognized for it. It wouldn’t surprise me if that was part of there upswing. They deserve it!</p>
<p>Indiana University-Bloomington up 6% (increase was up 6% for instate and OOS students)</p>
<p>The vice provost for enrollment indicated deposits are down slightly compared to this time last year. He believes fewer students are putting down double deposits. Like many others in his position he said the normal enrollment rules don’t apply this year due to the economy. Usually IU cuts of applications on 4/1. They will continue to accept applications until 5/1 this year.</p>
<p>Colgate apps down 18%</p>
<p>7750 this year reported here:
<a href=“http://talk.collegeconfidential.com/colgate-university/683387-2009-acceptance-rate.html[/url]”>http://talk.collegeconfidential.com/colgate-university/683387-2009-acceptance-rate.html</a></p>
<p>9415 for class of 2012 reported here:
[Colgate:</a> Class of 2012 Profile](<a href=“http://www.colgate.edu/DesktopDefault1.aspx?tabid=555]Colgate:”>http://www.colgate.edu/DesktopDefault1.aspx?tabid=555)</p>