As a parent of 2 Ivy athletes and a just turned 11 year old, I’ll take a stab at this.
There was no way that we would have had the slightest inkling that our boys would have ended up as recruited athletes based on who they were at 10. They tried out all of the usual sports for that age–soccer, baseball, track events, skiing, a little football. They biked around a lot and went to a lot of road races with their dad because that was what he loved to do. They were okay athletes, pretty awful at some sports and quite good, though never the best on the team, at others. They stayed active, and in high school, grew into their current sport (rowing). But gotta say: as parents, we didn’t even think about crew-- other coaches/peers noticed their size and strengths and recommended that they try it. When they said they wanted to try it, we did the little we needed to do to make it happen, and that was that.
My younger son has a friend who he has grown up with since they were babies who did all of the same sports that he did (okay, not rowing). His final growth spurt is coming late, and athletics weren’t the road to success for him. However, with his parent’s help finding online classes and summer camps, he pursued his other talents and interests–math and computer science, did some solid community service side by side with his dad, and ended up with admits from some of the best D3 schools in the country.
My current 11 yo is trying a lot of stuff out, and not particularly shining at anything. We’re thinking about rowing down the road naturally, but also noting her interest in playing minecraft and that math comes easily to her and that she’s very social and likes to be around a lot of people a lot of the time. But we’re not doing anything in particular about any of that. Ten is the age for exploration.
There is no golden ticket to a great school. I think the best thing we can do as adults is give the kids we love lots of opportunities to have fun and try out different stuff; not take any of it too seriously or push them too hard; spend a lot of time quietly observing them as they grow; and embrace the way their bodies and interests change over the years
Then, as they move into their teen years, listen to what teachers and various coaches notice about the kids’ strenghths, and encourage them them jump into one or two things that they really like and seem to have a knack for. I get why athletics seems like the easy road into a selective college, but 90 percent of high school seniors get in to those schools in other ways.