This conversation is all over the place. If I were having this conversation with a friend IRL, I would focus on 2 main aspects: admissions and costs.
Admissions–I recommend getting acquainted with common data sets. When looking at the data, pay attention to the 25th and 75th percentile scores. If your students’ scores are near the 25th %, the odds of admission are low. If above the 75th%, odds are high.
Here are your IS referenced schools:
https://oirp.ncsu.edu/facts-figures/external-reports/common-data-set/
http://oira.unc.edu/facts-and-figures/data-summaries-and-publications/common-data-set/
https://irap.appstate.edu/institutional-research
Based on their real scores as of now, the conversation taking place is extremely hypothetical. App is a real option. I am not sure about UNC or NCSU. They really need to understand how the fit the admitted profiles.
The other conversation, $$, I am at a loss. Fordham is incredibly expensive. My dd was accepted with a full-tuition scholarship and even with full-tuition covered, our estimation of what it would cost for room, board, books,and travel to and from was at minimum $18,000 (that is more than full cost of attendance at App https://admissions.appstate.edu/cost $14,416 in-state tuition, room, meal plan and textbooks, 2016-17.)
FWIW, I would not even approach the discussion via favorites or dream schools. I would approach every single school option based on estimated cost of attendance first and foremost. I would contact financial aid offices and ask specifically about how they would evaluate your financial situation. Do they meet need? How will they treat your assets? etc. I would investigate seeing if you can get an early financial read, but I would only pursue that at schools where your dds’ stats are clearly closer to the 75th percentile with the possible exception of App. I would ask App about Pell/state grants based on your situation.
Another FWIW, if you want to seek merit aid (it is the way our kids attend college), your dds really need to start looking at much lower ranked private schools. That is where they will find scholarship $$ that might bring down the cost to comparable to App in-state. I have been very proactive in the “merit hunt” pursuit, and you have to think about national and international competition for merit. You cannot compare your kids to your high school. You cannot compare your kids to people you know. Merit competition is national and global and the kids are going to be stellar in all directions. The best way to pursue merit is by ensuring they are in the very top %s of the school’s stats and that they bring something more to the school.